558
FXUS61 KBUF 091839
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
239 PM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Increasing heat and humidity this week. Heat indices could reach
the mid 90s Thursday and Friday.

2) Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected through Friday
evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Increasing heat and humidity this week. Heat indices
could reach the mid 90s Thursday and Friday.

A mid-level ridge axis is centered overhead today. Mostly sunny
skies and warm air advection are sending temperatures well above
normal. High temperatures are expected to reach the mid to upper 80s
today, with lower temperatures near the lakeshores. Cloud cover and
increasing chances for precipitation will keep conditions mild
overnight with low temperatures in the 60s. Slightly cooler
conditions are expected Wednesday as a westerly flow builds into
western NY. Clouds and precipitation will keep conditions across the
eastern Lake Ontario region cooler as well. Westerly flow will
increase with wind gusts 20-25 mph across far western NY.

Increasing humidity is expected Thursday through Friday as another
ridge builds into the region. Mean 850mb temperatures will climb
near +18C and the combination of heat and humidity will support heat
index values in the low to mid 90s. Heat headlines are possible for
some locations during this time period, but confidence is lower with
the potential for clouds and scattered convection.

Cooler and more comfortable weather are expected across the region
behind a cold front this weekend.

KEY MESSAGE 2...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
through Friday evening.

Water vapor imagery shows a shortwave trough moving across the
central Great Lakes region this afternoon. A plume of moisture will
continue to spread across the eastern Great Lakes region through
tonight. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms have moved into
far western NY this afternoon. Additional development is expected to
occur further east, however dry weather will likely continue east of
Lake Ontario today.

An anomalously moist airmass will move into the region tonight.
Showers and thunderstorms will expand in coverage across the region,
with heavy downpours as the primary impact through Wednesday
morning. Due to dry antecendant conditions, the flood risk is low
tonight. Coverage will decrease form west to east Wednesday, as
subsidence and dryer air builds into western NY. A westerly flow
will also stabilize areas east of Lake Erie. Showers and a few
thunderstorms may form along the convergence of lake breezes south
of Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon. Profiles indicated an uptick in
shear with an isolated risk of strong/severe storms, mainly across
the Finger Lakes and east of Lake Ontario Wednesday afternoon. Any
heavy showers or thunderstorms will produce heavy rain. There is a
non-zero threat of localized flooding if training storms
materialize.

A trough will deepen across the Great Lakes region Friday. A warm,
moist airmass will reside ahead of an approaching strong cold front.
The combination of an increasing wind field and a unstable airmass
will support the potential for strong thunderstorms across the
region. Another risk from any heavy showers or thunderstorms will be
heavy rain, as PWAT values are expected to exceed 1.5", which is
above the 90th percentile for this time of year. Drier air is
expected to move into the region for the start of the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR this afternoon through this evening with thickening and
lowering mid level decks, although some brief MVFR conditions will
be possible in scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms that develop
across western NY later this afternoon through the early evening
hours ahead of a warm front slowly approaching from the west.

The warm front will slowly trudge east across the area tonight
bringing deteriorating flight conditions. Mainly VFR flight
conditions later this evening will deteriorate to widespread
MVFR/IFR (LIFR interior Southern Tier) CIGS from west to east
through the second half of tonight, with the worst conditions
expected across the western NY terminals. An uptick in shower and
isolated thunderstorm activity can also be expected with brief
periods of MVFR/IFR within any heavier showers/storms.

Widespread IFR/MVFR CIGS will remain in place through midday
Wednesday, while scattered showers and storms persist as a mid level
trough encroaches from the west. As the mid level trough starts to
exit the area Wednesday afternoon, so will the more widespread
shower and thunderstorm activity across western NY, thus improvement
back to VFR is expected from KROC westward through the second half
of Wednesday. MVFR is expected to linger east of Lake Ontario
through the end of the day.

Outlook...

Wednesday night through Friday...Mainly VFR with a chance of showers
and thunderstorms. Localized lower flight CATs within any heavier
showers or storms. Also, lower CIGS possible during the overnights
(Wednesday night and Thursday night) across the higher terrain.

Saturday...Mainly VFR.

Sunday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure off the Delmarva will maintain light winds this
afternoon with local lake breeze circulations developing.

Southerly winds will slowly increase through tonight as pressure
gradient tightens some between exiting high pressure to the east and
weak low pressure to the west moving northeast through the central
Great Lakes. Pressure gradient tightens a bit more Wednesday with
winds veering southwest and increasing to 10-15 knots. Expect some
light chop with waves two feet or less.

Expect light to moderate west to southwest breezes prevailing
Wednesday night through this weekend, which may support marginal SCA
conditions at times, especially during the daylight hours.

The passage of several waves of low pressure will generate a few
thunderstorms over the lakes at times through the end of the work
week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...HSK
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...JM