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000
FXUS61 KBUF 221053
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
653 AM EDT Tue May 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and a few thunderstorms will pass across the region through
this evening before drier air settles across the region tonight.
Surface high pressure will bring a period of dry weather Wednesday
through Friday. Afternoon high temperatures in the 70s midweek will
steadily increase to the lower 80s for the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A surface warm front lies just to the south of the region this
morning, with now mainly just rain showers now clustering near the
Genesee Valley and Finger Lakes region. This activity will weaken
some over the next few hours with the loss in strength of the low
level jet, and ridge of higher PWATS exiting the forecast area.

An upper level shortwave will ripple across the Central Great Lakes
today, with broad scale synoptic lift ahead of the feature across
the Eastern Great Lakes. This lift in conjunction with lake breeze
boundaries, and 500 to 750 J/KG of MUCAPE will likely generate
additional showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Instability is
greatest south of Lake Ontario, and here is where we will place
thunderstorm chances. Additionally lake breeze convergence across
the northern Niagara Frontier may generate a few showers this late
afternoon, with activity expanding and drifting east and
southeastward. Overall precipitation this morning and afternoon will
range from a quarter to three quarters of an inch...with locally
higher amounts in thunderstorms.

Tonight the axis of the upper level shortwave will pass through the
Eastern Great Lakes, with showers and any lingering thunderstorms
ending from NW to SE across the region. There will remain higher
dewpoints tonight, and as we partially clear and cool...there will
likely be patches of fog forming through the night.

High temperatures today will reach the upper 60s to mid 70s. Tonight
will cool back into the lower 50s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure and a stable upper-level northwest flow will lead to a
quiet and dry period of weather Wednesday and Thursday, as the upper
ridge axis remains anchored over the upper Midwest and western Great
Lakes. Mainly clear skies are expected during this period.
Temperatures will experience a day to day warming trend with highs
Wednesday mainly in the lower to mid 70s, and in the mid to upper
70s by Thursday.

The high will slide off to the east Thursday night and Friday with a
southwesterly flow strengthening in between the departing high and
an area of low pressure approaching the upper Great Lakes. This will
force warmer and more humid air into our forecast area. Mid-summer
warmth is expected on Friday with high temperatures mainly from 80
to 85F, although could see some upper 80s across interior sections.
Fair weather is expected to continue Friday, before some northern
stream energy helps drive the low pressure system a bit closer
Friday night with some shower activity possible for the North
Country.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The forecast remains quite uncertain for next weekend into early
next week with significant model differences and run to run flips in
models. Abundant tropical moisture will continue to stream into the
Southeast States through the period, but how much of that moisture
makes it all the way north into the eastern Great Lakes remains in
question. The latest 12Z GFS brings a rather strong backdoor cold
front south across our region Saturday night, with a seasonably
strong and dry high pressure building into New England which would
keep us dry Sunday through Monday. This is a major change from the
past few runs of the GFS, which kept any frontal boundary well north
of our region.

The 12Z ECMWF is much more consistent with previous ECMWF runs, and
the previous GFS runs in keeping any drier air well north of our
region through early next week. This solution is the model of
choice, and will keep our area warm and rather muggy Saturday
through Monday. Expect highs in the lower 80s away from lake
influences and lows in the lower 60s through the period. There will
be a chance of a few showers and thunderstorms each day, but forcing
appears weak so expect the showers to remain scattered in nature
with rain free time each day as well. The deepest of the tropical
moisture and stronger forcing looks to remain well south of our area
through Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
For the 12Z TAFS now mainly showers are clustered around the Genesee
Valley and Finger Lakes region. Much of this activity will fall
through the next 3 hours, before weakening and eventually organizing
more on lake breeze and lingering convective boundaries across the
region midday. Some IFR ceilings are possible across portions of WNY
early this morning. These ceilings will improve by early afternoon
to MVFR as the center of deeper moisture shifts eastward.

A weak cold front will drop south across the region tonight, with
precipitation ending. Though TAF sites tonight will likely be
precipitation free, there will be likely fog around the region as
the true surge of cooler and drier air will not arrive till
Wednesday.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday...VFR.
Saturday...chance of showers with some MVFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Easterly winds on Lake Ontario this morning will build waves 2 to 3
feet on the western waters. Winds will quickly shift to westerly,
first on Lake Erie and later on Lake Ontario...with speeds generally
remaining 15 knots or less. Surface high pressure will near the
region Wednesday, passing over the Eastern Great Lakes Thursday,
before shifting towards the Southeast states on Friday. This will
maintain lighter winds and minimal waves on the lakes.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Thomas
NEAR TERM...Thomas
SHORT TERM...TMA
LONG TERM...Hitchcock
AVIATION...Thomas
MARINE...Thomas