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000
FXUS61 KBUF 280651
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
251 AM EDT Sun May 28 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will remain firmly in place across the Great Lakes
through the rest of the long holiday weekend. This will allow for
continued fair dry weather and summerlike warmth...with daytime
highs reaching the lower to mid 80s both today and Monday. Fair dry
weather is then expected to continue through most if not all of the
upcoming week...while temperatures will continue to average well
above normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Deep layer-ridging will dominate our weather through this period and
well beyond...resulting in continued fair...dry...and quiet weather.
Skies will again be mostly sunny to mainly clear...with just some
thin high cirrus attendant to the southeastern US closed low working
across western New York today into this evening...and then some
spotty mid and high clouds pushing across the North Country tonight
as a weak backdoor cold front drops across eastern New York and New
England.

Given 850 mb temps climbing a few degrees higher to +14C/+15C and
the dry ground conditions...today`s highs should once again have no
trouble exceeding guidance...with most locations seeing readings
peak in the lower to mid 80s. The only exceptions to this will be
across the highest terrain...and also near the lakeshores where the
light northerly synoptic flow will again allow solenoidal lake
breeze circulations to develop. Excellent conditions for radiational
cooling will then allow lows to dip back into the mid 40s to lower
50s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Fair weather continuing as the longwave rex block holds. Warming
trend will press on with inland areas reaching the lower to mid 80s
both Monday and Tuesday. Northeast winds keeping the south shore of
Lake Ontario quite a bit cooler.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The mid-level ridge will begin to break down and then reposition to
our west at the end of this time frame. This will allow for a weak
front to drop south out of Canada by Friday, with a chance of a few
showers (low end chance, 30% or less). Otherwise...summer like
conditions is expected as H850T warm to +15C/+17C. This will support
highs well into the 80s for many locations both Wednesday and
Thursday, then trending cooler Friday with the cold front into the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Strong high pressure will remain parked across our region with
widespread dry/VFR conditions persisting throughout the TAF period
and well beyond. Winds will be light...with local lake breeze
circulations developing again today and resulting in winds locally
turning onshore at 10 knots or less.

Outlook...

Monday through Thursday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Expansive high pressure over the Great Lakes will remain in place
through the rest of the long holiday weekend and well beyond. This
will guarantee fair dry weather along with light to modest winds and
minimal waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JJR/RSH
NEAR TERM...JJR
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JJR
MARINE...JJR