Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY

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FXUS61 KBUF 241332

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
932 AM EDT Sat Oct 24 2020

A strong cold front moved through the area last night, ushering in a
dramatically cooler airmass. Temperatures today will be over 30
degrees cooler than yesterday. A few lake effect rain showers will
continue through early afternoon southeast of the lakes. An area of
high pressure will then move into the region with dry and much
cooler weather lasting through the end of the weekend.


Radar imagery showing the last of the post-frontal showers exiting
Lewis County. Cold air advection will bring 850mb temperatures to 0
to +2C today. This is supporting some limited lake response,
although a rapidly drying airmass will keep the lake response muted.
Southeast of Lake Ontario, expect scattered light showers to last
through midday across the higher terrain from Southern Erie and
Wyoming counties southward. Off Lake Ontario, showers will continue
east of the lake, and also along the south shore from eastern
Niagara County eastward, including the Rochester area. These showers
will last through midday or early afternoon before fading away.
Temperatures will remain steady today in the mid to upper 40s as
the diurnal cycle swims upstream against persistent cold advection.

While lake clouds will be present into this evening, subsidence and
dry air should limit shower development once we get to late
afternoon or early evening. Chilly conditions expected tonight. Lake
clouds will be around mainly south-southeast of the Lakes. Low
temperatures will fall to the upper 20s to low 30s across higher
elevations to the mid to upper 30s across the Lake Plains.

High pressure across eastern Canada will track east Sunday. Cool and
dry conditions will continue across the region. Clouds will increase
from the south by the afternoon as low pressure tracks along the
southeast U.S. coast. High temperatures will reach the upper 40s to
low 50s Sunday.


Precipitation is expected to return Sunday night and Monday as a
stationary front, with several waves riding along it, sets up across
the area. Rounds of rain will continue Monday night and Tuesday as
low pressure moving northeast of the area pulls the boundary through
as a cold front. It is possible enough cold air seeps in to lead to
a brief period of light snow for the highest elevations east of Lake
Ontario late Monday night into early Tuesday morning, but no
additional accumulation is anticipated. Otherwise , it will
remain warm enough for all liquid precipitation.


Drier and cooler conditions come into the forecast area with the
passage of Tuesday`s frontal boundary. The mean jet positing sinks to
our south, leaving us in a fall-like continental polar air mass with
far lower chances of precipitation. Even with cold advection behind
the front, lake to 850 hPa delta T values are unimpressive, so a
lake response is not really anticipated in the cold advection. Also,
while temperatures will fall back a bit, no significant cold
outbreak is expected.


Northwest flow and cold-air advection will lead to low-level
moisture across the region today. Widespread MVFR stratus will
continue today through tonight, especially across higher terrain and
east and southeast of the lakes. Cooler air over the Lakes will
continue to support a few scattered showers southeast of the lakes
through midday or early afternoon.


Sunday night and Monday...MVFR. Showers likely.
Tuesday...VFR/MVFR. A chance of showers.


West, then northwest winds will follow in the wake of the cold
frontal passage after midnight today. Waves will also increase
today. Small Craft Advisories remain up on Lake Ontario through this
afternoon. Winds will relax tonight and Sunday.


MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for LOZ043-
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for



NEAR TERM...Hitchcock/HSK
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