968
FXUS64 KTSA 120440
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1040 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1036 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

 - Well above normal temperatures Wednesday through Saturday.

 - Dry weather will persist until Saturday with breezy conditions
   Thursday through Saturday.

 - Shower and thunderstorm chances return this weekend continuing
   into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

Winds have relaxed for the overnight period as a weak frontal
boundary approaches the region from the north. This boundary will
move through the area Wednesday morning. No impact expected from the
frontal passage besides a wind shift to generally light northerly
winds during the day. Temperatures will top out near where they were
yesterday, with highs expected in the low to mid 70s from north to
south respectively. Seasonably mild overnight lows are forecast
with clear skies prevailing outside of some passing high clouds.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

The warming trend continues through the end of the week and into the
weekend as southerly winds return and become gusty again Thursday
through Saturday ahead of  another frontal passage. Temperatures
will be unseasonably warm through the end of the week with some
places approaching record highs in the low 80s, especially Friday
and Saturday.

A somewhat more active pattern is expected through the end of the
forecast period beginning with the passage of a frontal boundary
during the day Saturday. The frontal passage itself is expected to
be dry in the absence of deep layer moisture and minimal forcing
noted in any of the guidance. It will at least bring a cool off back
to near seasonal normals into the beginning of next week. The latter
half of the weekend into early next week will see a cutoff low off
the Southern California Coast get absorbed into the flow and lift
northeast out of the Southwest CONUS through the Plains. Latest
trends have been farther north with the track of the upper low and
thus the better rain chances have shifted north of the local
region as well. Still, at least some increasing chances for rain
will arrive late in the weekend into early next week, mainly
across northeast Oklahoma late Sunday into Monday. The best
chances for showers and thunderstorms look to be with the next
frontal passage Monday night into Tuesday across eastern Oklahoma
and western Arkansas. Precip chances could be on the uptick again
later in the week as another system moves into the Plains.
Guidance remains highly divergent on the details at this range
though.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1036 PM CST Tue Nov 11 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   39  72  45  76 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   41  72  47  79 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   43  74  49  80 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   34  71  40  75 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   40  71  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   41  69  44  72 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   42  71  47  77 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   38  69  44  73 /   0   0   0   0
F10   41  72  47  78 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   44  72  50  78 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05