Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 131016

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
316 AM MST Thu May 13 2021

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal high temperatures today and Friday, with a
slight chance of mostly dry thunderstorms near the New Mexico border
mainly Friday afternoon. Late in the weekend into early next week a
storm system looks like it may impact the region with wind followed
by cooler temperatures.


.DISCUSSION...Warmer temperatures today and Friday, with Tucson
making another run at the first occurrence of 100 degrees this year.
Models continued to show some moisture increasing along the New
Mexico state line later today and more so on Friday. This moisture
in combination with daytime heating could trigger a few showers and
thunderstorms, mainly Friday in the White Mountains. Otherwise, dry
conditions will prevail elsewhere. The high pressure aloft
responsible for the above normal daytime temperatures will shift
east of the area as a weather system tracks south along the
California coast late Friday and over the weekend. Latest ensemble
solutions depicted a rather slow track for the weather system which
will enter AZ around Sunday night and exit by Tuesday afternoon.
This system will bring strong and gusty winds to the area this
weekend as it approaches the state. Shower and thunderstorm chances
will also return to the White Mountains each afternoon from Monday
to Wednesday. Otherwise, the weather system will bring gusty winds
followed by cooler temperatures this weekend into next week.


.AVIATION...Valid through 14/12Z. SKC through 13/18Z, then FEW-SCT
14k-18k MSL this afternoon mainly east of KTUS. SFC winds SELY less
than 10 kts this morning becoming SW to NW 8-12 kts with gusts to 20
kts this afternoon and early evening. Winds then become southeast
again overnight. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


.FIRE WEATHER...Expect hot temps through Friday then a cool down
over the weekend into early next week. Today there is a slight
chance the White Mountains see a thunderstorms or two. Friday storm
chances expand to include areas east of Highway 191 with the best
chances in the White Mountains. Thunderstorm chances then return to
the White Mountains each afternoon next week Monday-Wednesday. These
storms likely won`t produce much rainfall with the main threat being
lightning and gusty outflow winds.

This weekend winds will increase as a storm system begins to move
through. Expect breezy winds out of the southwest 12-20 mph area
wide Saturday and Sunday. Monday and Tuesday breezy winds will be
confined mainly from Tucson eastward. Min RH values will be in the
single digits to low teens over the next week.





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