795
FXUS63 KEAX 052143
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
343 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Return to more seasonal temperatures today.

- Saturday night`s storm track continues to shift northward.
  Precipitation chances have overall decreased with a shift in
  snow amounts further north.

- Temperatures look to warm back above normal early next week
  before another system passes by kicking them back toward
  seasonal expectations.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 342 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

Southerly surface flow lifts temperatures today back toward
seasonal expectations with highs around the area reaching near
40 to the mid 40s. Some portions of west central MO and east
central KS might touch 50 degrees this afternoon. Another pulse
of cold air moves in overnight cutting the warming trend, but
keeps the temperatures outlook fairly static minus far NE MO
where some places might struggle to eclipse freezing. Shortwave
ridging keeps much of the daylight hours dry.

Aloft a shortwave is expected to descend out of western Canada
developing a lee trough which progresses through the northern CONUS
overnight Saturday into Sunday. Guidance has been steadily
maintaining the northern track keeping the bulk of the
precipitation through IA with more ensemble members joining the
consensus increasing confidence. Some deterministic guidance is
even more pessimistic and suggests we might even stay dry. At
this point, we are still expecting some precipitation with the
system as it passes by to the north. Precipitation looks to be
concentrated north of I-70 and is expected to move into the
region after sunset Saturday continuing through Sunday morning.
With this northward track, temperatures stay warmer for longer
keeping most of the snow potential north of the US- 36 corridor
through the early part of the event. Far NE MO remains the most
likely area for notable accumulations were around an inch or two
of snow is expected. Everywhere else can expect to remain less
than an inch. Temperatures remain the primary driver of
precipitation transition (which is not that surprising). The
onset of sub-freezing temperatures is expected after midnight
across far northern MO progressing southward to around 3AM for
the KC metro. As this freezing line migrates south, rain is
expected to transition over to snow. Model vertical profiles
have shown the air temperature hugging the 0C isotherm, but
still show a fairly clean flip from above to below freezing.
This limits the sleet and freezing rain potential. However, any
slight warm nose could produce a small window of freezing rain.
Some models have shown a bit bigger of a warm nose be it from
upper level warm air advection or quicker low level cooling
which does increase the plausibility of a period of freezing
rain. The good news is that the window of freezing rain is quite
small and the flip from rain to snow should be fairly rapid.
Any ice accumulations are expected to be minimal most likely
affecting bridges and elevated surfaces.

Cold air advection on the backside of the system keeps below to
around freezing. Warmer air builds back in early next week as
ridging and southerly flow establish themselves. It is not
implausible for highs next Tuesday to reach the 50s for most south
of I-70. Another system looks to clip the northern part of the area
Tuesday night into Wednesday. Early projections show this system
behaving similar to the one on Saturday including the general track
and potential track deviations. Extended guidance wants to lift the
general jet stream axis further north which could potentially open
up access to a longer period of higher than normal temperatures as
mid-December approaches.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1131 AM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the duration of the forecast
period. Winds remain southwesterly through the period becoming
light and variable after sunset. Winds return more southeasterly
after sunrise tomorrow. Clouds remain high through the period.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Pesel