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000
FXUS61 KBUF 231102
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
702 AM EDT Mon May 23 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast
supporting mainly dry weather through at least mid week. More in the
way of unsettled weather can then be expected as a cold front
crosses the region bringing a round of showers and storms toward the
latter part of the work week. A few showers may try to linger into
Saturday with otherwise improving conditions expected for the
remainder of the Memorial Day Weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Sprawling high pressure will build across southern Ontario and the
eastern Great Lakes today. While this will provide fair dry weather,
some low level clouds may linger through the morning before drier
air eventually wins out. Some mid and upper level clouds will also
continue to stream by overhead through the day. Otherwise, a cool
northerly flow will mean a much cooler day on tap with most areas
only forecast to climb into the lower 60s, with some areas over the
higher terrain not getting out of the upper 50s. Some 5-10 degrees
below average for this time of the year.

High pressure will remain in control as it moves east into northern
New England tonight into Tuesday, maintaining a mainly dry forecast
for our area. Only fly in the ointment is the possibility for a weak
inverted surface trough to develop Tuesday afternoon on the
southwestern periphery of the high. Some increase in moisture
combined with a weak mid level shortwave forecast to cross southern
NY/northern PA may provide just enough forcing to produce a few
sprinkles or very light showers toward the western Southern Tier
Tuesday afternoon. Otherwise, following another cool night with lows
in the 40s, a strengthening southerly return flow on the western
side of the high will advect some warmer air back north across our
region boosting highs on Tuesday back up into the upper 60s and low
70s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
While the overall pattern will remain progressive during this
period...an amplifying ridge over the Great Lakes will drag its feet
in moving off the coast. The result will be a slower progression of
unsettled weather that will eventually be supported by a closed
southern stream mid level storm system. That will allow for fair
weather to extend a little deeper into the work week with a day to
day increase in temperatures and humidity. The details...

High pressure centered over the Canadian maritimes will stretch back
across our forecast area Tuesday night...while a supporting mid
level ridge will amplify over the Upper Great Lakes. While
confidence is high that this will maintain fair dry weather over our
region...the potential `fly in the ointment` will be an elevated
warm front that will press northward across the western counties.
This...in tandem with an influx of low level Atlantic moisture in
the return flow around the aforementioned sfc high...will result in
an increase in cloud cover and possibly an isolated shower. It will
also be 5-10 deg F milder than previous nights with mins Tuesday
night generally in the 50s.

The axis of the amplifying ridge will cross our forecast area on
Wednesday...then will move across New England Wednesday night. While
this will continue to promote fair weather over our region...a few
showers will be possible later Wednesday night. Its worth noting
that pops have been SIGNIFICANTLY lowered during this 24 hour
period...including showers being removed from Wednesdays wording.

The ridge axis will push off the east coast on Thursday...while a
southern stream closed low over Missouri will start to open up and
move across the mid western states. This will deepen the southerly
flow over our region...further opening the door for humid...more
unstable air to work its way into our region. While it still looks
as if the majority of the day will feature fair weather...the
environment will be more favorable for showers and thunderstorms.
Confidence is relatively low as to the areal coverage of any
convection...but higher pops will be favored west of the Finger
Lakes.

Would not be surprised to see the trend of lowering pops extent
through Wednesday night into Thursday...as the main stream
deterministic guidance packages (ECMWF, CMCnh) are already notably
`drier` than previous runs.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
This period will lead into the much anticipated Memorial Day
weekend...which for many is the official start to the summer season.
Fortunately...the most unsettled weather during this time frame will
come BEFORE the weekend.

A split flow over the Upper Mississippi valley Thursday evening will
contain a robust shortwave over western Ontario with an opening
southern stream closed low over Illinois. Later Thursday night and
Friday...guidance is suggesting a phasing of the two systems with a
negatively tilted trough and subsequent cold frontal passage over
our region. This will result in widespread showers and possibly some
thunderstorms. Pops have been raised to categorical for at least
Thursday night with high chc to likely pops now in play for Friday.

Showers will taper off later Friday and Friday night...as the
negatively tilted trough lifts out across New England and the Saint
Lawrence valley.

Relatively flat ridging is then forecast to build across the region
for Saturday and Sunday. While this scenario is usually fair weather
friendly...there could be a warm frontal boundary nearby that could
present the risk for some showers. At this point...low confidence is
in place for fair weather to prevail...but its advisable to keep
abreast for updated forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions on tap through the TAF period. Exception being
across the interior Southern Tier (KJHW) where some scattered
MVFR/IFR CIGS/VSBY will linger into mid morning. There will also be
some lower end VFR decks found across the Niagara Frontier and east
of Lake Ontario (KART) through this morning. Otherwise some mid and
upper level decks will traverse the region through the entire TAF
period. Winds will remain light.

Outlook...

Tonight and Tuesday...Mainly VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers.
Thursday...MVFR to VFR. Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Friday...MVFR to VFR. Chance of showers.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will remain below Small Craft Criteria through at
least mid week as high pressure resides across the Great Lakes.
Conditions will become more unsettled with offshore winds freshening
resulting in somewhat more choppy waters for the second half of the
week, however conditions still not expected to reach small craft
headline criteria.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM
SHORT TERM...RSH
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM