050
FXUS63 KMKX 130745
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
245 AM CDT Fri Jun 13 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Beach Hazards Statement in effect until 6am for dangerous
  waves and currents.

- Additional chances for more scattered showers and weak isolated
  thunderstorms later this afternoon into the evening.

- Aside from an isolated storm or two on Saturday, trending
  drier. Sunday, a line of showers and thunderstorms may
  progress west to east across southern Wisconsin (30 to 50
  percent chance).

- Chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through midweek
  as southern Wisconsin remains in a favorable pattern. Midweek
  stronger storms possible (Tue-Wed)

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Today through Saturday night:

Breezy northeast winds near Lake Michigan has built waves to
around 4 ft this morning, leading to high swim risk across
Sheboygan, Ozaukee, Milwaukee, and Racine Counties. Life
threatening waves and currents are expected. Stay out of the
water and away from dangerous areas like piers and breakwalls.
Waves diminish by the daylight hours this morning. Beach Hazards
Statement in effect until 6am this morning.

Quiet weather conditions expected this morning as dry air
remains overhead with the front south of the region. Much of the
CWA is expected to remain dry throughout the day but the latest
CAMs have started hinting at an increased shower/storm chance
this afternoon into the early evening. This looks to be a
result of 2 different factors; the first being that low to mid
level moisture will increase and just nudge into the south
central and southwest portions of southern WI, the second is
that there looks to be enough low level convergence to force
this potential convection. Forecast sounding show plenty of
omega within the 1000-800mb layer. While shear will be weak
there should be at least some instability to bring a few rumbles
of thunder with isolated to scattered unorganized activity
developing in south central and southwestern WI.

This potential will decrease into the evening as the mid level
moisture slides back out to the south and east. We then expect
higher pressure to build for firmly into southern WI with the
low pressure system to the south weakening and sliding east with
the associated weak trough aloft. This will bring up back into
ridging aloft, though fairly weak as it could easily shift to a
more zonal pattern. There still remains fair bit of uncertainty
with this forecast but models have largely trended drier and
outside of what we could see this afternoon and evening the CWA
looks to remain dry through Saturday night.

Kuroski

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

Sunday through Thursday:

For Sunday, S WI will be on the srn periphery of wnwly flow aloft
due to a low amplitude ridge over the nrn Great Plains and MN.
Surface ridging over the Great Lakes will initially keep much of the
instability west of the MS River , where a sfc trough and moist
and unstable conditions will be present. It is possible a
decaying area of storms attempts to move into wrn and south
central WI on Sunday. For Sunday night through Monday night a
shortwave trough will ripple through the ridge and drop into srn
WI and Lake MI. The sfc trough to the west will shift ewd bringing
moist and unstable conditions into srn WI and a round or two of
convection is probable, but timing and intensity is challenging
at this point.

A shortwave trough will then cross the central Rockies into the
Great Plains on Tue with cyclogenesis to some degree expected
from the central Great Plains into wrn or nrn WI for Wed. A warm
front with very warm and humid conditions will develop into srn
WI ahead of these features with an eventual round or two of deep
convection and possible strong storms. A weak sfc ridge would
then be expected for Thu. 80 degree temps are expected away from
the lake each day during this period.

Gehring

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 230 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

VFR conditions right now but we expect over the next several
hours to see MVFR CIGS develop over central WI though at this
time looks largely to remain north and west of the TAF sites.
While we cannot rule out a brief period of MVFR CIGS for MSN and
SBM CIGS are expected to lift as we warm during the day to VFR
with SCT to BKN CIGS around 5 kft. This will continue throughout
the rest of the day but as low level moisture pushes in from the
south into the evening expect a more prolonged period of MVFR
CIGS for at least parts of southern WI. There remains uncertainty
with regards to how widespread MVFR CIGS will be and for how
long but it will likely last for parts of the area at least into
the daylight hours Saturday. Otherwise limited chances for
showers and storms likely restricted to the afternoon and early
evening today with MSN and JVL having the best chances. Light
to modest east to northeast winds through the TAF period.

Kuroski

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 245 AM CDT Thu Jun 12 2025

High pressure centered over Ontario will keep winds primarily
northeasterly through the weekend, while low pressure over the
Central Plains keeps a stationary front across far southern Lake
Michigan. Winds remain light and variable south of the front.
Northeast winds breezy this morning with a Small Craft Advisory
in effect until 6am for primarily high waves to 4 feet.

Weak low pressure will then develop in the Ohio Valley on later
today, moving eastward and weakening into Sunday. A line of
thunderstorms may develop Sunday afternoon and progress eastward
into Sunday night and Monday morning. Chances for thunderstorms
then continue into midweek as the Ontario high pressure
weakens.

Kuroski

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...Beach Hazards Statement...WIZ052-WIZ060-WIZ066-WIZ071 until 6
     AM Friday.

LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645 until 6 AM Friday.

&&

$$

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