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000
FXUS63 KDTX 051102
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
702 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

.AVIATION...

Mid and high level clouds are passing over the area this morning at
the nose of an upper jet streak. The trailing weak surface cold
front will track southward across the local area over the course of
the day, bringing a slight lowering to these clouds but maintaining
VFR conditions through the forecast given dry lower levels.
Elevated wildfire smoke is again expected to spread over the area
today with some potential for mixing toward the surface ahead of the
front this afternoon, but low confidence in any visibility
restrictions. Winds will be predominantly out of the north at 10 kt
or less through the period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* None.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 401 AM EDT Mon Jun 5 2023

DISCUSSION...

Higher coverage of cirrus has arrived over southeast Michigan this
morning ahead of a cold front moving across northern Lake Superior
and south central Ontario. A few showers are seen on radar closer
the frontal boundary near the Straights and moving into northern
Lower Michigan where there is just enough moisture feeding the front
to support this activity. Models continue to show this band of
moisture deteriorate with southward progression as the greater upper
jet and shortwave forcing far outraces the surface cold front this
morning. With just a modest amount of mid level moisture, still
expect mainly virga with possibly some sprinkles from the mid cloud
deck can be expected through the morning. Think the chance for a
bonafide light shower remains low, so will keep any mention out of
the forecast.

Cloud cover this morning looks to decrease throughout the day from
north to south. With the ongoing wildfires in Quebec and the deep
northerly flow directing smoke into the region, expect haze
conditions towards the later part of the day. The early day clouds
and later day haze lean towards keeping afternoon high temperatures a
couple degrees below guidance. Max temperatures should land in the
upper 70s to low 80s for the majority of the CWA. Developing
northerly surface flow through the afternoon will help draw cooler
lake air to the lakeshore locations and keep daytime highs more in
the mid 70s range. The eventual arrival of the surface cold front
through southeast Michigan will come tonight. The associated cold air
advection does not really make an arrival into the area until after
12Z Tuesday. This allow for temperatures overnight to hold int the
50s.

The cold air advection during the day Tuesday can be characterized
by 850 mb temperatures down to 7C. The timing of cold air and the
deep northerly flow will help keep temperatures across the northern
and eastern portions of the Thumb in the 60s. The remainder of the
area will see mainly 70s with some locations possibly reaching 80
across the Detroit metro region and points south. Surface high
pressure will also be building out of Ontario down into Michigan
today, which will ensure continued dry conditions.

Blocked flow really holds firm during the mid to late week period
with the northern plains ridge extending from the Midwest into James
Bay and broad low pressure across eastern Canada and extending down
towards the mid Atlantic coast. This effectively maintains a long
period of deep northerly flow and keeps cooler and drier air over
the region. This will keep daytime highs mostly in the 70s and
overnight lows mostly in the 40s for Wed/Thurs/Fri with Friday being
the warmest day of that stretch with temperatures closer to 80. The
next chance for any precipitation will come over the weekend.

MARINE...

Light and variable winds early this morning trend northerly
throughout the day as strengthening high pressure over Ontario and a
deepening coastal low to the east set up a diffluent pattern
locally. Meanwhile, weak low pressure over west-central Quebec
merges with the coastal low, drawing its cold front south through
the Great Lakes region latter half of today and tonight. The result
is a more pronounced wind shift to the N-NE across all marine zones
by mid morning Tuesday with a slight uptick in winds to 15-20 knots
as the front passes. Consistent signal in wave model data for waves
to reach at least 3-5 feet along the Lake Huron shoreline Tuesday,
just a bit early to issue Small Craft Advisories with this forecast
issuance. Recent dry weather works against precipitation chances,
even with the cold front, so expecting the majority of the week to
maintain dry and favorable marine conditions.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....TF
DISCUSSION...AA
MARINE.......MV


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