346
FXUS61 KBUF 032329
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
729 PM EDT Wed Jun 3 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers return for the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers return for the weekend.

A weak sfc low will track near or just north of the region late
Friday through Sunday. A weak and slow moving cold front will cross
the area during the weekend, prompting showers and thunderstorms to
develop. Ahead of the above features, increasing southerly flow will
advect moisture into the region through the day Friday and into the
weekend. PWat values exceeding 1.50 inches will provide a moist
atmosphere, and combined with the forcing from the weak cold front
and a shortwave trough crossing the area, showers with thunderstorms
are expected. Some of the showers/storms will have the potential for
heavy downpours at times. Showers may become better organized and
steady for a period of time Saturday as a weak secondary sfc low
tracks across the area along the slow moving cold frontal boundary.
A third to two thirds of an inch of rainfall is expected, but some
uncertainty remains with the event still a few days out and the
timing of the second weak sfc low. Higher rainfall amounts also
expected within areas of heavier downpours from thunderstorms. While
there is a `Marginal Risk` for excessive runoff from WPC for
Saturday, with recent antecedent conditions, rainfall for the
weekend is not expected to cause flooding issues.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will provide VFR across the entire region tonight
through Thursday. Localized lake breeze circulations may at times
produce gusts up to 20 knots again tomorrow afternoon.


Outlook...

Friday...VFR.

Friday night...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers (MVFR).

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR, with IFR in showers and
thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible.

Monday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the region through the rest of the work week will
result in weak winds and lower wave heights. Winds will mostly out
of the southwest and at or under 10 knots through Friday morning.
Winds increase some on Friday afternoon for Lake Ontario, but are
expected to remain below SCA levels.

Wind will increase for the weekend, closer to SCA levels as a weak
cold front and weak area of low pressure approach and cross the
lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SW
AVIATION...AR/JM
MARINE...SW