058
FXUS64 KTSA 281805
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion...Retransmission
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

 - Heavy rain and localized flooding is possible across southeast
   Oklahoma and west-central Arkansas into this evening.

 - Limited severe threat this afternoon, mainly across far
   southeast Oklahoma.

 - After today, low daily rain chances /20-30 percent/ and well
   below normal temperatures forecast through the weekend and
   into next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

The heavy rain/shortwave trough axis continues to shift south early
this afternoon, with the heaviest rain currently falling across
southeast OK and west-central AR. The flooding and flash flooding
threat will persist through the rest of the afternoon and into this
evening for locations along and south of I-40, where additional
amounts between 1 and 3 inches of rain will be possible, with
locally higher amounts in spots. At the surface, a warm front was
analyzed  in the vicinity from far south Pittsburg County through
Pushmataha County to the Red River adjacent to McCurtain County.
Behind the warm front, SPC Mesoscale Analysis shows SB CAPE values
quickly increasing to 1500-2000 J/kg. Difficult to say how far north
this warm front will lift, but a severe threat will exist for
locations in the vicinity of this frontal boundary this afternoon.
The degree of the severe potential is still uncertain at this time
due to the morning high-based convection and cloud cover preventing
daytime heating and destabilization to occur, which hi-res models
did not really capture very well. Nevertheless, given increasing
instability, sufficient bulk shear, and plenty of lift and moisture,
a conditional severe threat will remain intact across southeast OK
and west-central AR through this afternoon. Main hazards, besides
flooding, with any organized storm or cluster of storms will be
large hail (1 in diameter) and damaging wind gusts (60-65 mph).

By this evening and into the overnight hours tonight, the heavy rain
axis will shift into far southeast OK and into the ArkLaTex region,
where the aforementioned frontal boundary will gradually sag. After
sunset this evening, low-level flow will veer out of the southeast
and increase, which should cause some convective redevelopment
across portions of far southeast OK, with less of a chance north of
I-40. Again, there is still some uncertainty with how the rest of
the afternoon evolves, but given recent trends and high values of
flash flood guidance (and despite the additional rainfall expected
tonight), will opt to not issue out a Flood Watch for far southeast
OK. With that said, minor flooding in flood-prone and low-lying
areas still seems probable tonight, with localized flash flooding
still possible.

Where rain is not falling, cloud cover will remain thick tonight,
which will help keep low temperatures generally in the low-mid 60s,
perhaps upper 60s across southeast OK where rain is more likely.

Mejia

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Thursday)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing, but becoming more
isolated to scattered, across portions of southeast OK and west-
central AR Friday morning. These low precipitation chances /20-30
percent/ will stick around south of I-40 through the daytime
Friday, but QPF values will remain lighter than the previous day
or two. The northwest flow aloft will continue to bring in low
precipitation chances /10-30 percent/ almost each day through the
long-term period, with no real alarming signals of widespread
heavy rain or severe weather through the period at this time.

Mid/upper-level ridging will build over the Great Basin/Desert
Southwest regions this upcoming weekend and into next week, which
will keep much of the central and eastern CONUS underneath a
longwave troughing pattern. As mentioned above, the northwest/north-
northwest flow aloft will allow for subtle shortwave troughs to move
over the region, giving us the low precipitation chances. This
pattern will also allow for unseasonably cool temperatures to
persist for the area. Model and ensemble data are in good agreement
that daytime highs will hover in the upper-70s to lower-80s each
day, with nighttime lows generally in the upper-50s to mid-60s.
Latest global models show the next big cold front will arrive
sometime late Wednesday night into Thursday morning as a robust
upper-level low moves over the Great Lakes region mid week.

Mejia

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Thu Aug 28 2025

Poor aviating conditions will persist through the period at all
sites. Expansive area of showers, with thunderstorms confined
largely to the southern edge except for some recent development on
the western edge, continue to push southward. MLC and FSM will
have potential to see on-station thunderstorm impacts for the
first couple of hours of the TAF period. CAMs continue to show
potential for redevelopment across southeast OK late this evening
and into early tomorrow morning, which may occur near MLC but more
likely south of there. Widespread and prolonged IFR ceilings
should be expected through the remainder of the TAF period at all
sites, along with MVFR and tempo IFR visibilities.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   66  76  64  82 /  50  20  10  20
FSM   66  76  66  83 /  80  30  20  20
MLC   68  76  66  80 /  80  40  20  30
BVO   63  77  60  82 /  30  10  10  10
FYV   62  76  60  82 /  60  20  20  20
BYV   60  77  60  81 /  40  20  20  20
MKO   65  74  64  80 /  70  30  10  20
MIO   62  79  61  83 /  30  20  10  20
F10   66  74  63  79 /  70  30  20  20
HHW   68  76  68  80 /  80  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....67
AVIATION...22