295
FXUS65 KVEF 100830
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1230 AM PST Mon Nov 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry weather and warmer than normal temperatures are expected
  across the region through the middle of the week.

* A trough of low pressure will bring gusty winds, cooler
  temperatures, and increased precipitation chances to the region
  late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Sunday.

Ridging currently sitting over the region will remain in place
through about Wednesday, resulting in dry and low impact weather.
High temperatures through Wednesday will run 8-10 degrees above
normal.

The weather pattern will drastically change the second half of the
week with increasing consensus across models that a deep West Coast
trough will bring cooler temperatures, gusty winds, and increasing
chances for precipitation. Despite high confidence that a trough
will impact the region, details remain low as the system itself is
still 4+ days away. Precipitation should overspread the region
Wednesday night and Thursday as moisture increases on southwest
flow, then continue at times into at least Friday night. Thursday
afternoon and night should have the highest and most widespread
chances as PWATs increase to 150%-200% of normal, however amounts
remain uncertain with a significant spread in QPF between the 10th
and 90th percentile. The best chances for impactful snow will be in
the Sierra above 7000ft where there are high probabilities for
moderate snow impacts on WPC`s Probabilistic WSSI. Will need to
watch how quickly precipitation exits versus snow levels dropping
as well as how much moisture sneaks in from the southwest on a
weak IVT plume, which could result in more snow and some
accumulation in areas like the Spring Mountains and the terrain
of the Southern Great Basin. Currently, Probabilistic WSSI only
highlights chances for minor impacts in these areas outside of the
Sierra. Gusty southwest winds are likely Thursday and Friday as
the pressure gradient increases ahead of the trough axis, with
widespread 50%+ probabilities for impactful wind gusts over 40 MPH
on Thursday, then lingering on Friday in parts of the Western
Mojave Desert into the Colorado River Valley. Finally, a sharp
cool down is expected as the trough moves in- high temperatures 10
to 15 degrees from Thursday to Friday and will remain below
normal through the weekend. With such a dynamic system, will be
interesting to what hi-res models and shorter range ensembles show
which will help fine tune the need for products as well as better
define impacts. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Winds
will be light and diurnal through the TAF period, with light west-
southwesterly winds overnight, light east-northeasterly winds in the
afternoon, and a return of west-southwesterly winds after sunset.
Sustained speeds will generally remain at or below 8 kts. Cannot
rule out an isolated gust between 10 and 15 kts in the afternoon.
SCT-BKN aoa 25 kft increase through the afternoon and evening on
Monday.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwestern Arizona and
southeastern California...For the 06Z Forecast Package... Winds will
generally be light and diurnal through the TAF period with sustained
speeds at or less than 8 kts. The exception will be the Colorado
River Valley, where sustained north winds between 12 and 16 kts will
continue overnight, with gusts between 20 and 25 kts Monday
afternoon. Northerly wind speeds decrease after sunset. SCT-BKN aoa
25 kft spread southward through the forecast area through the day.
&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nickerson
AVIATION...Soulat

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