124
FXUS64 KTSA 190504
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1204 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

 - Near record temperatures continue Saturday.

 - Fire weather concerns will continue during periods of stronger
   winds, especially on Saturday across eastern Oklahoma.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return Saturday night and increase
   Sunday through Sunday night as a slow moving cold front
   passes.

 - Noticeably cooler temperatures arrive next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

Another hot day is on tap Saturday, with record or near record
high temperatures expected once again. Increasing south winds and
low afternoon humidity values will lead to heightened fire weather
concerns Saturday afternoon for both grassland and timber fuels,
especially for the more drought stricken areas. Remain aware of
ongoing burn bans across the area. Afternoon high temperatures
Saturday will range from the mid 90s to near 102.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1156 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

A cold front will approach the area from the north Saturday
evening and overnight, with shower and thunderstorm chances
spreading into parts of northeast Oklahoma by late evening into
the overnight hours. As the cold front sags south into our area
during the day Sunday, additional showers and storms will form in
its vicinity by afternoon, with an isolated severe storm or two
possible. Shower and storm chances will continue Sunday night into
Monday as the front continues to progress southeast across the
area.

Much cooler temperatures will prevail next week in the wake of the
front, with temperatures much closer to the seasonal averages. A
few showers may drift into parts of northeast Oklahoma from time
to time later next week, but most places will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 536 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. South to southwest
winds will be more gusty than today, with all sites except MLC
and FSM likely to have consistent gusts from 15 to 20 kts toward
midday into the afternoon. Shower and thunderstorm development
near the NE OK sites will hold off until after 20/00Z and perhaps
even after 20/06Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  98  75  90 /   0   0  20  50
FSM   74 101  73  98 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   74 100  74  97 /   0   0   0  30
BVO   71  99  69  88 /   0   0  30  60
FYV   70  97  69  94 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   73  96  72  93 /   0   0   0  10
MKO   72 100  72  94 /   0   0   0  40
MIO   73  96  71  89 /   0   0  20  40
F10   72  98  73  94 /   0   0   0  50
HHW   72 100  72  97 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...22