642
FXUS64 KTSA 060443
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1143 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1134 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

 - An extended period of hot weather will persist through the
   upcoming week. Heat headlines will be needed most days.

 - Low afternoon rain/storm chances are in the forecast through
   the Labor Day weekend and again late this week. Storms may
   produce locally strong wind gusts and brief heavy rainfall.

 - What rain that does fall early this week is unlikely to reverse
   recent drought trends.

 - Localized fire weather concerns will exist most days due to the
   worsening drought.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Overall, quiet conditions are likely through the overnight hours,
with lows remaining in the 70s for the vast majority of the area.
Sunday will feature very similar weather to Saturday, though
temperatures could end up a degree or two warmer. Heat headlines
remain in effect for the entire area from 12-7 PM, including an
Extreme Heat Warning for the AR River Valley in W-Central AR.
Based on Saturdays observed high temperatures/heat indices, there
is a chance the Extreme Heat Warning may need to be expanded to
include parts of E OK as well. However, given the expectation for
greater shower and thunderstorm coverage Sunday, temperatures may
fall short of potential in some areas, and have held off on any
upgrades for now.

A backdoor cold front is still forecast to push west-southwest
into the FA Sunday afternoon-evening. Higher moisture will be in
place ahead of the front and isolated to scattered
afternoon/evening storms will be possible across the entire area.
Deep inverted-V profiles will again foster potential for
downbursts and strong wind gusts mainly between 40 and 50 mph.
Severe weather is unlikely overall, but a locally damaging
downburst cannot be ruled out in this environment. Dangerous
cloud-to-ground lightning and brief heavy rainfall may also occur.
In any case, please keep an eye on weather conditions if
participating in any outdoor holiday weekend activities.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1134 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Convection is likely to be trending down Sunday evening with loss
of daytime instability. The front will continue to push westward
Sunday night into Monday with drier and slightly cooler air
filtering in from the east behind it. CAMs indicate isolated
showers and storms will again be possible to the west of the
boundary Monday afternoon, but with ridging intensifying overhead,
coverage is more uncertain. Based on HREF/REFS guidance, have
introduced 15 percent PoPs for parts of E OK Monday afternoon.
High temperatures will remain near or above 100 degrees Monday
with heat headlines probable for parts of the area again.

The center of the ridge moves directly overhead Tuesday into
Wednesday with more hot and dry conditions. Heat headlines will
likely be required through this period. By Wednesday night, the
ridge is expected to flatten as a strong upper level low develops
across the Upper Midwest into Canada. This is will force a cold
front south into our vicinity with increasing rain and storm
potential. The front will be weaker by the time it reaches our
area, and there is still uncertainty how far south it will make
it, but it should provide some cooler temperatures and increased
rain potential for at least northern portions of the CWA Thursday
into Friday. Southerly flow and above average temperatures return
to the area ahead of a stronger cold front which may push into the
area late next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 625 PM CDT Sat Sep 5 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Sunday
afternoon, but the chances at any TAF site are too low to mention
at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  102  77 102  79 /   0   0  20  10
FSM  105  76 106  77 /  10  10  30  10
MLC  101  74 104  76 /  10  10  20  10
BVO  102  69 103  72 /   0   0  20  10
FYV  102  69 103  73 /  20  10  30  10
BYV  102  73 102  73 /  20  10  30  10
MKO  102  74 103  75 /  10  10  20  10
MIO  101  74 102  75 /  10  10  20  10
F10  101  74 102  75 /   0  10  20  10
HHW  100  74 100  75 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for OKZ049-053-
     055>071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ001-002-010-
     011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon to 7 PM CDT Sunday for ARZ129-219-
     220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05