809
FXUS61 KCLE 310723
AFDCLE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cleveland OH
323 AM EDT Fri Jul 31 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
No major changes from the previous forecast cycle. The weekend
continues to trend slower, which may allow for most of the area
to be dry during the daytime hours on Saturday.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) Seasonable last day of July is expected today with some
isolated rain chances in interior Northeast Ohio this afternoon.

2) Showers and storms activity will increase through the weekend,
especially late Saturday into early Sunday. Locally heavy
rainfall is possible where any repeated or training
thunderstorms occur.

3) Daily, scattered rain chances and near normal temperatures
are expected for Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
High pressure will continue to move east across the area today.
This will allow for return flow and additional moisture to enter
the region. High temperatures will be warmer today in the 80s
for most with some isolated highs near 90. The combination of
temperatures approaching convective temperatures, additional
moisture with dew points in the 60s, and a lake breeze could
allow for some showers to form in interior Northeast Ohio.
Coverage will be fairly limited, but will maintain some low
PoPs. For most, it will just be a dry, typical late July day.

KEY MESSAGE 2...
The main weather concern for the entire forecast period will be
a low pressure system that will move through the region starting
on Saturday and not fully exit until Monday evening. This system
continues to trend slower with the 00z guidance and much of the
forecast area may end up staying dry during the daytime hours
on Saturday with just some scattered activity in the western
half of the forecast area. The bulk of the rain and storm
activity seems to be honing in on Saturday night into Sunday.
The environment with incoming low and upper trough moving
through the region will be favorable for efficient rainfall with
PW values over 2 inches in some model soundings in Northwest
and North Central Ohio. Storms should be progressing across the
region, despite the sluggish low. However, there is enough
forcing to get multiple storms to develop and there is concern
for training storms, which could pose a flood risk. Portions of
the western forecast area are in a Day 2 Slight Risk for
excessive rainfall to highlight the heavy rain and flash flood
potential on Saturday night. Portions of NE OH and NW PA are in
a Day 3 Slight Risk for excessive rainfall as rain will continue
on Sunday for the eastern half of the area. The system will exit
by Monday and have PoPs trending down Sunday evening and onward.

KEY MESSAGE 3...
For next week, the upper trough that supported the system
through the region this weekend will become elongated and then
get pinched off from the main upper flow moving through eastern
Canada. This will allow for a cut off upper low to form over
the central Appalachians. With this feature to the southeast of
the forecast area, tough to be highly confident in rain chances.
However, this feature could provide just enough lift in a
typical summer atmosphere to generate some scattered showers
and maybe some storm. The best chance for any rain would be
during the daytime hours with help from peak heating.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z Friday THROUGH Tuesday/...
Widespread VFR conditions are expected through this TAF period
as high pressure remains dominant across the region. There is a
slight chance for isolated showers to impact KCAK and KYNG this
afternoon, but given low confidence in timing and extent opted
to handle with VCSH at this point. High clouds begin to build
over the region this afternoon as a low pressure system begins
to approach from the west. Winds will remain light and variable
through the period.

Outlook...Non-VFR conditions in showers and thunderstorms are
expected Saturday afternoon through Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Pleasant marine conditions are expected across Lake Erie today
as high pressure remains over the region. Light winds with a
southerly component will result in waves less than 1 foot. A low
pressure system will move into the region on Saturday and
Sunday shifting winds to easterly at 10-15 knots for much of the
weekend before becoming northerly late Sunday. Waves through
the weekend will generally linger in the 1-3 foot range,
although once the flow becomes onshore a few higher waves will
be possible. Right now the forecast keeps conditions sub-
criteria for Small Craft Advisory, but will need to continue to
monitor in coming days for any potential enhancement in the
winds and waves. By the start of next week, high pressure will
return along with calm marine conditions.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...None.
PA...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Sefcovic
AVIATION...04
MARINE...04