180
FXUS64 KTSA 200527
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

 - Very hot conditions are expected through Tuesday, with
   afternoon heat indices of 105-113 for much of the area.

 - A weak cold front may bring minimal heat relief Wednesday, but the
   heat will return in earnest late week.

 - Isolated showers and storms may develop Monday afternoon, with
   dry weather expected until at least Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

A quiet night is expected with dry conditions across the area,
though a stray shower in northwest Arkansas is possible (10%
chance). Temperatures will edge slightly upwards compared to last
night as the upper level high becomes the dominant influence on
the weather pattern. Lows will reach the mid to upper 70s.

Monday will be several degrees warmer than Sunday, with mid to upper
90s (perhaps as high as 100 F). Dew points will remain high given
recent rains, so heat indices of 105-110 F are expected.
Accordingly, the Heat Advisory was expanded to cover the entire
forecast area. A couple of isolated showers or storms across the
AR high terrain may develop during the afternoon, with gusty
winds, brief heavy rain, and lightning being the expected impacts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday Night through Sunday)
Issued at 1055 PM CDT Sun Jul 19 2026

The upper level ridge will be squarely overhead Tuesday with even
stronger heating in the lower atmosphere. High temperatures will
reach their peak Tuesday, with widespread upper 90s to low 100s.
Heat indices of 105-113 F are expected. An Excessive Heat Watch
was issued for the areas which will be the hottest. A weak cold
front will then move in Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This
cold front is expected to be dry, but will at least knock
temperatures down a few degrees.

The upper level ridge will remain in control, but will shift
slightly west by Friday. At the surface this will do nothing for
temperatures, with highs actually expected to increase back to the
upper 90s to low 100s. But the shift may allow for a few showers and
storms to return to northwest AR. By Saturday, the ridge will
have shifted far enough west for a weak shortwave trough to clip
the area. Models have become more confident in this outcome over
the last day, with rain chances also increasing. With that said,
there is still considerable uncertainty in the exact placement and
timing of the trough as well as any precipitation chances.
Temperatures are expected to come down at least a little bit by
next Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 AM CDT Mon Jul 20 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  100  80 103  79 /   0   0   0   0
FSM  100  79 102  80 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   98  77 102  79 /   0   0   0   0
BVO  100  77 102  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   96  75  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
BYV   96  75  99  72 /  20   0   0   0
MKO   97  77 100  78 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   98  77 101  74 /   0   0   0   0
F10   98  77 102  77 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   97  76 101  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053-055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-
     376.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for OKZ055>058-060>063-066-067-070-071-074-176-254-
     272-354.

AR...Heat Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-129-219-220-229.

     Extreme Heat Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday
     evening for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...05