881
FXUS64 KTSA 051742
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

 - Daily shower and thunderstorm chances persist through Monday.
   Heavy rain and localized flooding are the main concerns.

 - A few storms could become marginally severe this weekend into
   Monday. Main hazards will be damaging wind gusts and large
   hail.

 - Hot and humid weather arrives next week, with heat headlines
   likely.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Mid/upper-level low, currently spinning over northwest Mexico,
will steadily lift northeast over the next 48 to 72 hours. A weak
lobe of vorticity/shortwave trough downstream from its center has
generated scattered showers across southeast OK and western AR
this morning and early this afternoon. This isolated to widely
scattered activity will run parallel to the 850-700mb moisture
axis and is expected to mostly remain south of I-44 and persist
through this afternoon. 12Z RAOBs from SGF and OUN and mesoscale
analysis data show PWATs range between 1.5 to 2.0 inches north-to-
south across the forecast area. Daytime heating in the afternoon
should further destabilize the environment and help intensify
showers and thunderstorms a bit, causing periods of moderate to
heavy rainfall with stronger updrafts that are able to form. Mid-
level flow and lift across the region continues to be weak and
therefore the severe threat remains very low. Minor/nuisance
flooding will the be the primary hazard with slow-moving and/or
training storms this afternoon.

Convection this afternoon will wane sometime around sunset with
the loss of daytime heating. As the aforementioned upper-level low
draws closer to the area, a few showers may linger across
southeast OK this evening and overnight tonight. No impacts
expected. Otherwise, cloud coverage will remain thick tonight and
will help keep temperatures mild and muggy. Overnight lows will
range from the upper 60s to lower 70s.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1202 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Low-level moisture will continue to be further advected and drawn
northward from the Gulf region Saturday and Sunday as the upper-
level low drifts over western TX, western OK, and eventually over
eastern KS by Sunday morning. As a result, precipitation chances
will become much more widespread and intensify. Heaviest rainfall
is expected to occur Saturday night through Sunday, when the low
is at its closest proximity to the area. The low and its trough
axis shifts northeast and away from the area late Sunday night
into Monday, with mostly dry weather by Monday afternoon. Rainfall
amounts between today (Friday) and Monday morning will vary and
highly dependent where training and more robust updrafts in storms
set up, but most locations are forecast to receive one to two
inches, with isolated pockets of four inches or greater. Flash
flood guidance shows widespread values around three to four inches
before flash flooding become a concern. Will forgo a Flood Watch
at this time, but may need one if QPF trends rise. As for the
severe threat, wind shear will increase Saturday and into Sunday,
supporting the possibility for a few marginally severe
thunderstorms, especially Saturday night into Sunday. Damaging
wind gusts and large hail will be the primary concerns other than
flooding.

As the upper-level low/trough exit Monday into Tuesday, strong
upper-level ridging will build into the region. This will cause a
drying and warming trend through the workweek, with daytime
temperatures in the 90s returning for most locations by Tuesday.
Heat headlines, for at least parts of the CWA, look probable as
early as Monday, with better confidence of heat advisory criteria
being reached on Tuesday. Temperatures stay unseasonably hot with
mostly dry weather through Friday. Long-range models shows the
next best chance of precipitation and cooler weather will arrive
beyond the long-term period as a cold front approaches from the
north.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Jun 5 2026

Widespread MVFR cigs will continue to gradually lift and scatter
this afternoon with conditions improving to VFR across E OK sites
earlier this afternoon than NW AR sites. Scattered showers with
some isolated thunder will possible through the afternoon as well,
mainly for AR terminals and across far E OK. Showers should wane
with sunset this evening with VFR conditions prevailing into the
overnight hours. Low clouds will then surge back northward into
the region late tonight into tomorrow with MVFR and IFR conditions
likely by daybreak Saturday. Increasing shower and thunderstorm
chances are also noted Saturday morning across much of the area.
Gusty southerly winds this afternoon will generally become light
tonight into tomorrow.

Bowlan

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   71  81  69  83 /  20  60  80  90
FSM   71  83  71  85 /  40  80  70 100
MLC   71  82  70  84 /  50  90  80  80
BVO   70  81  66  82 /  20  50  90  90
FYV   69  80  69  82 /  20  80  70 100
BYV   67  79  67  81 /  20  70  50  90
MKO   69  80  68  82 /  40  80  80  90
MIO   70  81  68  82 /  20  60  70 100
F10   69  80  68  83 /  30  80  80  90
HHW   70  81  70  83 /  60  90  80  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...04