016
FXUS64 KTSA 171134
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

 - Fire weather conditions remain a daily concern due to drying
   fuels and periods of gusty winds.

 - A stalled weak front will bring widely scattered storm chances
   across the south and slightly cooler temperatures across the
   north Monday. Localized strong downburst winds are possible.

 - Very hot weather returns Tuesday and Wednesday before another
   slight cooldown toward the end of the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Monday Night)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The frontal boundary that moved into the region on Sunday will
become stationary or very slowly sag southward overnight into
Monday morning. Spotty showers continue to fester in the vicinity
of the boundary across portions of northwest Arkansas, but most
locations will stay dry tonight. A few showers may also try to
move into northeast Oklahoma Monday morning from the west, but
will likely be weakening and won`t make it very far into the area
before dissipating. The aforementioned boundary will at least bring
slightly cooler temperatures across the north for Monday with
locations north of I-40 likely staying under 100 degrees for the
first time in over a week. Near and south of the boundary,
temperatures will remain near or over 100 with building humidity
leading to another day of heat headlines for those areas. Again,
much like Sunday, isolated to widely scattered showers will be
possible near the boundary as it slowly pushes south through the
afternoon and early evening. Many locations will still remain dry,
but some could see a brief downpour. Conditions will also be
favorable for some gusty winds with any stronger storms.
Relatively cooler overnight lows in the 70s will be welcome for
Monday night for a brief reprieve from the extreme heat.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 1140 PM CDT Sun Aug 16 2026

The front will lose definition by Tuesday as upper ridging
broadens across the Southern Plains. This will bring a return of
hot to very hot conditions Tuesday afternoon with areawide heat
headlines likely again during this timeframe. While broad ridging
will remain planted more or less over the Southern Plains, the
center of the ridge will shift over the Four Corners Region on
Wednesday, allowing a shortwave trough to drop southeastward
through the central CONUS in the northwest flow aloft. This will
drive another frontal boundary near the region on Wednesday.
Ahead of this boundary, very hot conditions will again develop
Wednesday afternoon as a strong low level thermal ridge sets up
over central and eastern Oklahoma. This could lead to the hottest
day of the year for locations south of the boundary with some
locations potentially pushing 110 degrees by late afternoon
Wednesday.

Low to medium rain chances will return with the frontal passage as
we head into Wednesday night and Thursday, especially across far
northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Widespread meaningful
rainfall still appears unlikely, prolonging drought conditions
across the region. The front will slowly drift southward through
the day Thursday, with relatively cooler conditions to finish out
the week. The ridge looks to remain centered to the west through
the weekend, possibly allowing some more low rain chances through
this time, but uncertainty increases in the evolution of the upper
air pattern by the end of the forecast period.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Mon Aug 17 2026

Storm cluster moving into northeast Oklahoma is forecast to weaken
mid morning through early afternoon. Gusty winds and brief period
of MVFR conditions will be possible with this activity. Thus, will
continue with Prob30 group for timing of greater potential.
Additional storm chances develop this afternoon and evening mainly
along and south of Interstate 40 as a weak frontal boundary
slowly sags southward. Localized strong downburst winds and
locally heavy rain is possible into this evening. Overall,
scattered to overcast mid and high clouds are forecast through the
period. Winds vary between west and northeast behind the frontal
boundary, while remaining variable ahead of it. Outside of
convection, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   96  76 103  83 /  40  10  10   0
FSM  102  76 104  76 /  20  10  10   0
MLC  100  76 106  81 /  20  20  10   0
BVO   95  70 103  76 /  40  10  10   0
FYV   96  71 100  77 /  10  10  10   0
BYV   93  70  98  78 /   0   0  10   0
MKO   97  73 102  78 /  20  10  10   0
MIO   93  71  99  78 /  20  10  10  10
F10   97  73 103  79 /  20  20  10   0
HHW  102  76 103  79 /  20  20  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ049-053-070-071-073>075-172-176-272-276-376.

AR...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for ARZ119-120-129-219-220-229.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20