436
FXUS64 KTSA 080530
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

 - Headline-worthy heat is expected to persist through Wednesday.
   Cooler temperatures are expected thereafter.

 - Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and again on
   Wednesday. Storms may produce locally strong wind gusts and
   brief heavy rainfall.

 - Localized fire weather concerns will continue to exist through
   Wednesday due to the worsening drought.

 - Rain/storm chances increase for the second half of the workweek
   as a front pushes into the area Wednesday night into Thursday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tuesday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The upper level ridge will move directly overhead Tuesday, which
will help keep temperatures near or slightly above where they were
on Monday. This results in a high temperature forecast between
100 and 105 for most of the CWA, with heat indices warranting heat
headlines for the entire area. The advisory was upgraded to an
Extreme Heat Warning for the Arkansas River Valley in W-Central AR
as well as portions of NE OK. These areas experienced max heat
indices near or greater than 110 on Monday, and are likely to
achieve this again Tuesday. Ambient temperatures alone may exceed
105 degrees in the lower elevations of W Arkansas, barring any
impact from afternoon convection.

Isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms will be possible yet
again, but with the ridge center overhead, coverage is likely to
be less than Monday. CAMs suggest SE OK and NW AR will again be
most favored and have maintained slight chance PoPs for these
areas. Gusty downburst winds remain the primary concern with any
stronger storms that develop, but brief heavy rainfall and cloud-
to-ground lightning may occur as well. As has been the case the
past few days, convection should decrease through the evening
hours before becoming mostly dry after sunset.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday Night through Monday)
Issued at 1147 PM CDT Mon Sep 7 2026

The ridge will tend to flatten through the day Wednesday as a
strong longwave trough develops across the Upper Midwest/Great
Lakes region. The associated cold front will move through the
central plains early in the day and approach our CWA sometime late
Wednesday afternoon or evening. Ahead of the front, another hot
day is likely with temperatures between 100 and 105 for most of
the area. Additional heat headlines will be needed. Diurnal
convection is possible again, mainly over the higher terrain of NW
AR. However, higher precipitation chances will occur with the
arrival of the cold front Wednesday evening and overnight...
particularly across NE OK and NW AR.

Shower/thunderstorm chances will persist along the frontal
boundary as it progresses south Wednesday night into Thursday. The
front is expected to stall during the day Thursday, potentially
in the vicinity of I-40 or further into SE OK/W AR. This will
provide at least low precipitation chances until the front lifts
back north of the area on Friday. In addition to increasing rain
potential, the front will also help cool the area off. High
temperatures in the upper 80s and lower 90s are currently forecast
north of I-40 on Thursday. Any areas that remain ahead of the
front will likely continue to experience well above average
temperatures, but still slightly cooler due to increased cloud
cover (mid-upper 90s). A shortwave moving through the region on
Friday may promote additional shower/storm development, especially
across NE OK and W AR.

Model variability increases going into the weekend, but there is
some agreement that another cold front will at least approach the
area on Saturday. Precipitation potential will likely hinge on
just how far south the front makes it, but the NBM currently
provides fairly widespread 20-40 percent PoPs during this time
frame. Southerly flow and drier conditions could return early next
week before another, potentially stronger, cold front impacts the
region. More details will become available over the coming days,
but the main takeaway is that a more active weather pattern seems
to be shaping up for the area beginning mid to late this week and
persisting into the next. Increasing rain and front activity will
also tend to keep temperatures in the 90s or lower Friday and
beyond.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Sep 8 2026

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL  103  81 102  75 /  10   0  10  80
FSM  105  77 104  77 /  20  10  20  10
MLC  103  77 102  77 /  20  10  10  10
BVO  103  75 103  67 /  10   0  20  90
FYV  101  74 101  71 /  20  10  20  30
BYV   99  75  99  73 /  20  10  30  40
MKO  102  76 100  73 /  20  10  10  30
MIO  101  77 100  70 /  10   0  30  90
F10  102  77 101  74 /  20   0  10  40
HHW   99  75  98  75 /  20  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ049-053-055>059-063>065-068-069-073-075-154-172-254-276-
     354-376.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ060>062-066-067-070-071-074-176-272.

AR...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     ARZ001-002-010-011-119-120-229.

     Extreme Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ129-219-220.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...43
LONG TERM....43
AVIATION...05