Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
280 FXUS65 KTWC 102147 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 247 PM MST Wed Jun 10 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy afternoons with high temperatures 1 to 6 degrees above normal will continue through this weekend for southeast Arizona. Increasing moisture will return starting Thursday with slight chances for thunderstorms each day through this weekend and into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Current upper level pattern across the region is characterized by low pressure aloft west of central Baja California, high pressure aloft just south of New Mexico and broad troughing across the northern Great Basin and western high plains. Southeast arizona is placed in between the features to our south and northern trough. This leaves us with weather similar to Tuesday under flow aloft characterized by stretched deformation, as latest WV imagery suggests. The northern trough translates eastward overnight. This will allow mutual circulation between our southern low/high pair to advect increasing mid and upper level moisture into our area from northwest Mexico beginning Thursday and introduce slight storm chances as early as Friday. PW values will climb to just over one inch across southeast Arizona Friday and Saturday, with readings up to 1.5 inches across southwest Arizona during that period. Threat for storms continues through the weekend, followed by return to drier weather early next week as suggested by GEFS and other ensembles. Longer range ensembles outlooks suggest another another upper level trough to move through the central/southern rockies at that time and reintroduce drier air into the region at that time && .AVIATION...Valid through 12/00Z. FEW clouds at 10-13k feet. SCT clouds at 280-300 after 11/11Z. Surface winds west/northwest 8-14 kts through 11/02Z, becoming light with local drainages thereafter through 11/14z. Surface winds increase and become west/northwest 8-14 kts after 11/18Z with gusts to 20 kts. Stronger 15-20 kt northwest winds expected through KSAD after 11/18Z with gust up to 28 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Winds will remain west-northwesterly 12-18 mph with gusts to 25-30 mph along the Gila River Valley again Thursday. Minimum relative humidity values will continue low at 8-17 percent Thursday, climbing to 15-30 percent by Saturday under increasing moisture over the region through the weekend. This will return chances for showers and thunderstorms with gusty outflow winds and lightning as early as Friday, with better chances (generally 15-35 percent) into early next week. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SYNOPSIS... DISCUSSION...Tripoli AVIATION...Tripoli FIRE WEATHER...Tripoli Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson