467
FXUS64 KTSA 150546
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

 - Potential for locally heavy rainfall thru mid-morning across
southeast Oklahoma into northwest Arkansas. A Flood Watch remains in
effect thru 10 AM this morning.

 - Low-end (20-30%), spotty showers/storms possible this afternoon
across southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. No additional
impacts expected from this activity.

 - A weak front approaching the area from the north will bring low-
medium chances (20-40%) for storms for far northeast Oklahoma and
far northwest Arkansas Thursday into Thursday night.

 - Precipitation chances drop off and temperatures increase by the
end of the week as ridging builds in aloft. Hot and dry weather will
likely persist thru the weekend and into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

A well defined MCV continues to work its way across far southeast OK
early this morning. Models are in good agreement it will continue to
shift east-northeastward into northwest AR through the early morning
hours this morning. Elevated convection rapidly developed on the
eastern fringes of the center earlier Monday evening. Latest hi-res
model guidance indicates additional convection development across
far eastern OK/west-central AR by 3-4 AM, spreading northward into
far northwest AR by mid-morning. Still some uncertainty how all of
this will evolve, but signals for moderate to heavy rain remain
intact as the MCV continues to move east/northeastward through the
morning. A Flood Watch remains in effect for much of southeast OK
and all of the northwest AR counties through 10 AM this morning. The
MCV and associated rainfall is expected to shift north and east of
the forecast area by late morning.

With deep layer moisture still in place, a few diurnally-driven
pulse-type showers and thunderstorms may develop this afternoon,
mainly across southeast OK and northwest AR. Kept low-end PoPs (20-
30%) through this afternoon before dissipating around sunset this
evening. Otherwise, expect mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies by
this afternoon, with temperatures rising into the upper 80s and
lower 90s for most locations. Winds will remain out of the south or
southwest between 5-15 mph.

Mejia
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Monday)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

The overall trend in the long-term period will be drying out and
warming up as upper-level troughing weakens and ridging begins to
dominate over the area. A shortwave trough will move across the
northern/central Plains during the daytime Wednesday. This will push
a surface cold front southward from the central Plains towards OK
Wednesday afternoon/evening. Except for a slight chance (10-20%
chance) of pulse showers/storms during the daytime, mainly for far
northeast OK and far northwest AR, the best support for rain will
likely remain north of the forecast area through the day. However,
guidance suggests showers and thunderstorms that develop along the
frontal boundary will spread southward into the forecast area by
Thursday morning, mostly impacting northeast OK and far northwest
AR. Maintained low storm chances near the KS/MO borders through
Thursday night.

Upper-level ridging really begins to build over the region by Friday
and rain chances become suppressed through the upcoming weekend and
into early next week as the ridge strengthens. Sweltering heat will
become the main headline, if not by Friday, then surely by Saturday
as afternoon temperatures soar into the mid-upper 90s and heat
indices jump between 100-105+F each afternoon through the end of the
forecast period for most locations. Heat Advisories look probable
for at least some portions of the CWA Friday-Monday.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1240 AM CDT Tue Jul 15 2025

Compact zone of showers and storms approaching KFSM area is
expected to either persist ENE and/or show redevelopment to the
north into far NW AR overnight. Forecast will have a window of
flight impacts for western AR terminals overnight. Patchy fog also
possible again overnight. Early morning convection spread more
east of the fcst sites soon after sunrise with VFR conditions
expected. Additional afternoon showers and storms are likely but
overall coverage should trend down from recent days with chances
remaining below mentionable levels.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   92  75  93  76 /   0   0  10  10
FSM   91  75  94  75 /  30  10  10   0
MLC   91  74  93  74 /  20  10  10   0
BVO   91  73  94  74 /   0   0  10  20
FYV   89  72  91  72 /  30  10  20  10
BYV   88  72  91  72 /  30  10  30  10
MKO   89  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
MIO   90  74  93  73 /  10  10  10  20
F10   91  74  92  74 /  10  10  10  10
HHW   90  73  91  73 /  20  10   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ049-053-069-072-
     074>076.

AR...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...07