Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 212144

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
244 PM MST Sat May 21 2022

Dry weather, breezy afternoons, and near normal temperatures will
continue into early next week. By the middle of next week,
temperatures will be on the rise again and folks can expect upper
90s to low 100 degree temps for the lower deserts through late in
the week.


.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday.
The region will remain under mean layer troughing today and
tomorrow before the trough slowly shifts eastward, making an exit
Monday into Tuesday. Near normal temperatures and breezy
afternoons will be the result with no chance of rain. High clouds
will increase overnight tonight and linger for much of Sunday. The
sun is getting stronger as we enter the summer months. Make sure
to take precautions to protect from sun exposure like applying
sunscreen and wearing hats and sunglasses; even on cloudier days.

A ridge will build across the area behind the exiting trough
allowing for an upward trend in temperatures back into the upper
90s to low 100s for the lower elevations Wednesday through Friday.
Lighter winds are expected. There is still some variability Friday
onward with the entrance of a shortwave trough which could dampen
the ridge. Some solutions have the ridge holding strong over the
region into the weekend. This will impact the temps and winds
mostly but either scenario doesn`t look very impactful outside of
an increase fire weather concern if winds trend upward.


.AVIATION...Valid through 23/00z.
Gusty, S-SW winds will prevail through 03z this evening at 12-16
kts gusting around 25 kts. Gusts diminish shortly after sunset as
winds come down to 8 kts or less with SW winds shifting to the SE
around 06z. Between 16z-19z Sunday, winds will increase once
again from the SW reaching speeds similar to today. High clouds,
at or above 20k ft will increase from the south after 03z
tonight, becoming broken through 18z-21z Sunday. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.


Dry conditions with near normal temperatures are expected through
the middle of next week. Ridge will build in mid to late next week
allowing temperatures to rise several degrees. Winds will remain
gusty each day through Tuesday. Speeds this afternoon will be
lighter than Friday`s with a further decrease on Sunday. Monday
and Tuesday will see elevated westerly winds, focused across the
Upper Gila River Valley where elevated fire weather conditions
will be likely. RH values will drop to critical levels each
afternoon through late next week across a majority of southeast




Fire Weather....Guillet

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