140
FXUS63 KGRR 221726
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1226 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain Moves in Monday Night

- Colder with Snow Showers by Wednesday

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 311 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

- Rain Moves in Monday Night

Shortwave trough axis moves through the Great Lakes today but
moisture and lift is displaced well off to the north of the
forecast area and dry weather continues into Monday. A Southern
PLains low tracks into Lower Michigan with rain arriving Monday
night into Tuesday. This is quickly followed by a northern stream
shortwave trough amplifying into a closed upper low and full
latitude troughing by Wednesday,

- Colder with Snow Showers by Wednesday

Colder air wraps in behind the low with 850mb temps falling below
minus 10C on Wednesday into Thanksgiving. Broad cyclonic flow
along with inversion heights near 8 kft will allow snow showers to
develop and these should penetrate far inland given the west-
northwest flow and mean boundary layer winds near 40 mph. SNow
showers should diminish by Friday as heights rise with the upper
trough shifting east. Snow amounts uncertain at this range but it
appears to be cold enough for snow to accumulate on roads and
affect travel from Wednesday to Thursday night.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

Ongoing cirrus deck will thicken and lower to 7-10kft through the
day as a warm frontal followed by cold frontal passage occurs.
Late tonight into early Sunday morning, a low (20-30%) chance of
MVFR ceilings for a few hours behind the cold frontal passage.
Will include restrictions in TAFs in later packages if confidence
increases. Also, increasing winds to around 30 knots at 2kft will
lead to conditions approaching, but not quite reaching, LLWS
criteria tonight. South to southwest winds tonight will veer to
westerly by Sunday morning, increasing to around 10 knots. Gusts
of 20-25 knots are possible at MKG.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Sunday
     for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Thomas