266
FNUS73 KUNR 081958
FWSUNR

Spot Forecast for Schenk Rx Unit 4...U.S. Forest Service
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
158 PM MDT Thu Oct 8 2026

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1530 MDT on October 08.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM MDT FRIDAY...

.DISCUSSION...Tonight will see temperatures cool off into the low
50s with mainly lighter, terrain driven winds, especially after
midnight. Overnight humidity recovery will be around 55 to 60%.

Friday and Saturday are the hottest days of the week, and will
have near-critical to critical fire weather conditions. High
temperatures in the 80s coupled with gusty southwest winds lead
to elevated fire weather concerns for Friday and Saturday
afternoon. A Red Flag Warning has been issued for Friday from 11
AM through 8 PM. Saturday is a bit more borderline, but headlines
may be needed as well.

A cold front will then bring much cooler weather for next week,
with chances for showers Sunday into Monday. It will also be
breezy at times next week as a series of disturbances move across
the region.

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (0-10 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 75.
Min humidity........21 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5 to 10 mph with gusts to around
                    12 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......3800 to 4300 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair.

TIME (MDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   4   4
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0
Temp............74  74  71
RH..............21  21  25
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6
20 FT wind gust.11  12  10
Mix hgt (kft)...4.3 3.7 3.1
Transp wind dir.NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.15  14  12

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent).
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........57 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest winds around 10 mph with gusts to
                    around 12 mph shifting to the northeast in the
                    evening, then decreasing to around 5 mph
                    overnight.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......400 to 900 ft agl.
Transport winds.....Northwest around 10 mph shifting to the
                    northeast early in the evening.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........6   10  11  12  13  15  18  23  23  17  18  14
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............68  64  60  58  57  56  55  54  54  54  54  54
RH..............28  34  41  44  45  47  49  52  55  55  55  55
20 FT wind dir..NW  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   7   6   5   5   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.12  10  12  12  10  8   7   7   7   8   8   8
Mix hgt (kft)...0.7 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.NW  N   NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  NE  E
Transp wind spd.10  10  12  12  10  8   7   7   7   7   7   7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny (5-15 percent).
Max temperature.....Around 82.
Min humidity........17 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 5 mph shifting to the
                    southwest 5 to 15 mph with gusts to around 23
                    mph in the late morning and early afternoon,
                    then increasing to around 15 mph with gusts to
                    around 30 mph late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Mixing height.......8900 to 9400 ft agl.
Transport winds.....East around 10 mph shifting to the south early
                    in the morning, then shifting to the southwest
                    15 to 20 mph late in the morning increasing to
                    20 to 25 mph late in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair increasing to excellent late in the
                    afternoon, then decreasing to good late in the
                    afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........7   12  8   1   5   19  11  5   3   4   4   3
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............53  53  56  60  66  70  73  77  80  81  82  80
RH..............57  57  53  47  37  30  26  23  20  18  17  18
20 FT wind dir..E   E   E   E   SW  W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   3   2   5   8   9   10  13  15  15  13
20 FT wind gust.8   8   8   8   10  13  15  18  23  28  30  20
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 0.4 0.6 1.2 1.7 1.9 3.5 6.5 9.4 6.5 3.7
Transp wind dir.E   E   SE  S   S   SW  W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW
Transp wind spd.7   6   6   6   8   12  15  20  23  25  24  20

$$
Forecaster...CS
Requested by...Josh Behlings
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2623128.7/UNR
.DELDT 10/08/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL hayden.hoelscher@usda.gov,jason.rodriguez2@usda.gov,joshua.behlings@usda.gov