274
FNUS73 KUNR 051530
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Needles-Event Fire...USWFS
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
930 AM MDT Sat Sep 5 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0900 MDT on September 05.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...Generally southeasterly winds will persist through
the afternoon and into the evening hours with gusts up to 15 to 25
mph possible. Relative humidity will drop as low as 18 percent by
mid-afternoon, while temperatures will top out around 98 degrees.
Smoke dispersal will be very good during the day before becoming
poor overnight. Relative humidity recovery will be good (~70 to 85
percent) overnight into the morning.

There is a chance (~25 to 35 percent) of thunderstorms this
afternoon and evening, starting around 20z for the fire area.
Should storms form, gusty, erratic winds, lightning, and
potentially hail will be the main threats. We will continue to
monitor and will reach out should anything threaten the fire area.

Near-critical fire weather conditions expected Sunday - very hot
(95F), but less dry. Relative humidity will fall to as low as 28
percent by peak heating with breezy southerly (sustained) winds 8
to 12 mph with gusts up to 21 mph.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (20-30 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent). Chance of
                    thunderstorms starting around 20z and
                    lasting into the overnight hours.
Max temperature.....Around 98.
Min humidity........18 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds around 10 mph shifting to the
                    southeast late in the afternoon. Gusts up to 21
                    mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......10100 to 10600 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 15 mph shifting to the southeast
                    around 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

TIME (MDT)      9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........5   6   11  33  33  33  33  44  46
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............78  83  88  94  97  98  98  98  96
RH..............53  45  37  30  25  21  18  18  20
20 FT wind dir..S   SW  SW  SW  S   S   SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind spd..7   7   7   7   7   8   9   10  10
20 FT wind gust.16  16  16  15  15  16  18  20  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.9 1.4 2.3 4.8 8.8 9.1 11  7.2 5.1
Transp wind dir.SW  S   S   SE  SE  SE  S   SE  SE
Transp wind spd.14  13  12  12  13  14  16  20  22

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (50-60 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 65.
Max humidity........84 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds around 15 mph shifting to the
                    south overnight. Gusts up to 22 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......500 to 1000 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South around 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........53  54  53  56  54  47  42  28  28  28  28  30
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............90  86  81  79  77  75  73  72  71  69  66  65
RH..............28  34  42  47  52  58  64  64  66  73  81  84
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..12  12  13  13  12  12  12  12  12  12  10  10
20 FT wind gust.20  18  21  22  21  21  20  18  18  18  17  16
Mix hgt (kft)...3.2 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.SE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
Transp wind spd.23  23  22  21  21  21  21  22  22  21  21  21

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 95.
Min humidity........28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 10 to 15 mph with gusts to around
                    21 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......8400 to 8900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....South 20 to 25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Very good.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........27  30  34  32  26  27  28  28  28  28  31  35
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............66  69  73  77  82  86  89  92  94  94  94  92
RH..............81  73  66  58  49  42  35  31  28  28  28  31
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9   9   9   8   8   8   9   10  12  13
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15  17  16  15  15  15  17  18  20  21
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.9 1.2 1.6 2.5 3.3 4.2 5.8 7.3 8.9 7.3 5.8
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   S   SE  SE  S
Transp wind spd.21  21  21  21  18  17  16  16  16  17  18  21

$$
Forecaster...CS
Requested by...Jade Drause
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2621264.0/UNR
.DELDT 09/05/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jade_drause@fws.gov