Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 180236

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1036 PM EDT Sat Mar 17 2018

High pressure centered over the Great Lakes will provide dry weather
tonight. A weak cold front will push through the area Sunday. High
pressure will then build back into the region for Monday through
much of next week with an extended period of dry weather expected.
Temperatures will remain below normal through next week.


Tonight, a broad region of high pressure extending from the northern
Plains through the Great Lakes will keep fair, but cold weather
across the area. Clear skies across the region this evening will be
encroached upon by a mid level thin deck of clouds that is
currently NW of Lake Ontario. A slackening gradient will bring
another round of efficient radiational cooling. This will allow
lows to drop back into the teens in most areas away from the
immediate lakeshores, with single digits east of Lake Ontario.
The typically colder spots may drop to near zero across the Tug
Hill region.

Weak cold front currently stalled over the northern Great Lakes will
begin to ease its way southward through the lower Great Lakes during
the day Sunday. Moisture will be severely lacking with this system
which will lead to just patchy clouds with the frontal passage.
The combination of weak low level warm advection ahead of the front
and mid March surface heating should boost high temperatures into
the mid 30 to around 40 for most places, but likely remaining just
below freezing across portions of the North Country.


High pressure will cross the central Canadian Provinces and approach
the eastern Great Lakes Sunday night. Post-frontal conditions will
be present across the eastern Great Lakes as a cold front over
Central PA moves south into the Northern Mid-Atlantic region. Mostly
dry conditions are expected however cannot rule out some flurries
mainly from the Northern Finger Lakes eastward across the North
Country behind the subtle frontal passage.

High pressure will be in control to start the work week. Northerly
winds will keep the region cool with temperatures below normal. Low
pressure will continue to deepen across the Mississippi and
Tennessee Valleys Monday. The forecast trend continues to keep this
system to the south resulting in a coastal low off the Mid-Atlantic
coast Tuesday, the first day of Spring. Most deterministic forecast
models have the forecast area mainly dry however ensemble members
keep the potential for snow across the region with the best chance
across the Southern Tier. Kept a low chance of snow showers across
the Southern Tier while keeping areas further north dry Tuesday.
Below normal temperatures expected with highs in the 30s and lows in
the teens and 20s Monday-Tuesday night.


Model consensus maintains a dry pattern throughout the period.
High pressure will ridge from Canada into the region, with a
potential coastal low expected to track well to our south and
east on Wednesday. Temperatures will remain below normal during
the period, with forecast highs gradually warming from the lower
to mid 30s on Wednesday to around 40 by Saturday. Low temperatures
will average in the teens to mid 20s, but will vary depending
on when conditions are most favorable for radiational cooling.


For the 00Z TAFS VFR flight conditions are found, and these
conditions shall persist through the TAF cycle, with light winds.

Sunday evening through Thursday...Mainly VFR.



High pressure will build slowly east and closer to the region
tonight, with winds and waves remaining below small craft
thresholds through the weekend and into the beginning of next





LONG TERM...Apffel
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