Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 022130

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
230 PM MST Tue Mar 2 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Warmer daytime temperatures continue into tomorrow
before another storm system brings a chance of showers, mainly
north of Tucson, Wednesday evening into Thursday morning.
Thereafter, dry and warmer Friday into this weekend.


.DISCUSSION...Gusty east to southeast winds continue this
afternoon with temperatures 4 to 13 degrees warmer than Monday.

Main weather focus tomorrow will be associated with a closed low
that is currently moving south about 600 hundred miles W/SW of
Frisco. This feature will bottom out later tonight well west of
San Diego before making the turn and moving across southern CA
Wednesday then across Arizona Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. Main impact across southeast Arizona will be strong
gusty winds and fire weather concerns. See fire weather section
for more information. On the precipitation side, the best moisture
will be across the northern half of Arizona with the areas north
of Tucson, or across eastern Pinal, Graham and Greenlee counties
have a slight chance of showers/mountain snow showers. A few
inches of snow possible across the White mountains. Highs will be
several degrees warmer than today.

Thursday: A few lingering snow showers in the morning for the
White mountains, otherwise cooler on back side of departing
system. Highs will run 5-15 degrees cooler than Wednesday with
largest change being from Tucson east.

Friday: Cool down short lived with ridging overhead as highs will
be up 5-15 degrees versus Thursday with largest change being from
Tucson west.

Saturday/Sunday: Warm weekend with highs around 10 degrees above
normal. Sunday could end up warmer than currently forecast with
ridging overhead in advance of the next Pacific system. In-house
thickness study suggest possible first 85 of the year for Tucson.
Most recent NBM guidance has around a 10% chance for this

Monday/Tuesday: Ensembles hint at another weather system possibly
affecting southeast Arizona`s weather early next week with another
round of gusty winds and cooler temperatures but little rainfall.


.AVIATION...Valid through 04/00Z.
FEW clouds AOA 20k ft MSL through tonight then SCT-BKN 10k-15k MSL
Wednesday afternoon. SFC wind ELY/SELY at 10-15 kts and gusts up
through the afternoon then diminishing to below 10 kts through the
overnight hours. Winds pick up again late Wednesday morning into the
afternoon out of the S/SW 15-20 kts with gusts 30-40 kts. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and breezy to locally windy easterly
winds through this afternoon. A weather system will result in gusty
south to southwest winds late Wednesday morning through afternoon,
with the strongest winds from Tucson westward. Speeds will range
from 15-25 mph with gusts up to 40 mph. These strong winds combined
with low relative humidities has prompted the Fire Weather Watch to
be upgraded to a Red Flag Warning. It will be in effect from Tucson
westward late Wednesday morning through the afternoon. As this
system passes through, there will be a slight chance of showers
Wednesday evening into early Thursday, mainly north of Tucson. Dry
conditions and warmer temperatures return by Friday and continue
into early next week. Daytime high temperatures over the upcoming
weekend will be 7-10 degrees above normal.


 Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 6 PM MST Wednesday for AZZ150.



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