Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
437 FXUS65 KTWC 040952 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 252 AM MST Sun Oct 4 2026 .SYNOPSIS...Breezy to windy east winds expected across much of southeastern Arizona through Monday. This morning into the early afternoon will see the strongest winds. Temperatures through this period will be near to just below normal, with some warming by the middle of next week. && .DISCUSSION...High pressure is in place over the Southwest and will remain over the region through the end of the work week. At the surface an easterly pressure gradient is still in place and will lead to breezy to windy easterly winds through Monday. Winds today will be fairly strong with sustained speeds 20-30 mph and gusts 35-50 mph. Expect wind speeds to pick up around sunrise, peaking mid morning into the early afternoon. A Wind Advisory is in effect from central Pima County eastward this morning into the afternoon. Wind speeds decrease Monday, generally 12-18 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. High temperatures will be around normal to just below normal through Monday with low temperatures staying elevated thanks to the downslope easterly winds. Monday models show a modest increase in moisture just to the south in Sonora from the tropics. PWATs may increase to 1.5" in far western Pima County, but at this time NBM Pops are below 10 percent. This time of year with no synoptic scale influence surface heating is not enough to form thunderstorms most of the time. As a result rain chances stay well to the south of the border with some buildups possible over the higher terrain. Wednesday a weak shortwave moves through Arizona bringing slight chances (20 percent) for precip in the White Mountains. Temperatures stay around normal through the remainder of the work week. Also can expect another round of breezy easterly winds starting Thursday into the first part of the weekend, but at this time do not look as strong as the past few days. && .AVIATION...Valid through 05/12Z. Mostly SKC with FEW-SCT clouds over higher terrain through the forecast period. East winds will continue through the forecast period with speeds this morning into the afternoon 20-30 kts with gusts 30-40 kts. By 05/00Z, wind speeds will decrease to 15-25 kts and gusts around 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Breezy to windy easterly winds continue through Monday across much of Southeast Arizona. The strongest winds will be this morning into the early afternoon with speeds of 20 to 30 mph and gusts 40-50 mph. Ridge tops and exposed areas can see stronger gusts. Minimum relative humidity values will remain 30-40 percent in lower elevations and above 50 percent in high elevation terrain. Tuesday and Wednesday expect terrain driven winds, then easterly winds return Thursday into the first part of the weekend. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Wind Advisory from 8 AM this morning to 2 PM MST this afternoon for AZZ503>509-511>515. && $$ Hardin Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson