Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
293 FXUS65 KTWC 071604 AFDTWC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tucson AZ 904 AM MST Fri Aug 7 2026 .UPDATE...Satellite shows cloud cover over Sonora with some evidence of a weak MCV forming from the remnants of last night`s MCS. This will lead to cloudy skies along the border, but elsewhere will be mostly clear. Heights begin to increase slightly today leading to high temperatures 4-6 degrees above normal. Hi-res guidance shows isolated thunderstorms forming this afternoon over the higher terrain east of Tucson then moving west southwest into the lower deserts. By late afternoon into the evening expect thunderstorm coverage to extend into Tucson and central Pima County. Although, the latest run of the HRRR (07/14Z) does show isolated storms over the Catalinas and possibly Tucson by 3 PM, but confidence is low in this scenario since it`s one model and one run of that model. The atmospheric environment will support isolated severe wind gusts and this is backed up by the HREF showing a 10 percent probability for wind gusts 50 kts or greater from Tucson eastward late this afternoon and evening. PWAT values will be right around normal with locally heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding a threat as well, especially over areas that have seen rainfall over the past few days. && .SYNOPSIS...Today marks the halfway point of the 2026 Monsoon. Expect daily chances of showers and thunderstorms over the next week across southeast Arizona with day to day variability in coverage. High temperatures through Sunday will run 5 to 8 degrees above normal, then around normal next week. && .DISCUSSION...Welcome to the halfway mark of the 2026 Monsoon, which, depending on where one lives in southeast Arizona, either has been poor so far (northern Graham, parts of SE Pinal, and parts of Tucson metro) or very good, (Cochise and Santa Cruz counties and eastern parts of the Tohono O`odham nation). Satellite imagery early this morning showed a slowly decaying MCS across northeast Sonora MX, while radar showed a a couple elevated light showers between Nogales and Sierra Vista. Current cloud cover over the area will slowly decrease this morning. For today, streamlines shows weak disturbance at 500 mb while at 300 mb there will be a slight increase in upper level divergence. Storm activity over the mountains will be slow to get going, with scattered storms developing after 2 pm and slowly moving off the higher terrain under NE flow aloft. Main threat from storms will be strong gusty winds with 07/00z HREF showing neighborhood probabilities of 10% for 58+ mph wind gusts mainly across the eastern zones with Tucson on the western periphery. Can`t run out localized heavy rain and flash flooding, especially along the Intl border. 7 This weekend into next week, expect daily chances of showers and thunderstorms with day-to-day variability in areal coverage across SE Arizona. The usual monsoon hazards will be around each day. High temperatures today through Sunday will run 5 to 8 degrees above normal, then be around normal next week. 8 to 14 day outlooks (August 14-20): Both temperature and precipitation are leaning above normal. && .AVIATION...Valid thru 08/12Z. Widely scattered showers can be expected between 07/20z and 08/04z with gusty erratic winds of 35-45 kts possible with any thunderstorm. Cigs will be SCT- BKN 8k-12k ft AGL this afternoon and evening from Tucson south and eastward, slowly dissipating overnight. Outside of storms SFC winds WLY/NWLY at 8-12 kts with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 kts this afternoon and evening. SFC winds light and terrain driven after 08/05Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments. && .FIRE WEATHER...Expect daily afternoon and evening thunderstorms into next week with some variation in coverage each day. Minimum relative humidity values will be 20-40 percent into early next week with temperatures 2-8 degrees above normal. Outside of thunderstorms, winds terrain driven to around 10 mph with occasional afternoon gusts to 20 mph. && .TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Visit us on Facebook, X, YouTube, and at weather.gov/Tucson