Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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000
FXUS61 KBUF 270757
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
357 AM EDT Wed May 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect warm and humid conditions through late week. Just a few
showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon, mostly
along lake breeze boundaries south and east of Lake Ontario, as well
as the higher terrain across the Tug Hill and western Dacks. A
period of more widespread showers and thunderstorms will occur later
this week as a warm front moves through on Thursday, followed by a
cold front on Friday. Strong Canadian high pressure will then build
across the region in the wake of the cold front, providing mainly
dry and refreshingly cooler weather for the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Just some patches of high thin cirrus clouds passing south to north
across western NY through the remainder of the overnight. Otherwise,
warm and sultry conditions on tap with lows bottoming out in the mid
and upper 60s by daybreak as high pressure remains in control.

For today, indications are there will be a minimum in showers and
thunderstorm coverage. Greatest potential would be over the northern
Niagara Frontier to the west of Rochester and also over the Eastern
Lake Ontario region. As heights slightly relax compared to yesterday
and temps aloft come down slightly, high temps today should be a few
degrees lower in the middle to upper 80s instead of upper 80s to
around 90F.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A surge of tropical moisture associated with the approach of a
low from the Carolinas will bring increasing chances for
showers/scattered storms Thursday.

A few showers/isolated storms possible Thursday night as a warm and
humid airmass remains in place.

The pattern becomes more progressive Friday and Friday night as a
potent shortwave trough slides southeast through the Great Lakes,
forcing a cold front across the region. This will bring a period of
showers and storms. Showers will linger into Friday night, but by
late evening most areas will be drying out behind the cold
frontal passage.

Secondary cold front pushes through the region by Saturday morning.
This will usher in the real push of much cooler and much drier air
across the region. Any lingering light rain showers across eastern
areas Saturday morning with be few and far between and will taper
off from west to east through the early afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
...Below Normal Temperatures Through the Period...

An expansive Canadian sfc high will provide us with fair cool
weather through Monday. A complex frontal system will offer the
potential for some showers on Tuesday. Warmer weather will be
guaranteed for the remainder of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR conditions through the TAF period with only a minimal risk for a
few showers or few thunderstorms for the counties lining the south
shore of Lake Ontario, as well as across the Eastern Lake Ontario
region inland from the lakeshores this afternoon. KROC has the best
chance of being impacted, with nothing worse than low VFR CIGS
during this time. An isolated heavier shower could briefly reduce
VSBY to MVFR as well. Otherwise, outside of any diurnally driven
lower clouds during heat of the day, just a general increase in mid
and upper level cloud decks can be expected through this afternoon
and evening.

Outlook...

Thursday...VFR to MVFR with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
Friday...Showers and thunderstorms likely.
Saturday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak pressure gradient will remain in place across the lower Great
Lakes through Thursday with light winds and minimal wave action. The
weak gradient will allow for onshore breezes to develop during the
afternoon hours. Southwest winds will freshen Friday then shift to
the northwest into Saturday as a cold front crosses the region.

The light winds and a humid airmass will result in areas of dense
fog on Lake Ontario at times through late this week. The risk of fog
will not diminish until later Friday into Saturday as less humid air
arrives.

&&

.CLIMATE...
A very warm airmass will remain in place across the region
through today. Below are the record highs and record warm
minimum temperatures for today, the 27th of May. Since we are
now in Eastern Daylight Time (EDT), the climatic day runs from 1
AM EDT to 1 AM EDT.

Wednesday May 27th Record Highs

Buffalo.....89F 1978
Rochester...92F 1978
Watertown...87F 1960

Wednesday May 27th Record Warm Minimum

Buffalo.....69F 1991
Rochester...70F 1918
Watertown...67F 1991

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JM
NEAR TERM...JM/RSH
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...RSH
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JLA
CLIMATE...Apffel/JM/Thomas


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