485
FXUS63 KDTX 070948
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
548 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Dry today into tomorrow.

- Next chance for thunderstorms late tomorrow into Tuesday. Tuesday
  carries a heavy rainfall threat.

- Hot and humid Wednesday and Thursday along with additional
  thunderstorm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...

High pressure builds over Ontario today, with its southern flank
expanding into Lower Michigan. Light northeast flow veers gradually
to the east by this evening, aided by lake breezes off of Saginaw
Bay and Lake St Clair/Lake Erie. Lack of column moisture ensures VFR
conditions through the TAF period.

D21/DTW Convection...No thunderstorms will impact the airspace
through the TAF period.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 347 AM EDT Sun Jun 7 2026

DISCUSSION...

Post frontal anticylonic flow has developed in the wake of the
frontal passage pushing instability out of the area and bringing
broad subsidence. The upper ridging and surface high drifting across
the Great Lakes will maintain the dry and stable conditions today
with mostly clear skies aside from a few possible lake clouds around
the Thumb. Northerly winds today will make for a more noticeable
temperature change compared to yesterday across the Thumb lakeshore
areas where afternoon lake influenced highs will be in the 70s. Low
to mid 80s can be expected for inland areas under full insolation.

Dry weather will continue through at least the first half of
tomorrow as the ridge slides east. A southern stream shortwave will
lift northward into the Midwest quickly following the passing of the
ridge. A sharp moisture gradient that had been suppressed to the
west will be released across southeast Michigan late tomorrow into
Tuesday. Precipitation chances creep into central Michigan with lower
end chances reaching western portions of the CWA towards the late
afternoon, but will more than likely hold off until tomorrow night
into Tuesday.

The southern stream wave and deep southerly flow will draw even
better Gulf moisture into southeast Michigan on Tuesday bringing the
next opportunity for widespread showers and thunderstorms. The
moisture rich environment will result in a heavy rainfall threat
supported by PWATs approaching or achieving 2.00 inches, surface
dewpoints in the low 70s, tall skinny CAPE profiles, and weak cloud
layer winds. The overall severe weather threat looks low given the
weak shear and lack of instability/moist adiabatic lapse rates, but
water loaded downdrafts could still generate some gusty downburst
winds. The limited severe threat leans toward a heavy rainfall
threat that is more isolated and location dependent within the urban
areas. Most ensembles put QPF amounts at 0.25" to 0.75". A few
ensemble members along with local probabilistic guidance point to
amounts that could reach 1.00" to 1.50" or greater during the day
Tuesday.

Return flow becomes established Wednesday downstream of troughing
extending across the northern US Rockies into the upper Midwest.
This will bring a chance for warmer temperatures mid to late week
into the lower 90s as 850 mb temperatures reach around 20C.
Unsettled flow will persist with chances for showers and
thunderstorms both Wednesday and Thursday, so being able to reach the
90s will be dependent on what the cloud cover and coverage of
convection ends up verifying. Higher coverage of precipitation and
clouds likely brings these highs back into the 80s, while a drier
outcome makes low 90s more achievable then in turn would also push
heat indices towards 100 degrees and the potential heat headlines.
Will continue to monitor the heat potential.

MARINE...

High pressure will fill in across the eastern Great Lakes today
which will continue to decrease winds across Lake Huron this
morning. Winds will veer north to northeast today and will then
continue to veer east-southeast by tomorrow morning. Low pressure
enters Tuesday into Wednesday which will bring some unsettled
weather including periodic rain showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Winds still generally remain light through this time frame as gusts
hold aob 20 knots, outside of any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....MV
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......AM


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at www.weather.gov/detroit.