Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
Issued by NWS Tucson, AZ
954
FNUS75 KTWC 120207
FWSTWC
Spot Forecast for MULE DEER...USFS
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
707 PM MST Tue Aug 11 2026
Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 MST on August 11.
.DISCUSSION...Chance for thunderstorms moving in from the east late
this evening. Confidence on storms making it to the fire is lowering,
but if storms do make it they could persist overnight. Wednesday and
Thursday expect isolated to scattered thunderstorms each afternoon and
evening with a chance for overnight activity Wednesday night.
Thunderstorms will be capable of gusts 30-45 mph and heavy rainfall.
Outside of storms winds will be 5-10 mph out of the west southwest.
Min RH will be around 50 percent with very good overnight recoveries.
.TONIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
between 9 PM and 3 AM.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Min temperature.....67-70 degrees.
Max humidity........77-80 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 7 to 12 mph shifting to the
south 5 to 10 mph overnight. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (52000 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (2000
knot-ft).
Mixing height.......4700 ft AGL decreasing to 500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 5 to 11 knots.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........75 67 52 64
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
Weather type.... RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE S CHC
CWR.............0 40 40 20
Temp............84 77 73 70
RH..............45 56 67 71
20 FT wind......SW 10G16 SW 5G6 S 6G8 SW 4G6
Mix hgt (ft)....4700 700 500 500
Transport wind..W 11 SW 9 SW 6 SW 6
Vrate kt-ft/1K..52 7 3 3
Ventrate Cat....GOOD POOR POOR POOR
.WEDNESDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon and evening.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....80-83 degrees.
Min humidity........52-55 percent.
20-foot winds.......West southwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (2000 knot-ft) early in the morning
increasing to marginal (9200 knot-ft) in the
afternoon increasing to fair (26300 knot-ft).
Mixing height.......1800 ft AGL increasing to 4100 ft AGL in the
afternoon.
Transport winds.....Southwest 4 to 5 knots shifting to the west 6
to 11 knots in the late morning and afternoon.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........77 86 71 80
Weather cov..... CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type.... RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 30 50
Temp............68 74 78 81
RH..............78 71 59 53
20 FT wind......S 4G6 W 6G7 W 7G10 W 9G14
Mix hgt (ft)....500 1800 3500 3900
Transport wind..S 4 W 6 W 8 W 10
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 9 25 27
Ventrate Cat....POOR MRGL FAIR FAIR
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms.
Chance of pcpn......60 percent decreasing to 30 percent after
midnight.
Min temperature.....65-68 degrees.
Max humidity........85-88 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph. Gusty and erratic
winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair (23500 knot-ft) decreasing to marginal
(9400 knot-ft) early in the evening decreasing
to poor (2000 knot-ft) late in the night.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 4 to 10 knots.
TIME (MST) 6 PM 9 PM MIDNGT 3 AM
Sky (%).........64 64 74 78
Weather cov.....CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
CWR.............50 50 40 30
Temp............77 73 71 68
RH..............60 67 74 78
20 FT wind......SW 6G10 SW 6G8 SW 5G7 SW 4G6
Mix hgt (ft)....2300 500 400 700
Transport wind..W 10 SW 7 SW 5 SW 5
Vrate kt-ft/1K..24 3 2 3
Ventrate Cat....FAIR POOR POOR POOR
.THURSDAY...
Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms
in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......50 percent.
Max temperature.....80-83 degrees.
Min humidity........50-53 percent.
20-foot winds.......Southwest winds 5 to 8 mph shifting to the west
5 to 10 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
erratic winds expected near thunderstorms.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft) increasing to fair (37800
knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to
good (42800 knot-ft) in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1600 ft AGL increasing to 5300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 3 to 6 knots shifting to the west 7 to 8
knots late in the morning.
TIME (MST) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM
Sky (%).........75 75 71 71
Weather cov..... S CHC CHANCE
Weather type.... RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........ S CHC CHANCE
CWR.............0 0 20 50
Temp............66 72 79 81
RH..............86 74 56 51
20 FT wind......S 3G6 S 5G8 SW 7G11 W 7G13
Mix hgt (ft)....500 2500 4800 5300
Transport wind..S 3 S 6 SW 8 W 8
Vrate kt-ft/1K..2 15 38 43
Ventrate Cat....POOR MRGL FAIR GOOD
$$
Forecaster...Hardin
Requested by...SARAH TOLSON
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619398.2/TWC
.DELDT 08/11/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL AZTDC@FIRENET.GOV,amberclad@cox.net
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