013
FXUS64 KTSA 292253
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
453 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 453 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

 - Short-lived cold snap continues through tonight with
   temperatures more typical of late December.

 - Warming trend begins Tuesday and continues through the
   upcoming week, as temps rise back above normal by midweek.

 - Low precipitation chances are forecast over the next 7 days,
   with the best chance coming Thursday night into Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through tonight )
Issued at 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Nearby surface ridge will settle overhead tonight. With clear
skies and light winds will lean forecast toward colder CONSMOS/NBM
25th %ile and previous forecast.

Lacy

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Monday)
Issued at 1029 AM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

Strong upper trough over the central CONUS that brought the cold
front will be sliding east while surface ridge drops southeast
down toward the Gulf Coast. A more westerly downslope component to
the low level flow will allow temps to moderate quickly over the
next few days.

A positive PNA pattern will prevail over the CONUS this week
downstream from a split-flow block off the West Coast. The
dislodged polar vortex over the northeast portion of NOAM
(associated with the current strongly negative AO index) will
bring continued arctic cold over the Great Lakes and Northeast,
but that cold is not expected to make it back down here in this
pattern.

Eventually the block off the West Coast opens up as another system
approaches the Pac NW. A weakening system emerging from the
current closed/cutoff upper low off the SoCal/Baja Coast will
slide east across the southern CONUS late this week as the pattern
de-amplifies. The majority and most likely scenarios presented in
the ensemble cluster data have potential for light QPF over the
region Thursday night into Friday as the system moves across. The
06z GFS didn`t develop precip with the system until it was east of
us, while the 00z EC showed better shower potential over our
area. By this time temps will be warmer and would support only
liquid as a type, if it occurs. For now, with the model blend
(NBM) going below mentionable, will insert mentionable slight
chance PoPs and leave it at that.

Next weekend into early next week looks dry with above-average
warmth continuing.

Lacy

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 453 PM CST Mon Dec 29 2025

VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   19  50  30  57 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   21  47  29  58 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   18  51  30  60 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   14  50  25  56 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   14  46  27  56 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   16  44  30  54 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   17  47  29  56 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   15  45  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
F10   18  51  30  58 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   22  48  29  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...05