Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Rapids, MI

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FXUS63 KGRR 220634

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI
235 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022


.DISCUSSION...(Today through next Saturday)
Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

...Clearing today, frost possible north tonight...

Latest radar shows scattered showers moving northeast across the
cwa. This precipitation is in advance of the upper trough axis and
once that moves through later this morning, the showers will end. A
large dome of high pressure will then settle over the Great Lakes
and we`ll see the clouds scatter out during the late morning and
afternoon. Today will be chilly. Cold advection will push h8 temps
down to around 0c over the CWA which will result in surface
temperatures a couple of degrees either side of 60 today. Skies will
clear tonight and when coupled with the light winds underneath the
high, temperatures will fall into the mid 30s over the northern cwa.
As such, we have issued a frost advisory for northern portions of
the cwa tonight.

...Mid week storm system...

After a sunny Monday, clouds will increase Tuesday ahead of the next
system. The ECMWF and GFS have been in lockstep for the past few
days with the track and intensity of this low that moves north from
Texas. There will be a strong feed of Gulf moisture with this system
and we could be looking at a widespread decent rain Wednesday into
Thursday; precipitable water values increase to around 1.6 inches
Wednesday thanks to a 45 kt LLJ advecting moisture northward. The
upper low won`t clear the area until next Friday, so showers will
linger in the forecast until then.

A warm front is then progd to lift north Saturday, so we`ll likely
have a mention of precipitation for that.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night)
Issued at 114 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

Radar shows scattered showers over Lower Michigan in advance of
the upper trough that will move across the region this morning.
The clearing line remains over central Wisconsin and will take
much of the morning before it reaches the terminals.

VFR cigs/vsbys expected through the period. However, there may be
a couple of hours of cigs around 2k ft at LAN centered around 12z.


Issued at 235 AM EDT Sun May 22 2022

A small craft advisory remains in effect south of Whitehall through
the afternoon. As high pressure builds in over the region later
today, winds will gradually subside below advisory criteria leading
to several days where wind and waves will not be hazardous to small


MI...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Monday for MIZ037>040-

LM...Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 7 PM EDT this evening
 for LMZ844>847.



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