949
FXUS65 KTWC 031932
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1232 PM MST Wed Jun 3 2026

.SYNOPSIS...

High temperatures near normal for much of the next
7 days. Moisture also makes its way into the region today and
Thursday leading to thunderstorm chances both days, then dry
Friday into the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Mostly clear skies this morning with bubbling cumulus clouds
developing along the mountains from Tucson eastward. Today the
main weather story is the concern for isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms. Satellite derived PWATs show a surge
of moisture moving in as far west at Tucson. Current PWAT values
are around 0.5 to 0.7 inches in Tucson increasing eastward with
values around 0.7 to 0.9 inches closer to the AZ/NM border.
Surface dewpoints east of the Graham/ Cochise county line is
around 45-50 degrees with values decreasing eastward with values
in the mid 30s in Tucson.

While models are not in complete agreement, there is a degree of
confidence that storms will not go further west than the
greater Tucson area/ Santa Cruz county line. There is still a
possibility that converging outflow winds may kick start a storm
into central Pima county/ Tohono O`odham Nation. That being
said, the bulk of activity will be in Cochise/ Graham/ Greenlee
counties with the fringes of activity in far eastern Pima/
Pinal/ Santa Cruz counties. Initiation for convection will begin
along the mountains and then move into the valleys starting
now. The bulk of storm activity will be between 12 to 7 PM MST.

Low level moisture is much dryer than the mid levels producing
inverted V soundings with forecast DCAPE between 1600-1900
J/kg. HREF 4 hr max wind speed has 50-90% chance for greater
than 30 kts (40 MPH) Tucson eastward with a small area near
Safford having a 10% chance of greater than 50 kts (58 MPH). The
potential for strong winds, some thunderstorms may produce
isolated wind gusts between 50-60 mph, will lead to a concern
for blowing dust especially along I-10 near the Willcox Playa.

While there is suitable moisture in place for convection there
is limited moisture for significant rainfall. The dry air in
the low levels will evaporate a majority of the rain that will
fall, especially further west from the AZ/NM border. Steering
winds today are fairly low with 0-6 km wind speeds around 5-8
kts suggesting storms will be moving very slowly. Some of the
thunderstorms may produce brief, locally moderate to heavy
rainfall with amounts between 0.25 to 0.5 inches. Flash flooding
is not a main concern associated with thunderstorms today.

After today, moisture will linger in the area leading a slight
chance for showers and thunderstorms mainly east of Tucson. The
main concerns for tomorrows thunderstorms is again wind and
blowing dust. By Friday, any remaining moisture will move out of
the area returning to dry conditions and slightly above normal
high temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION... Valid through 05/00Z.

Mostly SKC with developing cumulus clouds AOA 10-12k ft AGL
becoming FEW to SCT from KTUS eastward by 03/21Z. This afternoon
between 03/19Z to 04/05Z, ISOLD to SCT -SHRA/TS with wind gusts
up to 35-45 kts possible near t-storms. Thunderstorms will be
focused to areas from KTUS eastward. Otherwise SFC winds
ELY/SELY 8-12 kts with occasional gusts to 20 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Increasing moisture today will bring isolated to scattered
showers for the eastern half of southeast Arizona with Lingering
moisture remains across the eastern areas Thursday before
moving out of the area on Friday. Min RH values will be in the
6-18 percent range in the valleys and in the 12-25 percent range
in the mountains through this week. 20-foot winds will be the
east to southeast today with outflow winds up to 40 mph possible
near any storms that develop. After today 20-foot winds
generally be below 15 mph into the weekend. High temperatures
will be around normal for the next 7 days.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Malarkey

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