459
FXUS63 KEAX 031726
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1226 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures continue.

- Next notable chances for rain come late Sunday into Monday.

- Cooler, more seasonal conditions expected next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 404 AM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Satellite imagery over the CONUS is fairly similar to what has
been seen over the past few days. The jet stream maintains its
generally northern position with a stout relatively stationary
high pressure dominating the southern Plains and the eastern
CONUS. This has resulted in a prolonged pattern of calm
conditions, above average temperatures. Southerly flow at low to
midlevels combined with solar heating from clear skies keeps
temperatures up to more summertime levels. Earlier guidance
pointed toward high temperatures today eclipsing 90 degrees.
While consensus has backed off mainly due to the weaker
disorganized southerly low to midlevel flow, there is still as
notable chance of temperatures breaking 90F (~25% chance). The
best chance for this would be if solar heating can over perform
expectations combating the general cold air advection aloft and
downward mixing of this cooler air. The good news is this upper
downward mixing of drier air has kept dew points and relative
humidities comfortable through the course of this abnormally
warm stretch.

Satellite also shows a digging low pressure system across the
Pacific Coast. This will be the driving force to change the pattern
late this weekend. This system continues to dig southward into the
Rocky Mountains compressing the pressure gradient across the central
CONUS. This brings the potential for breezy conditions Saturday and
Sunday with wind gusts potentially reaching 20-30 MPH. This could
also give a slight boost of warm air advection which could elevate
temperatures Saturday and Sunday slightly higher than current
forecasts once again approaching 90 degrees.

As the trough pivots and begins to lift northeastward, strong
frontogenesis along with a geographically compressing moisture and
temperature gradient initiate showers and thunderstorms late Sunday
night into Monday. While the boundaries look to be fairly stark, the
late night timing of convective initiation appears to tamper strong
to severe storms chances. Models do show some shear and marginal
instability, but LLJ dynamics favor stronger to severe storm chances
being further west across central KS at this time. This frontal
boundary is expected to slowly work its way into the region resulting
in chances for showers and thunderstorms sticking around portions of
NW MO and far NE KS through Tuesday night. While storms are not
expected to be continuous, the long temporal period of storm
potential could result in some flooding, especially with PWAT values
constant at 1-1.5 inches throughout. However, the ground continues
to remain dry and could take a fair bit of water before flooding
becomes a significant concern. At this juncture excessive runoff
looks to be the primary catalyst for potential flooding, but again,
the overall outlook remains marginal.

Behind the front, winds shift back out of the NW ushering in cooler
air. Temperatures return back toward seasonal normals with highs
dipping to the low to mid 70s by midweek. Long term guidance does
suggest more expansive pressure systems traversing the continent;
however, 500mb flow remains a bit more open across the midlatitude
CONUS bringing some more potential opportunities for rain to help cut
into the precipitation deficit as well progress further into fall.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Oct 3 2025

VFR conditions anticipated for the duration of the TAF period. A
cu field has already begun forming over eastern MO and will
continue to trend farther west. Therefore, added a FEW050 group
for terminal sites. Winds will remain mostly out of the south
for the next 24 hours. Occasional gusts to 18-21 kts will be
possible with daytime mixing late tomorrow morning/afternoon.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Pesel
AVIATION...Collier