781
FXUS64 KTSA 020525
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Mon Sep 1 2025

 - Below normal temperatures continue Tuesday with a 10-40% chance
   of showers and thunderstorms (highest in northwest Arkansas)

 - A cold front late Wednesday brings another shot of cool air and
   additional rain chances.

 - A stronger cold front on Friday will drop temperatures even
   further, with rain chances increasing again over the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Overnight and Tuesday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Light northerly flow will remain in place through the short term
helping to keep surface temperatures relatively cool. Low
temperatures Tuesday morning will again reach the mid 60s for most
areas. Some patchy fog may develop across portions of east-central
OK into northwest AR given the relatively clear skies for most
locations. A passing vort max will help kick off a few showers
and storms Tuesday afternoon. CAM guidance is a bit inconsistent
on placement, but overall the best chance of storm activity will
focus across northwest Arkansas. Increased PoPs compared to
previous forecasts by 5-10% for most areas given the stronger CAM
signal. Considering these factors, high temperatures will
generally be capped in the low 80s. Lows will fall to the upper
50s to low 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Warmer southerly flow briefly returns Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front. If cloud cover is thin, sometimes these
types of days can be surprisingly warm. High temperatures should
reach the mid 80s, so just a bit below normal for the date. Then the
cold front will come through bringing breezy northerly winds, cooler
air, and a few showers and thunderstorms. Precipitation will focus
across the northern third of the forecast area (roughly north of
Highway 412). Storm coverage will be limited as the upper level
forcing will mostly remain northeast of the area. The coldest air
will remain to the northeast of the area, but even so, high
temperatures Thursday will reach the upper 70s in the north and
mid 80s in the south.

Temperatures may rebound slightly Friday, but another cold front
will move through. This cold front will be stronger than the
previous one, with several days of well below normal temperatures to
follow it. In general, most areas will see highs in the 70s Saturday
onwards with lows in the 50s to lower 60s. In terms of
precipitation, rain chances will increase along the front, with an
additional round of showers or storms possible Saturday with a
little better upper level support. Ensemble guidance is showing
fairly high confidence in this general outcome. Some ensemble
guidance brings another round of showers or storms into the area
early next week, potentially with the help of tropical moisture
pulled up from the Pacific. Severe weather is not looking too likely
right now, but there will be a risk of heavy rain and flooding in
the general region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Sep 2 2025

Aside from some fog forecast at the NW AR terminals around
daybreak, and potentially a brief period of MVFR cigs at KBVO, VFR
conditions will be predominant thru this TAF period. The latest
CAM guidance suggests increasing potential for showers during the
afternoon hours on Tuesday. Chances are good enough to warrant a
prob30 mention for MVFR vsbys in heavier showers at all sites at
this time. Can`t rule out thunder, but chances are too low to
mention.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  64  86  64 /  20   0   0  20
FSM   85  67  89  66 /  30  10   0  10
MLC   83  64  86  64 /  20   0   0  10
BVO   80  59  86  58 /  20   0   0  40
FYV   81  61  85  60 /  40  10   0  30
BYV   81  61  85  61 /  40  10  10  30
MKO   82  63  85  64 /  20   0   0  10
MIO   81  60  85  59 /  20   0   0  50
F10   81  61  85  62 /  20   0   0  10
HHW   84  65  87  64 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...06
LONG TERM....06
AVIATION...30