946
FXUS65 KTWC 120805
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
105 AM MST Thu Jun 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and hot conditions will continue across southeast
Arizona through at least early next week. Temperatures peak this
Saturday through Monday, with extreme heat across southeast Arizona
and highs 8 to 12 degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Well, it`s that time of year we go from hot to very
hot and then back to hot again. The only relief will be when the
monsoon pattern finally sets up, and with it, increasing moisture
and precipitation.

High pressure aloft currently centered over the eastern Pacific will
shift into southern Arizona/New Mexico this weekend. This will
result in high temperatures of 3-6 degrees above normal rising to 8-
12 degrees above normal Sunday and Monday. The normal high in Tucson
this time of year is 101 degrees. NBM probabilities of 110+ degrees
this Saturday in Tucson are at 25 percent, with 60+ percent
probabilities Sunday and 40 percent on Monday. An Extreme Heat Watch
remains in effect from Saturday morning through Monday evening for
the lower elevations of southeast Arizona. Expect Major HeatRisk
across the lower elevations of southeast Arizona this weekend. High
temperatures lower several degrees mid to late next week as system
moves across the Great Basin flattening the upper ridge. However,
readings will still be 2-5 degrees above normal next week.

Breezy west to northwest winds will continue east of Tucson across
portions of Cochise and Graham counties and especially in the upper
Gila River valley near Safford through Friday. Peak afternoon/early
evening wind speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts to around 30 mph are
expected. The strongest winds will be in the upper Gila River valley
near Safford, with the possibility of a few hours of near critical
fire weather conditions.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 13/12Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 20k ft AGL areawide thru the forecast period,
with SCT clouds at 10k-13k ft AGL NE of KSAD in the White Mountains.
SFC wind generally less than 12 kts and variable in direction thru
12/18Z and again aft 13/03Z. WLY/NWLY SFC wind between 12/18Z and
12/03Z at 8-13 kts west of a KTUS to KOLS line, with wind speeds of
12-17 kts and gusts to 20-27 kts east of this line in the vicinity
of KDUG, KALK and especially KSAD. Aviation discussion not updated
for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry and hot conditions are expected across southeast
Arizona through early next week. Generally single digit min RH
values in the valleys, with mountain locations in the 10-18 percent
range. 20-foot winds will be 15 mph or less from Tucson westward,
with occasional afternoon/early evening gusts to around 25 mph due
to the strong surface heating. East of Tucson, breezy afternoon and
early evening 20-foot winds are expected across portions of Cochise
and Graham counties through Friday, with peak wind speeds of 15-20
mph and gusts to around 30 mph. The strongest winds will be in the
upper Gila River valley near Safford, with the possibility of a few
hours of near critical fire weather conditions.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Watch from Saturday morning through Monday evening for
AZZ501>509.

&&

$$

Zell

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson