Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 250318

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
818 PM MST Sat Mar 24 2018

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty afternoon winds are expected again Sunday and
Monday, but dry weather will prevail. Another weather system will
bring a slight chance of mountain snow showers Tuesday. Daytime
temperatures will be near normal Sunday but cooler Monday and
Tuesday before a warmup begins Wednesday.


Broad southwesterly flow remains in place across the region this
evening. IR satellite imagery reveals a fairly extensive band of
cloud cover stretching across southeast Arizona through New Mexico
and into Colorado, but little in the way of rain showers. A few
spots across Santa Cruz and Cochise Counties received measurable
precip earlier in the day but those showers have long since
dissipated. The gusty winds region-wide have also tapered off with
nearly all reporting sites showing 10kts or less as of 03Z.

Cloud cover will gradually erode from Tucson westward overnight,
although it will be stubbornly persistent to the east and I held
onto cloud cover for most of the night across
Graham/Greenlee/Cochise Co`s. Made some other minor tweaks to the
forecast based on latest runs of the NBM and HRRR, otherwise the
forecast looks to be in great shape. Another round of breezy winds
are forecast on Sunday but no chance of precip as the atmosphere
will be too dry.


.AVIATION...Valid through 26/06Z.
Clouds will linger around KDUG for most of the night but clearing is
expected elsewhere. Additional high cloud cover is expected to
arrive Sunday afternoon. As for winds, light diurnally driven
through Sunday morning, becoming southwesterly in the afternoon with
gusts in the 25-30 knot range possible. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect breezy conditions to redevelop both Sunday
and Monday afternoons. Winds will be slightly weaker Sunday than
today, then a bit stronger again Monday. Humidities will be the
lowest Sunday compared to today and Monday. Thus, sustained 20-foot
winds will be the limiting factor for critical fire weather
conditions Sunday, although gusts to 35 mph could still occur in far
SE areas. A Fire Weather Watch remains in in effect for southeast
Cochise County on Sunday.

On Monday, cooler temps and resultant higher humidities will be
the limiting factor for critical fire weather condition despite
windy conditions in Cochise County. Winds will be substantially
reduced Tuesday as low pressure passes near, and high terrain
snow showers will be possible.

A return to warmer temperatures is expected for the latter half of
the work week with a fairly normal diurnal wind pattern.


Gusty west or southwest afternoon winds are forecast again Sunday
and Monday in moderately strong southwest flow between low pressure
to our west and high pressure to our south. Monday should be the
windier of the two days.

As low pressure approaches Monday, cooler daytime temperatures will
occur. The low will try to cut off over the Four Corners area
Tuesday. This will result in a continuation of cool temperatures and
a few mountain snow showers may also be generated.

Models have sped up the exit of low pressure Tuesday night and
Wednesday, so have removed mention of showers from Wednesday`s
forecast. As high pressure builds into the region sooner, the
ensuing warmup should begin Wednesday afternoon, but temperatures
will not be back above normal until Thursday.


Fire Weather Watch from Sunday morning through Sunday afternoon
for AZZ152.




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