260
FXUS64 KTSA 101656
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1156 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1151 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

 - Hot and dry weather will persist through the workweek. A Heat
   Advisory is in effect for much of E OK and W AR today and
   Tuesday. Additional heat headlines are likely this week.

 - Very low rain and storm chances will be confined to areas near
   the Kansas and Missouri borders late this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

Dangerous heat continues today with heat indices up to 109 for
many locations across E OK and NW AR. A Heat Advisory remains in
effect until 8 PM for most of the area. Quiet conditions are
likely tonight with mostly clear skies. Low temperatures will be
quite warm again in the mid to upper 70s with south winds
persisting overnight, especially across E OK.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

The upper level ridging pattern will fluctuate in the coming days
but the end result for our area is more or less the same: hot and
dry. Ridging thus far has been centered over the four corners
region and across the SE U.S. with positive height anomalies
remaining in place between the two. As we move into mid-late week,
western ridging will tend to shift east and merge with the SE
ridge. This opens the door for a weak cold front to move into the
central Plains towards our CWA. However, latest guidance has
continued to suggest the front will remain north of us with fewer
sensible impacts for E OK and NW AR. Model output does indicate at
least a slight chance of rain near the KS and MO borders late
this weekend, but overall dry conditions are forecast to continue.

In the lower levels, lee troughing will provide persistent south-
southwest winds over the coming days. These winds will become
breezy during the afternoon hours and do not fully dissipate
overnight. With this orientation, we should see dewpoints mix out
more than previous days, especially mid to late week. However,
temperatures will also increase slightly during this time.
Overall, afternoon temperatures near/above 100 and maximum heat
index values greater than 105 will remain likely for much of the
area. Based on trends so far this morning and Sunday afternoon,
have issued a Heat Advisory for the same areas on Tuesday.
Additional heat headlines are likely over the coming days. Please
continue to take precautions to stay safe when outdoors this week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1132 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the period, with potential for
diurnal cumulus at most sites. Gusty south to southwesterly winds
will be most likely into early evening at the E OK sites and again
beginning mid morning tomorrow at all sites except FSM. Wind gusts
should mainly be near to just below 20 kts, with occasional brief
gusts above that level primarily at TUL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81 102  82 102 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   77 101  79 102 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   78 100  79 100 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   77 102  78 103 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   75  97  76  98 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   76  97  78  98 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   76  99  77 100 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   78  99  79 101 /   0   0   0   0
F10   76 100  77 101 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   76  96  78  97 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ049-053-055>068-
     070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for OKZ049-053-
     055>068-070-071-073>075-154-172-176-254-272-276-354-376.

AR...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for ARZ001-002-129-219-
     220-229.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Tuesday for ARZ001-002-129-
     219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...22