869
FXUS64 KTSA 201733
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

 - Very hot conditions are expected through Tuesday, with
   afternoon heat indices of 105-113 for much of the area.

 - A weak cold front will bring some heat relief Wednesday, but
   the heat will return late week.

 - Isolated showers and storms may develop Monday afternoon, with
   dry weather expected until at least Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

Upper ridging continues to build across the central CONUS
resulting in very hot and humid conditions across much of the
forecast area this afternoon. Temperatures are running a few
degrees warmer than yesterday with dewpoints holding in the mid
70s for most locations. Therefore, with the recent trends in
observations this morning, have upgraded portions of the Heat
Advisory to an Extreme Heat Warning for this afternoon with heat
indices in excess of 110 degrees likely through late afternoon.
Observations and soundings from this morning also continue to show
a fairly deep moist plume extending across much of eastern
Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. This could lead to more isolated
to widely scattered showers or thunderstorms through the afternoon
hours, especially across northwest Arkansas. The strengthening
ridge axis will likely limit overall coverage to less than
previous days, but will maintain low PoPs across western Arkansas
through the afternoon. Severe weather is not expected, just some
wind gusts of 30 to 40 mph with any storms that can develop. Any
activity will quickly dissipate toward sunset. Tonight will be
very warm again, with lows in the mid 70s to low 80s.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1233 PM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

The heat likely peaks tomorrow with widespread triple digit
temperatures and continued humidity leading to widespread heat
index values ranging from 105 to 115 degrees Tuesday afternoon.
Have upgraded the Extreme HEat Watch to a warning for Tuesday and
expanded the coverage based on latest trends in the data. A strong
mid level trough moving through the Great Lakes will force a weak
frontal boundary southwestward through the region tomorrow
afternoon and evening. Low level moisture will likely pool along
this boundary across portions of northeast Oklahoma, leading to
those more extreme heat index values along with light winds making
it feel rather atrocious at times Tuesday afternoon. Strong upper
ridging overhead will keep any rain chances along the boundary
below mentionable though an isolated shower or two could be
possible across far northeast Oklahoma. This boundary will usher
in northerly winds along with slightly cooler and drier conditions
through mid week, taking an edge off the extreme heat, with more
normal late July conditions expected.

The center of the ridge looks like it will begin to retrograde
westward through late week and into the weekend. This will allow a
few shortwave troughs to drop southeastward in the northwest flow
aloft on the periphery of the forecast area beginning Thursday
into the first part of the weekend. Scattered rain chances will
return to at least the northeastern half of the forecast area
during this time. Widespread rain chances will remain limited
however. Upper ridging builds back over the Southern Plains by
late in the weekend and early next week bringing a return to more
excessive heat conditions to close out July.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 623 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions will continue for the entire forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 103  78  94 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   78 103  79  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   78 101  79  97 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   78 102  74  92 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   76  98  75  92 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   75 100  72  90 /   0  10   0   0
MKO   77 101  78  95 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   77 101  73  91 /   0   0   0   0
F10   77 101  77  94 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  99  78  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-059-
     063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ068-069-172.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ055>058-
     060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-272.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-
     053-055>067-070-071-073>075-154-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-010-011-
     119-120-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120.

     Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ129-219-
     220.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ129-
     219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05