894
FXUS64 KTSA 292330
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
630 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 624 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

 - A thunderstorm complex may move into northeast Oklahoma and
   northwest Arkansas late this evening and overnight with a
   limited severe weather threat.

 - Rain chances decrease and temperatures warm this weekend into
   early next week. Afternoon heat index values may reach tripke
   digits in a few spots.

 - Unsettled weather returns later next week with daily shower and
   storm chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed across
northwest Arkansas early this afternoon. This activity will
persist until around sunset before diminishing. Slow moving storms
may result in locally heavy rainfall.

A storm complex is expected to develop late this afternoon and
early evening from southern Kansas into northwest Oklahoma. These
storms may maintain their intensity into northeast Oklahoma and
possibly northwest Arkansas by late this evening and overnight,
with a limited severe weather potential, mainly in the form of
damaging winds.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

An upper ridge will build over the area this weekend into early
next week, with afternoon temperatures warming to near or above
90 degrees in most places by Sunday and Monday. With a humid
airmass remaining in place, afternoon heat index values may reach
100 degrees in some spots. Thunderstorm chances look limited
during this time frame, but a few storms may drift into northeast
Oklahoma from the west Saturday evening before the ridge
strengthens.

Unsettled weather looks to return Tuesday through the end of next
week as a weakness in the upper ridge develops over the southern
plains. This will result in a return of daily shower and
thunderstorm chances and temperatures cooling back closer to the
seasonal averages.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 624 PM CDT Fri May 29 2026

Clusters of thunderstorms developing this across northeast OK
will eventually move into northeast OK this evening, and result in
at least brief deterioration of flight conditions at NE OK
terminals through around 06z. Potential impacts farther east into
northwest AR remain less certain though PROB30 will continue to be
carried overnight. Potential for low clouds and fog appears less
tonight and likely will be dependent on evolution of storms
tonight. Outside of storm impacts and potential fog, VFR
conditions will prevail with a bit stronger south winds Saturday
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   70  89  72  91 /  40  10  20   0
FSM   69  91  71  92 /  20  10  10  10
MLC   72  91  74  92 /  10   0  10   0
BVO   67  89  69  91 /  40  20  20   0
FYV   66  87  68  89 /  40  30  20  10
BYV   64  85  67  87 /  50  50  30  20
MKO   70  90  72  91 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   67  87  70  90 /  50  30  20  10
F10   70  90  72  92 /  20  10  10   0
HHW   72  90  73  91 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...14