127
FXUS64 KTSA 091136
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
636 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 634 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

 - Areas of fog possible tonight generally along and north of
   Highway 412.

 - Thunderstorm chances increase again Saturday night into Sunday.

 - Temps near to above mid May normals forecast next week w/ low
   rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Saturday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Clearing skies noted across northeast Oklahoma into northwest
Arkansas, combined with light to calm winds will allow for the
chance of fog formation through the early morning hours. Fog could
be locally dense, especially in areas that received substantial
rainfall from the evening storms. The outflow boundary/effective
frontal boundary will drift southeastward tonight before
stalling/washing out over southeast Oklahoma by Saturday morning.
A generally pleasant day is in store on Saturday, with mostly
sunny skies, light southeasterly winds, and temperatures rising
into the upper 70s to mid 80s across the area.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through Friday)
Issued at 1145 PM CDT Fri May 8 2026

Thunderstorms are expected to develop well west of the forecast
area Saturday afternoon and track eastward toward eastern Oklahoma
by the late evening hours. The severe weather potential appears
to mainly be focused west of the local region through Saturday
night, with a lower threat with eastward progression into eastern
Oklahoma and western Arkansas. However, a cluster of strong to
marginally severe storms is progged to advance into eastern
Oklahoma and track eastward through the overnight hours Saturday,
clearing western Arkansas by daybreak Sunday. Damaging winds look
to be the main severe threat with this activity, along with
locally heavy rainfall. A stronger wave and associated frontal
boundary is progged to move over the region Sunday morning,
likely enhancing further thunderstorm development along the
boundary across northeastern Oklahoma Sunday morning. This
activity will push southeastward through the day Sunday. Again,
some strong to marginal severe storms will be possible,
especially later in the day across southeast Oklahoma where more
instability can develop.

The front pushes south of the region Sunday night into Monday,
with dry and mild conditions prevailing as surface ridging builds
into the region. Northwest flow aloft on the periphery of a
building western ridge will continue into mid week. Another weak
frontal boundary looks to move into the region Tuesday into
Tuesday night with a low chance of showers or a few storms. Upper
ridging shifts more over the region by Wednesday before beginning
to retreat southward toward the end of the week. More zonal flow
is progged to develop by the end of the week into next weekend,
with a possible uptick in storm chances possible during this time.
Trends show the pattern possibly becoming more unsettled, more
typical of mid to late May, heading into the next week.
Temperatures through the period remain near to above seasonal
averages.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Sat May 9 2026

Areas of dense fog impacting the northeast Oklahoma and northwest
Arkansas sites will burn off quickly early this morning. VFR
conditions will then prevail until late this evening and
overnight, when showers and thunderstorms will begin to move into
the area from the west. The greatest coverage of showers and
storms will be at the eastern Oklahoma sites and possibly also
KFSM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   83  61  71  49 /   0  70  70   0
FSM   86  61  77  55 /   0  60  80  30
MLC   86  64  75  55 /   0  60  90  30
BVO   83  56  71  42 /   0  60  50   0
FYV   84  59  74  49 /   0  40  80  10
BYV   82  58  71  46 /   0  30  80  10
MKO   82  60  72  51 /   0  70  70  10
MIO   81  57  69  43 /   0  30  50   0
F10   83  61  72  50 /   0  80  80  10
HHW   83  64  77  59 /   0  30  90  50

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ055>058-
     060>067-254-354.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...05