279
FXUS64 KTSA 272314
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
614 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

 - Rains gradually end by Sunday evening. Mostly dry weather on
   Monday but expect isolated showers and storms primarily SE OK.

 - Above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

 - Unsettled weather for mid to late week. Expect several periods
   of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Some severe
   weather potential will exist as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Ongoing showers and isolated thunderstorms across far E OK and NW
AR is in advance of the slow moving mid level trough that will
continue southeastward. Corresponding zone of low level upglide
will decrease through the afternoon and precip coverage is
expected to gradually wane. The resultant cold pool sfc boundary
will arc across the western periphery of the forecast area by late
afternoon and a low chance of afternoon and evening storms will
reside near the boundary. Similar pattern of strengthening upglide
overnight is expected to focus primarily across SE OK and persist
into the day Monday. Guidance favors this scenario but with much
less coverage than the ongoing activity and precip chances will
continue into Monday but remain low. Lesser cloud cover and
warming profiles will lead to most locations being noticeably
warmer on Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Tuesday is expected to be warm and breezy as the mid week storm
system begins to impact the Plains. A corridor of widespread rains
will develop west of the region Tuesday night and spread slowly
eastward into the day Wednesday. Guidance has come into somewhat
better agreement on timing for a renewed corridor of showers and
storms developing late Wednesday into Thursday across the local
region. Deep moisture plume from tropical remnant of Pollo will be
ingested into this storm system and expectations remain for heavy
rainfall potential however the axis of heaviest rains remains
uncertain. Wind fields will strengthen as the storm system
approaches but instability will be tempered by the deep moist
profiles. These details will impact any severe weather potential
and will also be refined in later forecasts.

Timing of the upper trough to pass across the Plains has not yet
become consistent with widely varying solutions still being shown.
The forecast will retain a low chance of rain into next weekend
largely a reflection of the timing uncertainty. Once the upper
trough does pass a cooler and drier airmass likely overspreads the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 614 PM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

VFR conditions are most likely to prevail through the period, with
SCT to BKN clouds at 6-7kft expected to persist. Winds should be
under 10 kts and from an easterly direction. A low chance of
shower/isolated storm development this evening and overnight
exists, with MLC most at risk for on-station impacts, although
that risk remains very low and will not be included in the TAF.
Also keeping an eye out for fog potential at the favored NW AR
terminals given the rains today. With guidance not really
indicating much potential, will continue to leave any mention out
of the TAFs but will monitor observational trends.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  85  68  89 /  20  10   0  10
FSM   64  88  66  92 /  10  10   0   0
MLC   65  90  67  93 /  30  30   0   0
BVO   61  84  63  87 /  20  10   0  10
FYV   61  83  60  87 /  10  10   0   0
BYV   61  82  59  86 /  10  10   0   0
MKO   64  86  66  90 /  20  20   0  10
MIO   64  81  65  86 /  10  10   0  10
F10   65  87  67  90 /  20  20   0  10
HHW   66  89  67  93 /  30  30   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...22