891
FXUS64 KTSA 282334
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
634 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

 - Low rain chances across NE OK Tuesday, with isolated thunder
   potential.

 - Above normal temperatures continue through mid week.

 - Unsettled weather for mid to late week. Expect several periods
   of high rain chances and heavy rain potential. Limited severe
   weather potential will exist as well.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

A band of showers has been ongoing across portions of southeast
Oklahoma through the morning hours and is finally beginning to
dissipate early this afternoon. Low chances for additional shower
development will remain possible across SE OK through the
afternoon as mid level moisture remains high over the region. Any
rainfall amounts will be light through the remainder of the day.
Otherwise, Generally partly cloudy skies with above average
temperatures will prevail through the afternoon and overnight
hours areawide.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1254 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

The main forecast impact through the extended period remains the
potential for heavy rain and flooding, along with severe weather
potential through the latter part of the work week. The overall
pattern is coming into a little better agreement over the last day
or so in regards to timing of the system. A mid level low pressure
center, currently centered near San Francisco will drop
southeastward into the Desert Southwest over the coming day,
Additionally, the remnants of current Hurricane Polo off the Baja
California Coast will drift northeastward and interact with the
approaching potent upper low. These two systems will merge by
Tuesday into Wednesday with a steady plume of tropical moisture
streaming into the Southern Plains through the latter half of the
week. The result will be an increasing heavy rain threat
developing the second half of the week, along with a limited
severe potential through the period.

Latest model guidance has come into better agreement on a more
progressive solution with the combined system. This forecast will
begin to trend to a bit faster solution than previous forecast,
which will help limit the overall high end rainfall potential over
parts of the area. The upper low is forecast to eject into the
Southern Plains on Wednesday and lift northeastward across
Oklahoma during the day Thursday. Widespread showers and storms
are expected to initiate west of the local region on Wednesday and
track toward eastern Oklahoma by late Wednesday into Thursday.
Increasing shear and modest instability associated with the
ejecting trough will aid in some severe potential as a line of
storms moves into the area Wednesday night. Damaging wind gusts
look to be the main threat, though low level profiles would
support some QLCS tornado potential with the leading line.
Additional shower and storm development is likely on Thursday as
the trough axis swings into the region before exiting the area
later in the day Thursday. Saturated, tropical like profiles with
Precipitable Water values near the climatological max for late
September supports the potential for very heavy rainfall rates
and potential flash flooding over the areas of heaviest rain. The
ongoing drought conditions will limit some of the flooding
potential as it relates to mainstem rivers and streams as most are
running well low at this point. Initially dry, hard ground could
lead to excess runoff with initial storms however which could
heighten the flash flood potential during the onset of heavier
rain Wednesday night.

Showers could linger into Friday as wrap around moisture drops
south on the backside of the exiting low and a cold front moves
into the area. The heavy rain and severe potential will be lower
during this time frame, but Friday could still be a dreary day of
cloudy, rainy, breezy conditions across the region behind the
cold front. In terms of rainfall totals, a widespread two to five
inches is forecast across much of the forecast area, while locally
higher totals of six inches plus is in the realm of possibility
where more training occurs. The remains some concern that a large
gradient in totals could set up near the I-44 corridor as a dry
slot eats into the available moisture late Wednesday into
Thursday. We will continue to keep an eye on that scenario as it
gets closer. The highest totals look to be across southeast
Oklahoma right now, but that placement could shift over the next
day or so as guidance continues to get a better handle on the
system.

Cooler and drier weather will follow the passage of the cold front
for the weekend into early next week. Some low chances for
lingering showers could continue across the southern half of the
forecast area through the weekend as the mid level trough axis
lingers near the Red River.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM CDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Few to scattered high clouds remain common into the overnight
hours for the CWA. Late tonight into Tuesday morning, scattered
mid cloud development is forecast across eastern Oklahoma along
with isolated potential for rain showers. With limited coverage
and low potential of impacts to any one terminal, will hold off
mentioning in the TAFs. Late morning through the afternoon hours,
scattered mid and high clouds are forecast for the CWA. Additional
shower/storm chances develop Tuesday afternoon for portions of
northeast Oklahoma with the greater potential northwest of TAF
sites. Winds through the period start off east/southeast tonight
and become breezy out the south/southeast Tuesday. Outside of any
precip, VFR conditions are forecast through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  88  73  88 /  20  20   0  40
FSM   65  93  71  95 /   0   0   0  20
MLC   68  95  73  94 /  20  20   0  40
BVO   63  86  68  86 /   0  30   0  50
FYV   61  88  67  91 /   0   0   0  10
BYV   61  87  69  89 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   67  91  71  91 /  20  20   0  30
MIO   64  85  70  87 /   0  10   0  30
F10   66  91  72  90 /  20  20   0  40
HHW   68  94  72  92 /  10   0   0  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...20