908
FXUS65 KVEF 180600
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1100 PM PDT Fri Jul 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Abundant moisture will remain over the Desert Southwest into
  next week, with daily rounds of monsoon thunderstorms.

* Seasonably hot temperatures will persist with unusually warm
  overnight lows due to moisture and cloud cover.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
An active stretch of monsoon days is expected as abundant
moisture resides over the Desert Southwest. This is apparent from
the most recent Upper Air soundings from Las Vegas, each showing
precipitable water values exceeding 1.6 inches. The most active
convective days currently appear to be today and Saturday. With
ensembles indicating some slight drying early next week, less
widespread activity can be expected, but the chance for storms
will persist through the end of next week. In fact, medium- range
ensembles indicate a weak inverted trough feature may result in a
period of greater shower and thunderstorm activity mid to late
next week, though confidence in the timing/placement of this
feature is very low. We will continue to monitor trends as the
time draws closer. Regardless, expect thunderstorms to largely be
terrain and outflow driven with little movement owing to very weak
mid-level steering flow. This will result in an increased risk
for localized flash flooding, especially given the high water
content in the atmosphere. Lightning and gusty winds will also
accompany any thunderstorm. Looking into the long range timeframe,
the pattern generally looks to continue favoring a monsoon
pattern with at least a chance for isolated thunderstorms into
next weekend. As it commonly the case, areas of Mohave and Lincoln
counties into southwestern Utah will generally be geographically
preferred for thunderstorms. Be especially mindful if you have any
outdoor activities planned over the next week or so as
thunderstorms will remain in the forecast.

Afternoon high temperatures will generally remain right around
climatological normals. However, given the potential for
increased overnight cloud cover and abundant atmospheric moisture,
the air will struggle to cool down overnight. This will result in
some elevated heat risk potential, especially in the hotter
spots, including the Colorado River Valley and Death Valley.
Remain hydrated and avoid being outdoors during the hottest time
of the afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...A few
isolated thunderstorms will be possible through 08z along the Mormon
Mesa and Peach Spring corridors, but overall convection will
continue to wane. South to southwest winds generally less than 7
knots overnight. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Saturday
afternoon with the best chance remaining over the higher terrain.
Temperatures are expected to exceed 100F from 20Z-03Z with a high
around 101 degrees.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Convection will continue
to decrease with no thunderstorms expected at any of the TAF sites
overnight. Winds will generally be 10 knots or less, except for KDAG
where westerly gusts to around 18 knots are expected overnight. CIGs
around 12k feet at KEED/KIFP will improve after 08z with SCT clouds
overnight. Elsewhere, FEW-SCT clouds around 14-15kft. Thunderstorms
will be possible again Saturday afternoon, especially in Mohave
County. Did include PROB30 for both KEED and KIFP due to the
potential for afternoon thunderstorms.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Austin
AVIATION...Gorelow

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