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000
FXUS63 KGRR 080211
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
1011 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

LATEST UPDATE...
Update/Marine

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

- Frost and freezing temperature concerns continue

- Precipitation chances end this evening, possibly reappear on
  Sunday

- Mainly dry for next week

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

Isolated showers have ended but some cloudiness is still
impacting eastern sections from Clare to Jackson and should
continue to do so through the night (on and off). Another batch
of mid level clouds is spreading into the Ludington area from the
northwest but is not completely solid and should dissipate
somewhat overnight. Regardless of the lingering clouds here and
there overnight, frost and freeze conditions are still likely and
will make no changes to the existing headlines.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Friday)
Issued at 330 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

- Frost and freezing temperature concerns continue

We have issued both a Frost Advisory and a Freeze Warning tonight
across the entire forecast area. By no means a standard
configuration, but tonight is not a standard frost and freezing
temperature kind of night. In the eastern CWA we will have clouds
lingering much of the night. This will keep temperatures up a bit
there which is why we went Advisory. In the west, winds off the
lake will keep temperatures up just a bit which is why we went
Advisory there as well. The coldest temperatures should be found
in between through the Highway 131 corridor and up across Central
Lower Michigan.

Frost and freezing temperatures will continue to need to be
evaluated each night through Tuesday night. We will be
coordinating with neighboring offices on each day shift and making
evaluations on what headline will be needed.

- Precipitation chances end this evening, possibly reappear on
  Sunday

The showers and isolated thunderstorms should push off to the east
of the area this evening. As the upper low swings south tonight
cannot rule out some showers overnight in our far eastern counties
along Highway 127.

Model discrepancies remain with regard to the Saturday night and
Sunday system. The GFS still brings in a fairly significant swath
of rain into Southern Lower Michigan. The ECMWF is holding firm
that the rain will remain largely south of our area. It should be
noted though that the ECMWF has nudged a bit north with the
precipitation. Our forecast is starting to trend towards the GFS
which seems logical given that the ECMWF is slowly nudging
towards its solution. We have likely pops in our southern two rows
of counties on Sunday.

- Mainly dry for next week

Outside of the rain this evening/tonight and the precipitation on
Saturday night/Sunday we are expecting mainly dry weather. We do
have some low pops for showers in the forecast centered around
Thursday, but thinking we largely stay dry. The blend is keying on
some upper troughing and a bit of moisture, so in the end our
20-30 pops seem fine at this point.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 746 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

VFR prevailing tonight and Saturday, although a brief period of
MVFR cannot be ruled out this evening at LAN and JXN. Gusty
northwest winds over 20 kts diminishing to 7-10 kts by midnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1011 PM EDT Fri May 7 2021

Will cancel the Small Craft Advisory early north of Grand Haven
where winds and waves have already subsided below criteria. The
advisory remains in effect south of Grand Haven through 5 am as
the Port Sheldon and South Haven buoys are still reporting 4-5 ft
waves. Even here though a subsiding trend will occur overnight.

Winds and waves will then remain below Small Craft Advisory
criteria the rest of the weekend. Stronger easterly winds may
develop on Sunday though with higher waves holding off until
Sunday night when the flow begins to back to the north.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...Frost Advisory from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ037-043-046-
     050-052-056-059-064-067-071-074.

     Freeze Warning from 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Saturday for MIZ038>040-044-
     045-051-057-058-065-066-072-073.

LM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for LMZ844>846.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Meade
SYNOPSIS...Duke
DISCUSSION...Duke
AVIATION...Meade
MARINE...Meade