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514
FXUS63 KGRR 220614
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
214 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

- Winds gusting over 50 mph at times into this evening.

- Big waves on Lake Michigan through Tuesday night with coastal
  flooding and beach erosion.

- Colder weather from Wednesday into early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Monday)
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

We will be watching a narrow line of convection currently in
northern Illinois/southern Wisconsin move across Lake Michigan and
through southwest Lower Michigan this evening. Although this line
will probably be too low topped to produce much lightning, it
could be able to being down some damaging winds. We have issued an
SPS for the strong wind gusts but will have to monitor closely for
the potential of severe criteria winds as the line moves through.

Coastal flooding and beach erosion expected Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Wind gusts over 50 mph are possible into this evening as
narrow line of convection is expected to move across the forecast
area. The LOT and GRR radar-derived wind profiles show a strong
low level core of high winds of 40 to 60 mph below 5000 feet AGL.
Some of these winds have been able to mix down this afternoon with
a few gusts over 50 mph.

Conditions will improve as the sfc low occludes and fills
Wednesday. Cold air wraps in behind the low with some wet
snowflakes possible late Thursday night. Fair weather expected for
Friday and Saturday then a chance of showers Saturday night and
Sunday as a surface low tracking north of the Great Lakes brings
a trailing cold front through.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Tuesday night)
Issued at 206 AM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

A very fall like pattern will be in place throughout the course of
the TAF period of 06z Tuesday to 06z Wednesday.

We are currently in the dry slot of a wrapped up fall storm
centered over Wisconsin. What this means is we are mainly clear at
this time (06z). Colder air is beginning to pour across Lake
Michigan however and the lake clouds and lake generated
precipitation is about to commence. We are expecting rain showers
and MVFR ceilings to overspread the area between 12z and 14z this
morning. A MVFR cloud deck between 1500ft and 2500ft will be in
place throughout the remainder of the TAF period. The lowest
ceilings around 1500ft are expected in the late morning hours
through the afternoon. Showers will be most prevalent towards Lake
Michigan, or at MKG, GRR and AZO. Conditions will slowly improve
tonight with showers tapering off and ceilings trying to lift to
VFR.

Winds will be a factor today once again out of the southwest
(210-240). Winds speeds will remain in the 10-15 knot range for
the remainder of the night, but jump up considerably around 14z.
15-30 knot winds will be common again today, with gusts between
30-40 knots. Winds will tone down after sunset, especially after
02z to 03z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 252 PM EDT Mon Oct 21 2019

No changes to the Gale Warning. Core of high winds with gusts
reaching 40 knot gales this afternoon is moving east so winds
should actually decrease next few hours. Winds will go southwest
tonight and increase again on Tuesday. Gales to 35 knots will
continue into Tuesday night before decreasing on Wednesday.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Lakeshore Flood Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for MIZ037-043-
     050-056-064-071.

LM...Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Wednesday for LMZ844>849.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Ostuno
DISCUSSION...Ostuno
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Ostuno