887
FXUS64 KTSA 102334
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

 - A Slight Risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall exists
   today and tonight.

 - A strong cold front arrives Wednesday and a light freeze may
   occur for a few areas in northeast Oklahoma and northwest
   Arkansas Thursday morning.

 - Fire weather concerns uptick through the rest of the week and
   into the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Scattered thunderstorms have developed across far southeast
Oklahoma in the past couple of hours in response to the low level
jet that extends east Texas into southeast Oklahoma and southwest
Arkansas. This activity should remain sub-severe or at most
marginally severe into the afternoon given its location in a
relative minimum of instability and a lack of effective shear.
This should shift largely east of the area by mid afternoon.

Attention then turns to potential for isolated thunderstorm
development mid to late afternoon across mainly northeast
Oklahoma. There have been inconsistent signals in the CAMs over
the last 24 to 35 hours that one or two storms could develop
within an instability axis stretched across that area. Current
mesoanalysis shows plenty of MUCAPE already along with more than
sufficient effective shear. If a storm can go in this environment,
a severe weather potential exists, primarily in the form of large
hail and wind gusts.

The more widespread thunderstorm development and highest threat
for severe weather, including tornadoes, remains likely to occur
from mid to late evening into the early morning Wednesday. A
squall line is expected to develop to the west of the area early
evening as a mid level disturbance moves in ahead of the main
upper level storm system located well to the southwest in Texas.
Low level shear should increase through the evening with the ramp
up of the low level jet, leading to tornado potential with any
favored areas of the expected line. This should be most likely
across parts of eastern Oklahoma, earlier in the event. The line
will shift eastward overnight, with the chance of some decrease
with eastward extent possible given the lower instability in far
eastern Oklahoma and into western Arkansas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

A strong cold front will move through the area beginning daybreak
Wednesday, with falling temperatures and strong and gusty
northerly winds. Some potential for showers and isolated
thunderstorms will exist during mainly the morning along and ahead
of the front. However, any severe weather threat will be done by
daybreak. The gusty winds and falling dew points behind the front
may lead to localized fire weather concerns, primarily across
northeast Oklahoma, depending on how much rainfall occurs with
tonight`s event. Surface high pressure will move into the area
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, with good radiational
cooling conditions leading to widespread lows in the 30s. Parts of
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas will likely freeze.
Southerly winds should return Thursday as the surface high shifts
east, with warmer afternoon temperatures especially for northeast
Oklahoma. The warmup will continue into Friday and Saturday ahead
of another strong cold front during the latter part of the
weekend. Low chances for rain will exist across far eastern
Oklahoma into western Arkansas, with at least some potential for
wintry precipitation types Sunday night into Monday morning with
the coldest air. Much colder daytime temperatures than we have
seen of late will open next week, along with additional
opportunities for freezing temperatures. The freezing
temperatures, both Wednesday night/Thursday morning and again
early next week, may have an impact on fuels across the area,
leading to an uptick in the fire weather potential.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Tue Mar 10 2026

Not too many changes were made to the previous TAFs. A line of
strong and severe thunderstorms will move from west to east
across the terminals from mid evening tonight into early
Wednesday morning, with a period of IFR conditions and strong VRB
wind gusts. An abrupt wind shift and increase in speed and gusts
will occur at all sites from Wednesday morning and through the
afternoon following a strong cold frontal passage. MVFR ceilings
should occur with the front at most sites, but should trend to VFR
by early to mid afternoon for OK TAF sites, with MVFR hanging on
through later afternoon or early evening for AR TAF sites.

Mejia

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  55  64  35 /  10  80  40   0
FSM   80  63  73  37 /  10  90  60   0
MLC   79  60  71  37 /  10  90  40   0
BVO   86  49  62  30 /  10  70  30   0
FYV   78  57  67  32 /  10  90  60   0
BYV   78  58  64  34 /  10  80  70   0
MKO   80  58  67  34 /  10  90  40   0
MIO   80  50  62  32 /  10  60  60   0
F10   81  57  68  35 /  10  90  30   0
HHW   78  62  76  38 /  10  90  50  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...67