324
FXUS65 KVEF 130405
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
905 PM PDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A potent, early-season Pacific system will bring gusty winds and
  precipitation to the region early this week, including the first
  round of wintry precipitation this season. A Winter Storm Watch
  in effect for the Eastern Sierra Monday afternoon through early
  Wednesday.

* Gusty winds are expected Monday into Monday night, with a Wind
  Advisory in effect for the southern Great Basin, eastern Inyo
  County, the western Mojave Desert, and Morongo Basin.

* Well below normal temperatures are expected for much of the
  week, with freezing temperatures across northern and western
  valleys.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Current water vapor imagery and 500 hPa RUC analysis indicates a
deepening trough over the northwestern CONUS, and to the southeast,
subtropical moisture from the remnants of Raymond continues
streaming northeastward across southern Arizona and New Mexico.
Between these two features, cool, dry conditions are the rule across
southern Nevada, southeastern California, and northwestern Arizona,
a welcome reprieve from the active weather of the past few days.

Attention turns to the next system to impact the region, with model
guidance remaining in good agreement regarding the evolution of the
upper pattern. The aforementioned trough will deepen and dive
southward, its trajectory with its core remaining just offshore
allowing for entrainment of substantial Pacific moisture. The
associated IVT plume is progged to translate inland around the base
of the trough, impacting the windward side of the Sierra through
Monday afternoon, with this moisture expected to spill over the
crest onto the eastern slopes Monday late afternoon into Monday
evening. Probabilities of impactful (8-12"+) snowfall in and around
Aspendell remain high (around 70-80%), with total forecast
amounts through late Tuesday night/early Wednesday morning around
14-18". Thus, given snow levels around 7000 feet, the current
Winter Storm Watch still looks good, with 1-2 feet of snow
expected between 7000-9000 feet, and 2-3 feet expected at higher
elevations across the Sierra. Snow is also expected across the
White Mountains, the higher terrain of the southern Great Basin,
and in the highest elevations of the Spring Mountains through
Wednesday as the core of the low moves overhead and the
aforementioned IVT plume is routed across the southern deserts.
However, probabilities for 3-4"+ snowfall remain low in these
areas (around 10-30%). Elsewhere, rain is expected across lower
elevations, though flooding concerns are minimal as locations
expected to see rain from this system are removed from those who
saw substantial rainfall last week.

Of additional concern are gusty winds expected to overspread the
region ahead of and coincident with this system, the first round of
which will arrive by late Monday morning, persisting into Monday
night. There are high to very high (70-90%) probabilities for
locations across the southern Great Basin, eastern Inyo County, the
western Mojave Desert, and Morongo Basin to see Advisory level
winds, with gusts topping out around 40-50mph. These southerly to
southwesterly winds will result in dangerous crosswinds on east-west
oriented roadways, and will likely produce localized blowing dust.

The system driving the unsettled pattern this week will be very
cold, resulting in well below normal temperatures through the
upcoming week. The coolest day looks to be Wednesday, as the core of
the system moves overhead, and with skies clearing across western
areas early Wednesday morning, the first freeze of the season is
looking increasingly likely for Bishop and locations along the Owens
Valley. Ensemble probabilities for subfreezing temperatures continue
increasing across the western Valleys, and thus, trends will be
monitored, with a Freeze Watch likely to be issued in the next 24
hours. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Light
southwesterly winds will continue through tomorrow morning when
winds will start to increase from the south. By late morning/early
afternoon gusty southwesterly winds will begin to impact the
terminal. These gusty southwesterly winds will continue into the
evening hours when wind gusts will drop off. Winds will continue
to favor a southerly to southwesterly direction through the
overnight period. VFR conditions prevail, with increasing mid and
high clouds between 15-25kft tonight through Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Winds across the
region will favor their typical nocturnal directions with
sustained speeds of 12 knots or less. With the exception of the
westerly Mojave Desert where winds will favor a more westerly
component, southerly to southwesterly winds will pick up across
the region late tomorrow morning with gusts around 20 to 35 knots
continuing into the evening hours. While these gusty westerly
winds will continue through the evening hours across the western
Mojave Desert, winds will decrease during the evening hours across
the rest of the area with winds continuing to favor some sort of
southerly direction. Cloud cover will begin to increase overnight
with mid and high clouds between 15- 25kft filtering through the
area through Monday.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Phillipson
AVIATION...Stessman

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