Hazardous Weather Outlook
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
391 FLUS44 KTSA 172313 HWOTSA Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Tulsa OK 513 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-182315- Adair OK-Benton AR-Carroll AR-Cherokee OK-Choctaw OK-Craig OK- Crawford AR-Creek OK-Delaware OK-Franklin AR-Haskell OK-Latimer OK- Le Flore OK-Madison AR-Mayes OK-McIntosh OK-Muskogee OK-Nowata OK- Okfuskee OK-Okmulgee OK-Osage OK-Ottawa OK-Pawnee OK-Pittsburg OK- Pushmataha OK-Rogers OK-Sebastian AR-Sequoyah OK-Tulsa OK-Wagoner OK- Washington OK-Washington AR- 513 PM CST Mon Nov 17 2025 This Outlook is for Northwest and West Central Arkansas as well as much of Eastern Oklahoma. .DAY ONE...Tonight. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM. RISK...Limited. AREA...Far Northeast Oklahoma and Far Northwest Arkansas. ONSET...This Evening. DISCUSSION... Late this evening and overnight tonight, the thunderstorm potential increases over parts of far northeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Instability along with veering wind profiles will help to create a limited strong to severe potential into the overnight hours, with hail being the main threat. Precipitation should taper off and exit early Tuesday morning ahead of a weak boundary moving into the region. SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... Local Spotter Activation May Be Needed. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. TUESDAY...No Hazards. WEDNESDAY...Thunderstorm Potential. THURSDAY...Thunderstorm Potential...Heavy Rain Potential. FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...No Hazards. SUNDAY...Heavy Rain Potential. EXTENDED DISCUSSION... Shower and thunderstorm chances return Wednesday afternoon once low level moisture begins to increase over the region, ahead of an approaching low pressure system from the Desert Southwest. An isolated severe potential develops Wednesday afternoon into Wednesday night before instability begins to weaken across eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. Widespread rain showers and chances for embedded thunder continue Thursday and Thursday night with a heavy rain threat that could lead to an increase in flood concerns. This precipitation is forecast to begin tapering off Friday once the low pressure system moves over the region and a cold front drops through eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas. weather.gov/tulsa contains additional information. $$