074
FXUS64 KTSA 250524
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

 - Above average temperatures continue Friday, with low to medium
   chances (20-40%) of showers and thunderstorms, mainly north of
   I-44.

 - Increasing and more widespread chances for rain and a few
   storms are expected this weekend as an upper disturbance moves
   across the area.

 - Additional widespread and heavier precipitation, as well as a
   cool down, look probable by mid to late week next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Friday Night)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

Mid-level ridging is expected to remain anchored across the
western Gulf coast and will maintain unseasonably warm conditions
through the short-term period. Light south to southeast winds will
become better established by daybreak Friday, increasing low-
level moisture advection slightly through the daytime. Afternoon
high temperatures will continue to run about 4 to 8 degrees above
seasonal average, topping out in the mid to upper 80s (north) and
low to mid 90s (south) underneath partly cloudy skies.

Latest GOES-19 water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough
beginning to lift out of the Desert Southwest. Model guidance is
in good agreement that the trough will continue lifting and reach
the High Plains by Friday afternoon. Ahead of this feature, a
plume of mid- and high-level moisture will overspread the area.
Although most global models keep the forecast area dry, consensus
in hi-res CAMs produce spotty, low-impact showers through the
daytime, mainly confined north of I-44. A brief lull in
precipitation is forecast to occur late Friday afternoon through
much of Friday evening before increasing again as isentropic
ascent and forcing ahead of the trough axis interact with the
richer moisture overnight Friday. The low precipitation chances
(20-30%) will primarily remain focused north of I-44 and near the
OK/KS border. Overall, impacts will remain low through the short-
term period.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 1126 PM CDT Thu Sep 24 2026

The shortwave trough will finally topple over the upper ridge and
flatten as it slides east across the Central/Southern Plains over
the weekend. Latest model guidance suggests the best rain chances
(20-40%) during the day Saturday will remain near and north of
I-44 until the trough axis is able to crest the ridge axis, which
likely will occur overnight Saturday into Sunday morning. This is
when the highest and most widespread precipitation chances
(30-70%) will occur. With that said, still not expecting a wash-
out of rain this weekend, as shower/convective activity should
stay hit or miss with the exception of overnight Saturday. Though
precip chances get relatively high this weekend for many
locations, rainfall amounts will remain generally low and should
remain below half an inch.

Confidence continues to increase on a widespread rain event
Tuesday and Wednesday, and perhaps lingering into Thursday.
Consensus in ensemble and deterministic global model data continue
to show a robust upper-level trough and associated surface low
pressure/cold front will impact much of the Central CONUS mid to
late week. Latest model runs are a little more murky and
indecisive with the evolution of the trough/upper low. Its
evolution may be dependent on what is currently Hurricane Polo and
what it does in the eastern Pacific as it moves inland sometime
between Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning. The slower/delayed
inland movement, depicted in the 12z run of the ECMWF (in
comparison to the GFS), slows the progression of the trough as it
is ingested into the robust trough/upper low. If this verified,
this would keep the moderate to heavy rain chances lingering
longer as the trough/upper low slows down, as well as delay the
passage of the cold front through the forecast area. Needless to
say, there is still a lot of uncertainty with regards to the
synoptic pattern beyond Tuesday. However, confidence remains high
that widespread moderate to heavy rain will occur mid to late
week, but detail will continue to be refined over the next several
days.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 AM CDT Fri Sep 25 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   87  69  89  69 /  10  10  20  60
FSM   91  67  93  69 /   0   0   0  10
MLC   94  68  95  69 /   0   0   0  30
BVO   83  64  85  64 /  30  20  40  60
FYV   89  63  88  64 /   0  10  10  20
BYV   85  64  86  66 /   0   0  10  20
MKO   89  66  91  67 /   0   0  10  40
MIO   82  68  84  67 /  10  10  20  60
F10   89  66  92  67 /  10  10  10  50
HHW   89  66  92  67 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...05