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000
FXUS63 KGRR 281154
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
754 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

LATEST UPDATE...
Aviation

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

- Fair and cool weather through Saturday

- Colder and windy Sunday with lake effect snow showers

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Tuesday)
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

-- Fair and cool weather through Saturday --

Fair weather is forecast today through Saturday.  A consensus
of latest medium range guidance suggests that rain associated
with the tropical remnants will stay south to southeast of our
area Thursday as high pressure building in from the northwest
will help to keep our area dry. Short range guidance trends now
suggest that even the northernmost periphery of the light rain
showers/sprinkles will stay just south to SE of our area
Thursday.

-- Colder and windy Sunday with lake effect snow showers --

A strong cold front will move through Saturday night and bring
scattered rain showers. This will be followed by strong caa and
falling temps Sunday resulting in lake effect snow showers as
H8 temps plummet to around -8 C in conjunction with cyclonic
flow. It will also become quite windy Sunday with 12Z ecmwf
ensemble guidance data as well as the 00z ecmwf deterministic
guidance showing potential for wind gusts in the 40 to 50 mph
range.

Lake effect snow showers will taper off Sunday night as H8 temps
begin to moderate. It will remain cold through Monday before temps
gradually moderate to above normal for this time of year by mid
to late next week. Predominantly dry wx is expected next week.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Thursday morning)
Issued at 754 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

VFR weather is expected the next 24 hours. Low clouds have
scattered out/moved east this morning with the arrival of stronger
winds aloft. Clouds through 12z on Thursday will mainly be
confined to mid and high clouds with bases above 9,000ft. The
exception will be late tonight where some lake effect
stratocumulus will develop off Lake Michigan. Places near and
north of Muskegon after 06z tonight will see some clouds in the
3,500ft to 5,000ft range. There is the potential for some MVFR
across Central Lower Michigan.

Winds will be southwest today at 10-20 knots with gusts in the
20-25 knot range. Strongest winds will occur between 12z and 18z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 311 AM EDT Wed Oct 28 2020

A gale warning is in effect from Whitehall northward through 8 pm
this evening with a small craft advisory in effect through then
south of Whitehall. Waves will stay up around 3 to 6 feet through
this afternoon before gradually subsiding mid to late this evening
and overnight as winds diminish.


&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
LM...Gale Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ848-849.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LMZ844>847.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Laurens
DISCUSSION...Laurens
AVIATION...Duke
MARINE...Laurens