713
FXUS65 KTWC 281503
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
803 AM MST Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Low grade monsoon forecast with daily chances for
showers and thunderstorms favoring areas south and east of Tucson.
Near normal high temperatures into this upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...Mostly clear skies this morning with some lingering
clouds from overnight. Substantial moisture remains in the area
with suitable instability focused to areas south and east of
Tucson. Thus, isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon will be focused there. Temperatures will be a few
degrees warmer than yesterday with highs around 93-99 in the lower
elevations and 67-73 in the higher elevations.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 309 AM MST Thu Aug 28 2025/

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery this morning showed partly to
mostly cloudy conditions across SE AZ; moisture from post-tropical
cyclone Juliette moving into srn CA, and considerable cloudiness
over Sonora Mx that is a mix of moisture from Juliette and a
decaying MCC south of Hermosillo.

For today: Isolated shower/thunderstorm activity will mainly be
south and east of Tucson with best chances along the Intl border
from Nogales east.

Friday: Less cloud cover around with areas south and east once
again seeing the best chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Saturday: Afternoon/evening showers and thunderstorms once again
favoring areas east and south of Tucson.

Sunday thru mid next week: Flow aloft turns more favorable for
the potential of an uptick in daily chance of showers and
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 29/12Z.
BKN-SCT 9k-12k ft AGL thru much of valid pd. Isold -SHRA/-TSRA
mainly btwn 28/20Z and 20/03Z and mainly S and E of KTUS. Expect
gusty and erratic winds with any TSRA outflow. Otrw SFC winds
generally E-SE less than 12 kts. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF Amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily chances for rain showers and
thunderstorms into this weekend with potential for an uptick in
thunderstorm activity early next week. High temperatures will be
near or slightly above normal into this weekend. Winds will
generally remain less than 15 mph with typical afternoon
gustiness. Min RHs will be 25-35 percent in the low elevations
and 40-55 percent in the mountains through Saturday then min RHs
drop to 15-25 percent in the low elevations and to 20-35 percent
in the mountains through Labor Day.

&&

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Malarkey

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