Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241118

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
718 AM EDT Sat Mar 24 2018

Expansive high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose south
across our region this weekend. This large surface high will supply
our region with fair dry weather through at least Monday night.
Temperatures will remain below normal this weekend. A warm front
will move northeast across the Great Lakes, bringing a warm-up, but
also the chance for rain showers beginning Tuesday.


IR satellite imagery showing clear skies across the region early
this morning, with some thin/high cirrus just upstream across
central Lake Erie and northern Ohio. The clear skies will continue
through the morning hours.

Confluent upper level pattern will remain positioned over the region
today, between upper low pressure re-organizing over the New
England region and a rather amplified upper ridge extending
through the upper midwest/western Great Lakes. An expansive area
of canadian surface high pressure will continue to nose
southward into the region.

The only weather impacts seen today will be some diurnally
driven strato cu and a veil of cirrus approaching from the west.
Therefore, expect a partly to mostly sunny day, but still
remaining cooler than normal with most high temperatures in the
lower to mid 30s.

Tonight, the large Canadian high to our north will remain in
firm control of our weather. Expect mainly clear skies with some
cirrus or patchy mid cloud overhead with most overnight lows in
the teens to lower 20s.


An upper level ridge will move over the Great Lakes Sunday while
high pressure tracks across the Province of Quebec. Northeasterly
winds will continue to bring below normal temperatures to the
eastern Great Lakes under mostly sunny conditions. Temperatures in
the 30s are expected Sunday.

The cold airmass will finally move towards the Canadian Maritimes
for the start of the work week. Temperatures will rise into the 40s
Monday as winds become southeasterly across the region. High
pressure will become stationary and stretch from the Canadian
Maritimes/New England southwest to the Mid-Atlantic region. Dry
conditions will persist Monday and Monday night as low pressure
develops across the Central Plains. A warm front will move into
Western NY Tuesday and clouds and showers will increase from west to
east as a 30-40kt LLJ approaches the Great Lakes. Rain showers will
likely spread eastward and will reach the North Country Tuesday


A broad upper level trough is forecast to move into the central
CONUS while an upper level ridge moves off the southeast U.S. coast.
The trough will bring a period of active weather for mid-late week
across the Great Lakes region. Rain showers will start the long term
as a cold front crosses the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday-Wednesday
night. Multiple embedded shortwave troughs will bring continued
chances for rain showers through Friday.

Temperatures through Thursday are expected to remain 5-10 degrees
above normal. The falling heights/possibility for the frontal zone
pushing to our east, should bring in cooler air for Friday with
temps closer to normal in the 40s. Overnight temps through this
period should generally remain above freezing leading to rain
showers for a p-type. Wednesday and Thursday areas immediately east
and northeast of the Great Lakes will likely be cooler vs. inland
areas owing to southwest winds over the cold lake waters.


Satellite imagery showing clear skies across the region early this
morning, and this will continue through the morning hours with a
ridge of high pressure in place.

High pressure centered over Hudson Bay will extend south across our
region today. VFR conditions are expected through the period.
Northerly flow may develop some scattered clouds south of Lake
Ontario today and higher terrain, but cloud bases should remain
in the VFR range.


Tonight through Tuesday...VFR.
Wednesday...Mainly VFR with some rain showers likely.


Strong high pressure centered over Hudson Bay will nose south across
the region this weekend. The resulting northerly gradient will be
strong enough to generate some choppy conditions for the Lake
Ontario nearshore waters west of Mexico Bay today, but waves
should remain below small craft criteria.

The flow will strengthen a bit tonight and Sunday with small
craft conditions developing for a time later tonight through
Sunday morning along the Lake Ontario nearshores from Sodus to
the Niagara River.

Otherwise, winds and waves are expected to remain below advisory
levels into Monday.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from midnight tonight to 10 AM EDT Sunday
         for LOZ042>044.



NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/TMA
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