Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 302100

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
200 PM MST Tue May 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions will continue for most of the area into
this weekend with generally cooler than average late May to early
June temperatures. The White mountains will see a slight chance of
showers and storms this weekend. Winds will be breezy at times during
the afternoon, especially Wednesday.


.DISCUSSION...An upper level low along the southern California coast
will move east across northern Arizona through Thursday. This will
result in afternoon southwest breezes into this evening and slightly
stronger breeziness Wednesday resulting in elevated fire weather
conditions across a large area with local and brief critical
conditions in the typically windiest locations south and east of
Tucson. Not enough duration or areal coverage for headlines at this
time and today`s guidance is a bit lower than yesterday.

The other affect of this passing low will be rather cool (for late
May/Early June) temperatures. Wednesday and Thursday will be 8-13
degrees cooler than average.

Thereafter, heights will rise over the weekend as another upper low
settles in off the southern California coast. This will allow
temperatures to rebound through the weekend and peak Monday. Even
with this nice warmup we will still only rise to near or a couple of
degrees below average Monday. Through this transition enough
moisture will be present over northeast AZ for a threat of a few
showers or possibly a thunderstorm over the White Mountains Saturday
into Monday during the late afternoon and early evening hours.

That second low off the CA coast is expected to move across the area
late Monday through Wednesday with afternoon temperatures dropping
back to around 5-7 degrees cooler than average. After that low
passes by, yet another low settles off the California coast in its
place and that one is eventually going to work its way across the
area with the overall result being additional days with cooler than
average temperatures a good bet with somewhat elevated southwest
winds for early June.


.AVIATION...Valid through 01/00Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 15k ft MSL east of KTUS through 31/06Z SKC and
again after 31/21Z, otherwise SKC. SLY/SWLY SFC winds at 12-18 kts
with gusts to 25 kts until 31/03Z then becoming variable at less than
10 kts. SW SFC winds increasing again after 31/18Z to 15-20 kts with
gusts around 30 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF


.FIRE WEATHER...Very dry conditions this week with min RH values
5-15% for the valleys and 12-22% for the mountains. 20-ft winds will
be primarily out of the southwest this week with the strongest winds
expected Wednesday of 15-20 mph with gusts up to 35 mph, except
local wind prone areas peaking briefly around 25 mph sustained
resulting in local and brief periods of critical fire weather
conditions for areas to the south and east of Tucson Wednesday. High
temperatures this week will be a bit cooler than normal as we start
June but will quickly rebound for the weekend with a chance of a few
showers or thunderstorms across the White mountains Saturday onward.


.CLIMATE...The official forecast high for the Tucson airport on
Wednesday, the last day of May, is 90 degrees. This would be the
coolest May 31st high since 2005 when it was 93 degrees. A
forecast high on the 1st day of June of 88 degrees would be the
coolest to start June since 1991 when is was 80 degrees. The
normal high for May 31st and June 1st is 98 degrees.




Fire Weather....Cerniglia

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