566
FXUS64 KTSA 100122
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
722 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

...New UPDATE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 722 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

 - A cold front will move across the region Wednesday morning,
   bringing gusty northwest winds and limited fire weather
   potential.

 - Near to above average temperatures persist through late week
   before additional cold fronts bring below average temps this
   weekend and early next week.

 - Precipitation chances remain very low over the next 7 days.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 722 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Surface analysis this evening puts an area of low pressure over
southern MN, with a cold front trailing to its southwest over
Nebraska. Ahead of the front across eastern OK and western AR, a
decent pressure gradient between high pressure over the central
Gulf Coast and lee side low pressure over the central/southern
High Plains remains, keeping south winds blowing. The gradient
will relax by morning as the front approaches, but nevertheless a
mild night is in store for December standards. The cold front will
move into NE OK toward daybreak Wednesday and will sweep southeast
during the day. No precipitation is expected with the front.

Lacy

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

Lingering fog and cloud across far southeast Oklahoma will
dissipate within the hour. Otherwise, breezy and warm conditions
will persist this afternoon with some gusts near 30 mph this
afternoon across the area. This will promote some limited fire
weather potential as min RH values drop into the 35 to 45 percent
range this afternoon and we are about 2 weeks removed from any
appreciable rainfall. Highs this afternoon will range form the
upper 50s to lower 60s. Lows tonight will be mild for this time
of year owing to continue southerly winds ahead of a weak boundary
set to move through the region late tonight.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Tuesday)
Issued at 1147 AM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

The upper pattern over the next week remains mostly conducive to a
series of dry cold fronts with very low rain chances throughout
the period. The first will be a weak cold front forecast to make
its way through the region during the morning hours tomorrow
bringing a change to northerly winds. Temperatures don`t appear
much colder behind this front, but a drop of about 5 degrees or so
can be expected in high temps for tomorrow compared to today.
Breezy southwesterly flow quickly returns on Thursday as the
surface high slides east with temps warming back into the 60s for
most locations. The progressive pattern continues as we move into
the weekend as another front arrives on Friday knocking temps
back several degrees for Friday afternoon.

Guidance remains uncertain, with a wide range of possibilities on
how the weekend will play out. Some scenarios show southerly
winds briefly returning on Saturday, allowing warmer temps by
Saturday afternoon while some show northerly flow and cold air
advection lasting through the day Saturday leading to lower
afternoon highs. With the uncertainties, will continue to just
lean toward the median of the guidance with highs generally in the
upper 40s(north) to lower 60s(south) on Saturday. A stronger
Arctic intrusion into the Great Lakes Area is still on track for
Saturday into Sunday with the upper air pattern supporting more of
a push of the true Arctic airmass to the east through the period.
Still, at least a glancing blow of Arctic air is still forecast
for later in the day Saturday into Sunday as another front pushes
through. Considerable spread remains in the strength of the cold
air on Sunday but right now the forecast call for highs in the 30s
to lower 40s across a good portion of the area. Trends will
continue to be monitored for possibly colder or warmer scenarios
as better agreement becomes available. There is good agreements
that any cold snap will be short lived as the surface ridge
quickly pushes well east and southerly winds return by the
beginning of the week. A warmup is expected through the first part
of next week as upper heights rise and southerly surface flow
dominates.

With dry northwesterly flow aloft dominating the period, generally
dry conditions are expected with each frontal passage. Some low
end PoPs were inserted for Saturday into Sunday morning as enough
low level moisture returns across far southeast Oklahoma into west
central Arkansas that a few very light showers or drizzle could
develop both ahead of and behind the front Saturday evening.
Additional low end rain chances are in the forecast early next
week as a surge of tropical like moisture lifts north out of the
Gulf and across southeast Oklahoma Monday into Tuesday combining
with a weak wave moving over the area.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 523 PM CST Tue Dec 9 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period with
passing high cloud. LLWS conditions are expected overnight into
Wednesday morning at all sites, both from the SW ahead of a front
overnight, and then out of the N to NW by Wednesday morning. N to
NW winds will be gusty during the day on Wednesday, with values 20
to 25 kts, before subsiding by sunset tomorrow evening.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   44  55  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   40  58  34  61 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   43  58  33  62 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   41  54  31  62 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   42  53  32  58 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   44  51  32  56 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   41  56  34  60 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   41  51  32  57 /   0   0   0   0
F10   44  57  34  62 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   40  59  34  59 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...30
SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...30