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479
FXUS63 KGRR 211914
AFDGRR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
314 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

LATEST UPDATE...
Synopsis/Discussion/Hydro

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

- A mostly dry cold front will swing through Lower Michigan
  tonight making way for a blustery Friday.

- After a splendid Saturday and early Sunday, light precipitation
  is possible mainly south of I-96 early Monday.

- A dry and warming period is expected through the middle of next
  week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This evening through next Thursday)
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Currently, temperatures are in the upper 30s to lower 40s with
overcast skies and light north/northwesterly winds. A few pockets of
broken cloud cover can be seen in visible satellite imagery, and
indeed a few lucky locations may see the sun before nightfall. A
cold front associated with a potent upper-level shortwave trough can
be seen diving south over south-central Ontario and northern Lake
Superior, with clearing skies over the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
and central Wisconsin.

As the aforementioned shortwave trough dives south over Lower
Michigan overnight/early Friday morning, a few light snow showers
are possible but the forecast low-level thermal and moisture
profiles suggest the snow showers will be light with highly
scattered coverage (e.g. not everyone will see snowflakes tonight).
Temperatures will be slower to fall than previously thought, likely
preventing a "flash freeze" tonight. Rather, it appears
temperatures will wait to fall below freezing until Friday evening
at most locations. With stout northwesterly winds gusting to
25-30 mph during the afternoon hours, Friday will certainly feel
"raw" with wind chills in the lower 20s falling to the lower teens
Friday night (single digits in traditional cold spots).

Saturday and the first half of Sunday still look splendid with
abundant sunshine and temperatures warming into the mid 40s and
lower 50s, respectively. Cloud cover will increase Sunday evening as
yet another upper-level trough approaches from the north in tandem
with an approaching (though weak) surface wave from the southwest.
Forecast ensemble and deterministic model guidance continues to
demonstrate inconsistency in precipitation potential Sunday night
and into Monday morning with the wave, but current indications are
that should it indeed precipitate, totals would be light and
mainly south of I-96.

Monday afternoon through mid-week will feature dry conditions and a
warming trend with highs climbing toward the 50 mark Wednesday and
especially Thursday. Forecast ensemble model guidance then continues
to suggest the pattern will become stormy for the end of the week
with anywhere from a wintry mix, thunderstorms, to locally heavy
rainfall included within the ensemble solution space...Rest
assured we have plenty of time between now and then to sort out
the details.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 106 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

Ceilings are expected to continue rising gradually as the
afternoon progresses with a brief period of VFR cigs possible
before sunset. MVFR cigs will return after dark as a cold front
sweeps south across the state. No visibility restrictions are
currently in the forecast. Northwesterly winds will slightly back
westerly this afternoon, before returning northwesterly after the
aforementioned front sweeps through. Wind gusts may exceed 20
knots toward the end of the TAF period.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 315 PM EDT Thu Mar 21 2019

No more flood products are in effect as river levels have fallen
below flood stage and runoff water levels have subsided across
Newaygo county. However, numerous roadways remain closed
particularly across Newaygo and northern Kent counties due to
flood water damage. No significant precipitation is expected over
the next four to seven days.

&&

.GRR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Borchardt
DISCUSSION...Borchardt
AVIATION...Borchardt
HYDROLOGY...Borchardt