Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
347 FXUS65 KTWC 012010 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 110 PM MST Thu Oct 1 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Quiet weather today for southeast Arizona with a general warming and drying trend in place. Breezy to windy conditions are anticipated this weekend with possible minor nuisance impacts. By the middle of next week, the warming and drying trend continues bringing minor to locally moderate HeatRisk for early October. && .DISCUSSION...Quiet weather conditions this afternoon across southeast Arizona. Very few clouds except a few puffy cumulus clouds over the higher terrain mainly east of Tucson from some lingering mid-level moisture. As we head into the weekend, the overall pattern will shift from the troughiness associated with the upper level disturbance that forced recent moisture and heavy rain in our area to more of a ridge of high pressure building over the Desert Southwest and into the Great Basin. The ridge will result in a slight warming and drying trend, although temperatures are forecast to remain up to 5 degrees below normal for early October for most locales outside of Cochise County where cooler air will settle in as a backdoor cold front moves in over the weekend allowing our eastern valleys to cool into the mid to upper 70s. The backdoor cold front will also result in breezy to locally windy conditions with the surface pressure gradient starting to tighten during the day Friday and starting to relax a bit late Monday night. Big picture is we`re generally looking at sustained easterly winds remaining below advisory criteria or around 15 to 25 mph with wind gusts around 30 to 35 mph. What this equates to is minor nuisance type of impacts. Considering the time of year, potential nuisance impacts might include your patio furniture and decorations get blowing around. Might be a good idea to keep an eye on the trash cans as well. While my confidence is low on this scenario, I think it is important to at least note that brief localized gusts as high as 50 mph cannot be ruled out mainly across the Upper Gila Valley near Safford and along the State Route 83 corridor. Sudden gusts of this magnitude would certainly affect high profile vehicles. Otherwise, the warming and drying trend looks to continue through the middle of next week as a ridge of high pressure sticks around. Above normal temperatures on the horizon with temperatures possibly popping back up to 100 degrees for central and western Pima County by next weekend and highs in the upper 80s to low 90s for other locales. For early October this equates to minor to locally moderate HeatRisk affecting individuals who are rather sensitive to the heat. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 03/00Z. Clear skies across the majority of Southeast Arizona thru the forecast period. FEW 8-12k ft AGL will be possible along the AZ/NM border late this afternoon into this evening. SFC winds ELY/NELY less than 12 kts this evening shifting to the E/SE overnight and increasing to 12-14 kts with gusts to 22-26 kts by daybreak Friday. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Southeast Arizona will return to a more quiet weather regime with clear skies and below normal afternoon high temperatures expected across the majority of the area today. A building ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest will warm temperatures west of Tucson this weekend. However, a dry backdoor front will move into the area from the east, keep afternoon reading below normal east of Tucson into early next week. This front will result in breezy to locally windy east to southeast winds Friday into Monday of next week. Right now I am thinking the most likely outcome is sustained easterly winds generally between 15 to 25 mph and gusts 30-35 mph, but there is a weak signal for locally higher end gusts upwards of 50 mph across the higher terrain areas near Sonoita and Elgin as well as the Upper Gila Valley near Safford. Minimum RH values will remain in the 35-45 percent in valley locations and 50-75 percent in the mountains today, generally lowering to 15-25 percent the second half of next week as drier air moves into the region. 20-foot winds will be less than 15 mph today, with gusty east to southeast winds Friday through early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None. && $$ DVS Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson