


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
905 FXUS64 KTSA 121708 AFDTSA Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tulsa OK 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 - Rain chances return tonight through Monday mainly for areas along and north of I-44. - Unseasonably warm conditions through much of the week, with low rain chances returning next weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (Through tonight) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 Grassland fire weather concerns will continue through the remainder of today especially along and west of Highway 75. Winds will relax around sunset. Scattered showers are likely to develop late tonight across portions of NE OK within the corridor of the slow moving cold front with rains continuing into the day Monday. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Sunday) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 The combination of showers, thick cloud cover, and the stalled front will keep temps across NE OK cooler on Monday. Further south and east expect another mostly clear and warm day. Rains will end across NE OK by late afternoon with overall rainfall amounts likely to light with minimal improvement to the expanding coverage of dry soils. Unseasonably strong upper ridge expands across the southern Plains through mid week. Dry and warm weather will prevail area wide. Potential for the next cold front is forecast in the late Friday to Saturday time frame, with the front timed to clear the region by Sunday. This will mark the next chance of rain and slightly cooler temps. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Oct 12 2025 VFR will continue to prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period with an abundance of mid and high clouds. Gusty southerly winds will persist through the afternoon before subsiding early this evening. Rain chances will increase across northeast OK late this evening and through much of Monday morning. Highest chances (30-40%) of precipitation will occur at or in the vicinity of BVO early-mid morning. Lower chances (20-30%) will occur at TUL and RVS. MVFR and/or IFR cigs/vsbys may briefly occur under heavier showers. Mejia && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TUL 69 82 65 87 / 20 30 0 0 FSM 64 88 65 88 / 0 0 0 0 MLC 66 89 62 89 / 10 0 0 0 BVO 65 78 62 85 / 40 50 0 0 FYV 62 84 61 85 / 10 10 0 0 BYV 62 83 62 83 / 10 10 0 0 MKO 67 87 65 87 / 10 10 0 0 MIO 67 80 65 84 / 30 30 0 0 F10 67 87 63 88 / 10 10 0 0 HHW 62 87 62 86 / 0 0 0 0 && .TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. AR...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...07 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...67