109
FXUS64 KTSA 051127
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
627 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 625 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - An extended period of hot weather will persist through the
   upcoming week. Heat headlines will be needed most days.

 - Low afternoon rain/storm chances are now in the forecast for
   the weekend and again late next week. What rain that does fall
   is not likely to reverse recent drought trends.

 - Localized fire weather concerns will exist most days due to the
   worsening drought.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

The unseasonable heat will continue Saturday, with record or near
record highs at some locations, especially KFSM and KFYV.
Afternoon highs look to be slightly hotter than Friday in most
places, with readings topping out in the 100 to 105 degree range.
Afternoon heat index values will reach or exceed 105 in most
places, and have expanded the heat advisory to include the entire
forecast area. A few isolated showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop during the afternoon and early evening, with
far eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas seeing the greatest
coverage. Any rainfall will be brief and will provide only
temporary relief from the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1131 PM CDT Fri Sep 4 2026

Isolated shower and storm coverage may be slightly greater Sunday
and may also extend farther to the west. Otherwise, more of the
same is expected with regards to the heat. The extreme heat will
continue through at least the middle of next week, with heat
headlines likely to be required each day.

The upper ridge may retrograde to the west enough to allow a
backdoor cold front to move into the area by late next week, but
uncertainty is high on just how far south and west any cooler air
makes it. Shower and storm chances will also increase if the
boundary does make it into our area, but rainfall amounts are not
likely to be significant.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions with near persistent daily trends are forecast.
Isolated afternoon showers and storms may develop from western AR
into far E OK, however coverage is expected to remain very low and
will not include a mention at specific terminals at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  79 102  79 /   0   0  10  10
FSM  105  77 105  77 /  20  20  20  20
MLC  102  76 102  75 /  10  10  20  20
BVO  103  71 102  72 /   0   0  10  10
FYV  103  71 103  72 /  20  20  20  20
BYV  101  75 100  71 /  20  20  20  20
MKO  103  74 103  75 /  10  10  20  20
MIO  102  74 101  74 /  10  10  20  20
F10  101  75 102  74 /  10  10  10  10
HHW  100  74 101  75 /  10  10  20  20

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...07