289
FXUS63 KUNR 020357
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
957 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated light precipitation expected through tonight.

- Breezy through the weekend.

- Near or above normal temperatures through the forecast period.

- Mostly dry conditions expected over the next week.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 948 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Weak mid level FGEN will continue across NW SD through tonight,
supporting sprinkles or light showers at times. Otherwise, no sig
changes to the previous forecast. Upper trough will slide east of
the region this weekend, dropping the next cool front through the
area Saturday. This will knock temps down a few degrees, esp
across eastern areas Sunday. Warming up after with temps into the
80s Monday and Tues next week with dry weather continuing.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Thursday)
Issued at 208 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Current Water Vapor and upper air models show northwest flow
aloft, with an upper low located over the southern plains. 20Z
surface analysis shows high pressure over eastern MT, while the
cold front that passed through us this morning is now in eastern
Nebraska. Current radar shows a line of light showers from
northwestern into central SD. Temperatures sit in the 50s to mid
60s, with generally light winds.

Little change to the overall pattern is expected through the
week, with zonal to northwest flow aloft hanging around. Ongoing
light precipitation will taper off this evening, and dry
conditions are expected tonight through Friday. Upper ridge
builds over the western CONUS Friday, resulting in warmer
temperatures, with highs generally in the 70s over the weekend.
Next disturbance comes Saturday as a wave rides the northwest flow
through the Dakotas. Current models keep the better forcing in
northwestern SD up into North Dakota. Very limited moisture in the
region, so any precipitation will likely only amount to a trace
or a few hundredths.

Upper ridge continues to dominate the western CONUS through much
of next week, resulting in temperatures staying above normal, with
a few chances for light precipitation as weak shortwaves ride the
northwest flow into the northern plains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 946 PM MDT Thu Oct 1 2026

Light showers will linger over portions of northwest/central South
Dakota through 02/10-12z. Outside of any heavy precipitation
cores, VFR conditions will persist through the TAF period. Gusty
south-southeasterly winds will continue overnight and into
tomorrow, especially across northeastern WY and portions of
western South Dakota where gusts of 25-30KT are expected. Gusty
winds will persist across northeast Wyoming through 02/15z and
will pick up for western South Dakota around 02/14z and last
through 02/20-22z.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JC
DISCUSSION...Dye
AVIATION...Schultz