040
FXUS65 KVEF 170710
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
1210 AM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible in eastern Lincoln
  County early this morning. Otherwise, expect drying conditions
  through the weekend.

* Chances of showers and thunderstorms return early next week;
  temperatures climb back to above-normal midweek.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Wednesday.

Many thunderstorms produced moderate-to-heavy rainfall yesterday,
with several gauges measuring between 1.50 and 2.00 inches of
rainfall in under 2 hours - particularly across southern Mohave
County. CAMs are persistent in isolated convection returning to
eastern Lincoln County early this morning between 3 to 6 AM.
Though shear remains low in this region, PWATs remain around 1.00
inches with over 1200 J/kg of SBCAPE. As a result, while storms
will likely remain sub-severe, they will have the potential to
create lightning and light-to-moderate rainfall. Otherwise, a
closed area of low pressure will continue to traverse eastward
across the southern Great Basin today, which will once again
elevate south-southwesterly winds in our forecast area. This
closed low will usher dry air into the region, allowing PWATs to
drop back below 0.50 inches. Temperatures will remain near-normal
through the weekend.

Early next week, ensemble means indicate a resurgence of PWATs in
excess of 1.00 inches, which will coincide with the approach of a
closed area of low pressure pushing into the central California
Coast from the eastern Pacific Ocean. This low will provide the
instability necessary to bring a return of PoPs to the region,
with best chances across the Mojave Desert. Mid-week, ridging
returns to the Desert Southwest, which will allow temperatures to
climb back to above-normal.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...
Evening thunderstorm activity will gradually wane after 06Z with
just a few storms remaining over Lincoln and northern Mohave
counties affecting the Mormon Mesa corridor overnight. Otherwise,
look for FEW clouds around 10kft. Southeast winds around 10-15
knots with a few gusts to around 20 knots will become south to
southwest overnight and decrease to around 10 knots overnight.
Similar wind pattern expected tomorrow with light southeast winds
during the morning, increasing after 16z, then shifting to the
south to southwest after 19Z with speeds 15-25 knots. A few storms
are possible over northern Mohave County in the afternoon, but
impacts are not likely.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Gusty south to
southwest winds are expected over most TAF sites overnight with
gusts approaching 25 knots. Winds at KDAG will be more westerly
with gusts around 25 knots. Skies will generally be clear for KBIH
and KDAG with FEW clouds at 10kft for the Las Vegas Valley TAF
sites along with KEED and KIFP. Similar wind conditions are
expected Thursday with gusty southwest to west winds after 19Z. A
few storms are possible over Mohave County, but are not expected
to impact any TAF site.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Soulat
AVIATION...Gorelow

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