892
FXUS64 KTSA 140450
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1050 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1050 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

 - Widespread through Saturday, with a low chance for excessive
   rainfall impacts.

 - Scattered thunderstorms expected Saturday. There is a marginal risk
   for severe storms in northeast Oklahoma Saturday morning, and
   southeast OK Saturday afternoon.

 - Increased fire weather concerns return Monday through Thursday,
   with well above normal temperatures, low humidity, and breezy
   conditions.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

An upper low slowly tracking through the Southwest CONUS and into
the Plains will bringing increasing shower and thunderstorms from
late tonight through the day Saturday. Scattered thunderstorms
have initiated across portions of western and north central
Oklahoma over the last couple of hours. Expect this trend to
continue through the overnight hours, with storms spreading into
northeast Oklahoma over the next few hours. Coverage should expand
through the overnight period as more widespread ascent overspreads
the region owing to an increasing low level jet. While mixed layer
instability and mid level lapse rates remain rather limited over
the region, enough instability exists, which combined with sufficient
deep layer shear will support a threat for a few strong to
marginally severe storms through the overnight hours into Saturday
morning. Hail will be the primary threat, though some gusty winds
could also accompany the stronger cells.

Much of the precipitation will hold off across southeast Oklahoma
into west-central Arkansas until after dawn Saturday morning as
the complex of showers and storms slowly spreads southeastward.
This complex should progress eastward through the morning and
early afternoon. A few strong to marginally severe storms will
remain possible across southeast Oklahoma into the early afternoon
Saturday, but the threat should wane with time. Additional shower
and storm development will be possible from Saturday afternoon
into Saturday evening ahead of the frontal boundary/surface
pressure trough back across northeast Oklahoma. Activity will then
push southeastward and through the CWA through the evening
Saturday as the front moves through then region.

Seasonably high PWAT values will likely lead to pockets of
locally heavy rainfall, especially where more convective activity
occurs. Widespread rain totals of 0.5 to 1.5 inches appears
likely, with locally higher amounts of 2+ inches where some
training occurs. The prolonged dry period should limit the
flooding potential outside of urban areas however.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

A few lingering showers could be exiting the area early Sunday
morning. Otherwise, clearing skies and breezy northerly winds will
follow the frontal passage. Temperatures will remain well above
normal still on Sunday, even behind the front. Strong ridging
returns into the beginning of next week. Well above normal
temperatures will continue at least through Thursday of next week.
Moisture return will be slow as well early in the week. The
combination of warm, dry, and breezy conditions will lead to an
uptick in fire weather concerns as well. The degree to which fire
weather becomes a concern will depend on the amount of rainfall
received this weekend. The next frontal boundary could arrive in
the Thursday/Friday timeframe, bringing the next chance for rain
and some cooler temperatures.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1050 PM CST Fri Feb 13 2026

Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will increase in coverage
overnight into Saturday morning. Mainly VFR conditions will prevail
until late tonight, with conditions then deteriorating rapidly to
IFR by early to mid morning Saturday. Widespread showers and
isolated thunderstorms will continue much of the day Saturday,
with possibly some improvement by late afternoon at the eastern
Oklahoma sites, where conditions may temporarily improve to MVFR.
IFR to LIFR conditions are likely to return Saturday evening, with
some drizzle and fog likely at the Arkansas sites. North winds
will increase and become gusty at the northeast Oklahoma sites by
late evening Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   55  66  48  63 /  90 100  60   0
FSM   53  63  52  65 /  70 100  80  10
MLC   58  66  50  63 /  60 100  70   0
BVO   50  65  44  64 / 100  90  50   0
FYV   50  62  46  62 /  70 100  80  10
BYV   48  59  48  59 /  80 100  80  10
MKO   54  63  49  63 /  70 100  70   0
MIO   51  62  47  62 /  90 100  60   0
F10   56  66  49  63 /  80 100  70   0
HHW   58  65  53  63 /  40 100  80  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05