555
FXUS61 KBUF 050635
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 AM EDT Fri Jun 5 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No significant changes with this forecast package.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday with a heavy rain
and severe weather risk.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...Showers and thunderstorms return Saturday with a
heavy rain and severe weather risk.

High amplitude ridge axis shifts to the east as a mid-level trough
and associated surface low slides across Ontario/Quebec pushing a
cold front into the region this weekend. The initial surge of
moisture arrives ahead of the approaching trough late tonight with
an increasing potential for showers and the outside chance for
a thunderstorm. Better chances for showers and scattered
thunderstorms will be Saturday with the passage of a pre-frontal
trough and main cold front, with convective coverage likely to
be the greatest along and inland from developing lake breeze
boundaries.

Deep moisture axis sets up across the region with PWATs climbing
to between 1.5 and 1.75 inches bringing the potential for locally
heavy rain, though with the dry antecedent conditions hydro
concerns seem unlikely unless training of cells is realized. Some
uncertainty in how much instability develops through the day,
but with forecast deep-layer shear of near 40 knots there could
be a few stronger storms capable of locally strong/damaging winds
and hail Saturday afternoon/evening. The greatest risk across
the western Southern Tier where SPC has that area included in a
Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
High pressure will maintain VFR conditions for one more day, then
give way to an incoming shortwave trough tonight. with the arrival
of the trough, some showers and thunderstorms will be possible after
midnight which may bring localized restrictions.

Outlook...

Saturday and Sunday...Mainly MVFR/VFR, with localized IFR in showers
and thunderstorms. Heavy downpours are possible.

Monday through Wednesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Variable winds generally 10 knots or less will continue on the lower
Great Lakes this morning. Primarily south to southwesterly winds
will increase to near 15 knots on Lake Erie and the western
half of Lake Ontario this afternoon.

Southwest winds will increase Saturday ahead of an approaching
frontal boundary. Choppy conditions will develop on Lake
Erie/Ontario as waves get in the 3 foot range, with some potential
for higher waves on the eastern end of Lake Ontario. There will be a
risk for gusty thunderstorms Saturday with the frontal passage.

Behind the frontal passage, a lighter wind field will develop
through early next week with winds trending onshore each late
morning through early evening due to daily lake breeze development.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...TMA
AVIATION...AR
MARINE...TMA