Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ

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FXUS65 KTWC 171626
AFDTWC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
926 AM MST Thu Jan 17 2019

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and mild today. Another system will bring a chance
of valley rain and mountain snow late tonight into Friday, mainly
north and east of Tucson. Strong warming over the weekend will give
way to another system early next week. Plenty of cool air, but it
may be on the dry side this far south, except for a few snow showers
in the mountains.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Current satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies
with just a line of cirrocumulus to the west of Tucson moving
eastward. An upper level low is currently situated off the
California coast and will move inland towards Arizona over the next
couple of days. Temperatures today will be a few degrees above
normal with increasing cloudiness from west to east as the
aforementioned upper level low moves into the region. Current
forecast looks on track so no updates were made to the grids. For
more details please see the previous discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 18/18Z.
FEW-SCT clouds AOA 25k ft AGL for the remainder of the morning into
the early afternoon, becoming SCT-BKN areawide AOA 15k ft AGL by
17/20Z. Lowering cloud decks and a slight chance of -SHRA northeast
of KTUS expected tonight into Tuesday morning. Surface wind less
than 12 kts and becoming WLY/NWLY during the afternoon hours.
Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions will prevail into this evening. The
next chance of valley rain and mountain snow occurs mainly northeast
of Tucson late tonight through Friday. Dry conditions are then
expected Saturday into Tuesday morning, with a slight chance of
showers in the White Mountains during the day Tuesday. Gusty
northwest winds of 15 to 20 mph will occur Friday, mainly from
Tucson eastward and especially in the upper Gila River Valley.
Elevated east to southeast winds may occur Saturday and Sunday.
Breezy west to southwest winds return Monday afternoon. Otherwise,
20-foot winds will be under 15 mph.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...Short wave ridging over the area today in advance
of the next weather system that will bring a chance of valley rain
and mountain snow showers to parts of southeast Arizona late tonight
into Friday. Latest model runs have backed off areal coverage of
showers with the best chances occurring N-NE of Tucson. Rainfall
amounts generally less than 0.10" with snow amounts above 7000 feet
in the 1-3" range for the White mountains. Gusty NW winds will also
be around Friday, with the strongest gusts occurring in NW to SE
oriented valleys. Upper level ridging over the desert southwest this
weekend, then a weather system moves through the Great Basin on
Monday and east of the state on Tuesday. This system will bring
gusty winds to the area on Monday and then a slight chance of
rain/snow showers to the White mountains late Monday night into
Tuesday.

Warmer today with highs 3-5 degrees above normal. Near normal highs
Friday and Saturday then turning much warmer on Sunday. Current
forecast highs for Sunday may not be warm enough. Cooler Tuesday
then much cooler Tuesday and Wednesday with below normal highs. The
coldest eastern and southern valleys will see morning lows in the
mid to upper 20s this weekend and then again Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

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