667
FXUS64 KTSA 232252
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
552 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

 - Locally enhanced grassland fire spread rates possible west of
   Highway 75 in NE OK this afternoon.

 - Above average high temperatures and predominantly dry weather
   will continue through early next week.

 - Higher rain chances may return by mid-late next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

It is another abnormally warm fall day across the region with an
upper level ridge sitting over the Southern Plains. High
temperatures should be comparable to yesterday, though high clouds
will tend to be more common. Locally enhanced grassland fire
spread rates are forecast across parts of Osage and Pawnee
counties this afternoon given the well above average temperatures,
low min RH values, and breezier afternoon winds today (10-20 mph,
gusting to 25 mph NW of I-44). Quiet conditions persist overnight
with lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s (slightly colder for
typical sheltered valleys).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Friday)
Issued at 1128 AM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

Ridging keeps the weather warm and dry through this weekend,
though high level cloudiness will continue to stream overhead.
Upper level troughing, currently over S California, will gradually
transition into a cutoff low and move east this weekend. This
feature will eventually eject northeast into the C/N Plains Monday
into Tuesday. The vast majority of rainfall associated with this
system is still expected to remain west and north of our area, but
a few light showers are plausible in Osage/Pawnee counties
Monday-early Tuesday despite the dry low level airmass. Most
guidance agrees that the cold front early next week will now
remain just to our north, with less of a cool down expected
Tuesday.

By mid to late week, a shortwave will advance across the N Plains
and send a stronger cold front towards the CWA. Model spread is
higher by this point, but if this front manages to make it into
the area then higher rain potential and cooler temperatures would
likely result. Until then, warm and predominantly dry conditions
will persist.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Fri Oct 23 2026

VFR conditions will continue at all terminals through the forecast
period. Any early morning fog will be localized and highly
variable with any impacts expected to be very brief.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   54  81  56  80 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   55  84  55  83 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   53  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   48  80  49  79 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   46  81  48  81 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   53  80  53  79 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   54  82  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   54  79  54  79 /   0   0   0   0
F10   54  82  55  81 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   54  83  55  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...07