289
FXUS63 KARX 131040
AFDARX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service La Crosse WI
540 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Periodic showers and storm will remain in the forecast from
  today into Thursday. At this time, the severe weather threat
  looks to be low due to weak 0-3 and 0-6 km shear and skinny
  CAPES aloft.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 302 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

Today and Tonight

Dry easterly winds have lowered dew points into the mid- and
upper 40s across central, west-central and southwest Wisconsin
early this morning. This drier air will continue to spread west
into southeast Minnesota and northeast Iowa this morning. As a
result, showers and storms will remain primarily north of
Interstate 90 and closer to Interstate 35 this morning. This is
due to higher dew points in these areas.

As a shortwave moves east into western Wisconsin this afternoon,
the dew points south of Interstate 94 will climb into the lower
and mid 60s. In addition to this shortwave, there will be
another shortwave trough move northeast through the Mid
Mississippi River into the Ohio and Tennessee River Valleys.
These will result in scattered showers and storms this afternoon
and evening. Soundings continue to show weak shear and skinny
CAPES, so the severe weather threat continues looks to be low
this afternoon and evening.

Saturday Afternoon and Evening

While the 500 mb ridge builds northeast into the region, there
will be limited capping ahead of yet another shortwave trough.
This will result in another round of scattered showers and
storms. Soundings continue to show weak shear and skinny CAPES,
so the severe weather threat looks to be a low threat.

Sunday through Tuesday

There will be periodic shortwave troughs moving along the north
and northeast periphery of a longwave ridge. This will bring
periodic showers and storms to the region. It currently looks
like the 0-3 and 0-6 km shear will be on the weak side.
However, if there happens to be a stronger mid-level jet aloft,
this could potentially result in the potential for some severe
weather.

Wednesday through Thursday

This looks to be a better chance of showers and storms as a
longwave trough moves through the region. Severe weather chances
remain uncertain do to questions on instability.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 540 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

A decaying band of showers and embedded storms will continue to
weaken across southeast MN this morning as MVFR cigs envelope much
of the area. Probabilities in the 13.06z HREF are high (50-80%) for
MVFR reductions through 17-19z before rapidly improving to low-VFR
for the afternoon and evening hours. Cannot rule out a stray shower
or two later this afternoon and into the evening. However,
confidence was too low (10-25%) at either TAF site to include a
prob30 mention for -shra. Winds will remain from the east
to southeast throughout the TAF period at around 5-10 kts.

&&

.ARX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Boyne
AVIATION...Naylor