552
FXUS64 KTSA 271134
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

 - Shower and isolated storm coverage expected to expand tonight
   through early Sunday with overall rainfall amounts remaining
   light. Mostly dry weather on Monday.

 - Above normal temperatures continue through early next week.

 - Unsettled weather for mid to late week. Expect several periods
   of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Some severe
   weather potential will exist as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Sunday)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expanding late this evening as
expected across north central into northeast Oklahoma in
association with an increasing low level jet and a mid level
disturbance evident on water vapor satellite to the west of the
area near the Oklahoma/Kansas border. This activity will gradually
shift eastward through daybreak, with a more southeastward
expansion into the daylight hours Sunday following the movement of
the disturbance. Coverage should decrease some during the
afternoon with low chances focusing across southeast Oklahoma into
west central Arkansas. Any heavier rainfall totals through Sunday
afternoon should be fairly spotty, but given precipitable water
values just below seasonal maxes, localized totals up to an inch
or so may occur. Highs during the day should be a couple of
degrees under the NBM values with lingering clouds and showers and
have been adjusted that direction using the short-term blended
guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through Saturday)
Issued at 1132 PM CDT Sat Sep 26 2026

Overall, the period from Sunday night through Monday night will be
relatively quiet comparatively, with low shower and thunderstorm
chances focused along and south of I-40 through Monday afternoon
and dry conditions Monday night. Temperatures during both the
overnight and the daytime will continue to be above seasonal
normals.

The focus of the forecast next week remains on the much
anticipated slow-moving storm system set to move across the
southern United States and the increased likelihood of a heavy
rainfall event for the region. The evolution of the storm system
remains very much uncertain, but model trends point toward a
more delayed eastward movement than previous. After the
aforementioned dry Monday night, shower and thunderstorm chances
begin to increase once again across mainly northeast Oklahoma
during the day Tuesday and into Tuesday night in response to a
lead disturbance forecast to move through the region ahead of the
main upper level system. This should keep high temperatures cooler
across northern areas, with summer-like temperatures hanging on
south of I-40. Tuesday nights lows will be warmer than previous
nights, reflecting an increase low level wind speeds and moisture.
As the main storm system shifts east toward mid to late week,
high shower and thunderstorm chances will spread from west to
east, with multiple rounds of heavy rainfall possible given
precipitable water forecasts near seasonal maxes. Temperatures
during the latter part of next week and into the early part of the
next weekend should be below normal and more fall-like. Current
projections indicate that the main storm system should shift east
of the area by the weekend, with only low chances for additional
rainfall lingering.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Sun Sep 27 2026

Ongoing showers and thunderstorms, especially impacting the
northwest Arkansas sites, will diminish by midday. VFR conditions
will prevail outside of the heavier downpours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   85  66  86  67 /  50  10  10   0
FSM   88  67  91  67 /  40  20  10   0
MLC   92  68  93  69 /  40  20  20   0
BVO   84  62  83  63 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   83  62  86  63 /  60  10  10   0
BYV   81  62  83  63 /  60  10  10   0
MKO   85  66  89  67 /  70  20  10   0
MIO   81  64  82  65 /  70  20  10   0
F10   87  65  89  67 /  50  20  10   0
HHW   93  68  91  69 /  20  30  20   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...22
LONG TERM....22
AVIATION...05