Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
271 FXUS65 KTWC 050926 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 226 AM MST Fri Jun 5 2026 .SYNOPSIS... High temperatures will remain near to slightly above normal through the coming work week. Breezy conditions are expected each afternoon, especially today and Saturday in the Gila River Valley through Safford. && .DISCUSSION... Moisture will continue to nudge east today, pushing shower/thunderstorm chances east of the New Mexico border. There will be some lingering moisture in the eastern counties this afternoon with precipitable water values to 0.7", which will at least allow for afternoon cloud build-ups and some virga. A very light rain shower can`t be ruled out over the White Mountains or Chiricahuas but otherwise the forecast across southeastern Arizona is dry today. A slowly exiting closed low over northern Mexico with a ridge axis to the northwest will turn surface winds to the northwest today. While overall these winds will remain in the 10-15 mph range, stronger winds are expected through the Gila River valley with 18-24 mph winds and gusts up to 35 mph. A similar wind pattern is likely on Saturday. Where winds become strongest in the Gila (as well as the upper Aravaipa Valley), periods of critical fire weather conditions are likely with afternoon relative humidities falling below 10 percent. The wind pattern will shift Sunday onwards as west coast troughing sets up. This will bring daily southwesterly breezes across southeastern Arizona while keeping the forecast mostly dry through the forecast period. There is a small fraction of forecast models that bring a modest push of moisture back into the region by the middle to late portions of next week, but cloud build-ups and virga look more likely than an increase in shower chances at this moment, at least until the end of next week. Forecast high temperatures sit near normal to a few degrees above normal through next week. && .AVIATION...Valid through 06/12Z. FEW-SCT ceilings 12k-15k feet mainly near and east of KSAD-KOLS, becoming SCT-BKN after 05/21Z. Surface winds become northwest 8-14 kts after 05/18Z, stronger at KSAD 17-20 kts with gusts up to 32 kts through 06/03Z, diminishing thereafter. A few stronger gusts possible this afternoon and early evening under virga possible mainly in eastern areas including KSAD-KDUG. && .FIRE WEATHER... Drier conditions today as moisture has moved out to the east. Minimum relative humidity values will drop into the single digits across most lower elevation locations with 10-15 percent values in the mountains. Winds will become northwesterly 10-15 mph across much of southeastern Arizona, though stronger through the Gila River Valley at 18-24 mph with gusts up to 35 mph from late this morning through the early evening. This wind and low relative humidity combination through the Gila (and into the upper Aravaipa Valley) will bring periods of locally critical fire weather conditions today. Similar winds are likely tomorrow with again locally critical or near critical fire weather conditions in the Gila. Winds Sunday onwards will turn to the southwest with winds 12-18 mph and gusts up to 25 mph each afternoon through much of next week. Relative humidities remain 8-14 percent through at least early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Edwards AVIATION...Edwards FIRE WEATHER...Edwards Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson