452
FXUS65 KVEF 300320
AFDVEF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Las Vegas NV
730 PM PST Sat Nov 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Cooling temperatures, periods of increased north winds, and
  limited precipitation chances stick around through next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...through Friday.

The northwesterly flow pattern continues for the foreseeable future,
allowing multiple systems to drop in from the PacNW. As each one
passes by, expect a slight decrease in temperatures and an uptick in
northerly breezes. The next system arrives Sunday, producing the
strongest winds in the lower Colorado River Valley on Monday. Latest
guidance suggests a 70% chance of 30-40 mph gusts, with locally
stronger gusts possible in the Laughlin/Bullhead City area due to
terrain enhancement. Elsewhere, gusts generally 10-25 mph are
forecast. Precipitation chances are quite marginal with this system
(less than 20%) and are confined to northern Lincoln and Mohave
counties. As the atmosphere briefly settles down Monday night into
Tuesday, temperatures drop to their lowest point in the forecast
period. The first freeze of the season is likely (70%) in
Tecopa/Shoshone and possible (30%) in Kingman and the Mojave
Preserve. Another trough drops in Tuesday night, though the exact
track remains uncertain. As expected, ensemble guidance seems to be
trending more towards the "inside slider" solution, resulting in
lower precipitation chances and stronger north winds in the latest
NBM. PoPs Tuesday night through Thursday remain fairly widespread,
but have now dropped below 20% in most locations. Regardless, any
precipitation that does fall is likely to be light and not impactful.
In terms of winds, northerly breeze magnitude for Wednesday-
Thursday looks similar to Monday`s forecast, though this may
increase if models come into better agreement on an "inside
slider" solution.

&&

.AVIATION...For Harry Reid...For the 06Z Forecast Package...No
major changes from previous package thinking. Winds remain light and
generally follow typical, daily patterns throughout the period.
Chance of 10+ knots on Sunday is around 30%. Any winds over 10 knots
during this time will be from the north or northeast. VFR conditions
with periods of widespread clouds at or above 15kft.

For the rest of southern Nevada, northwest Arizona and southeast
California...For the 06Z Forecast Package...Generally light and
diurnal wind patterns expected tonight and Sunday morning. By Sunday
afternoon, breezes begin to increase. Winds across the southern
Mojave Desert range from southerly to westerly with gusts 15-25
knots. Meanwhile, northerly winds of 15-25 knots move into the
southern Great Basin. VFR conditions with periods of widespread
clouds at or above 15kft.

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...Spotters are encouraged to report
any significant weather or impacts according to standard operating
procedures.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Woods


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