401
FXUS63 KGRB 090919
AFDGRB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Green Bay WI
419 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Forecast discussion for routine morning forecast issuance

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold this morning, with a Frost Advisory out for counties where
  the growing season continues.

- Moderating temperatures the rest of the week with readings at or
  above normal.

- Showers and a few thunderstorms late tonight into Friday, along
  with increasing winds.

- Additional rain chances next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 419 AM CDT Thu Oct 9 2025

Cold this morning, followed by moderating temperatures through the
rest of the forecast period. One more dry day, then a more active
setup starts to take shape.

Temperatures...Ongoing Frost Advisory remains in effect until
14Z/9AM. Temperatures at 4AM were mainly in the middle 30s across
the advisory area. Temperatures moderate after this morning, with
the rest of the week expecting readings AOA normal. Overnight lows
will mostly be in the 40s, with daytime highs in the upper 50s and
60s.

Precipitation...Dry weather today, then opportunities for rain
are on the horizon. A cold front and compact upper low bring a
medium to high chance (40-60%) of rain tonight through Friday
night. Coverage will initially be scattered to widespread, becoming
widely scattered Friday afternoon after the surface front passes
through. Isolated thunder is not out of the question due to a
small bit of instability, but severe storms are not expected.
Amounts will generally be around a quarter of an inch or less,
with the highest forecast totals across far northern and northeast
WI where NBM probabilities of at least a quarter inch range from
30-50%.

High pressure builds back for most of the weekend. Then, deep
troughing develops across the western CONUS late this weekend with
a strong upper jet stretching from the Four Corners Region to the
Great Lakes. This will help send a few different features through
next week which could bring rain. First, with a cold front Sunday
night into Monday, followed by a low pressure system during the
midweek, but models are not set on exact timing and specifics this
far out.

&&

.AVIATION...for 06Z TAF Issuance
Issued at 1026 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

VFR conditions will prevail at all terminals through the TAF period.

A high pressure system currently centered over north-central
Wisconsin will continue to move eastward overnight keeping skies
clear and winds light. Clear skies should remain through much of
Thursday, expect along Lake Michigan where scattered cu based around
4.5kft may develop during the afternoon. Winds Thursday will veer
around to the south with periodic  gusts to 15 kts possible.

A compact clipper system and associated cold front are forecast to
arrive into north-central WI late Thursday night into Friday
morning. This will bring the next chance for precipitation to the
region along with a period. For now have only included a TEMPO
ground with -SHRA at RHI at the very end of the TAF period. Along
and behind the front an MVFR status deck is also likely Friday
morning across northern WI.

&&

.GRB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Frost Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for WIZ020-022-030-
031-035>040-045-048>050-073-074.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION.....KLJ
AVIATION.......GK