674
FXUS63 KMKX 062129
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
329 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A period of rain showers (50-80 percent chance) will push
  through southern Wisconsin tonight. Additional shower chances
  (~20 percent) develop Friday afternoon/evening along the Lake
  Michigan shoreline.

- A Gale Warning is in effect across the open waters of Lake
  Michigan this evening and overnight for strong south to
  southwest winds.

- A mix of rain and snow (60-80 percent chance), with rain as
  the dominant precipitation type along and south of the
  I-90/I-95 corridor (60-80 percent) is expected Saturday
  afternoon through Saturday night, with a transition to mostly
  snow across all of southern Wisconsin into late Saturday
  night. Minor and slushy accumulations on grassy and elevated
  surfaces are possible (less than 1 inch expected).

- First winter-like air of the season arrives late this weekend
  into early next week, with high temperatures 10 to 15 degrees
  below normal Sunday and Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 330 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Tonight through Friday night:

Southwesterly winds will increase through this evening, with
gusts between 30 and 35 mph expected to develop ahead of a cold
front late this evening. 850-700 mb flow bringing in more
moisture laden air will eventually saturate the low levels and
allow for precipitation to develop along this cold front during
the overnight hours tonight (50-80% chance, with the highest
chances in southeastern to far southern Wisconsin).
Precipitation will taper off from west to east late tonight.
Winds will shift to become westerly, then northwesterly on
Friday. Expect highs ranging from the low 60s in southern
Wisconsin to the mid-50s in central Wisconsin. During the
afternoon hours, isolated showers will develop along a shortwave
traveling north to south across Lake Michigan, bringing chances
(15-20%) of precipitation to central and southeastern
Wisconsin. Precipitation ends late Friday night, with lows
around freezing expected.

MH

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 330 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Saturday through Thursday:

First potential for winter weather develops on Saturday as a
low pressure system digs from the northern Plains into northern
Illinois, drawing in cooler air from the Canadian Prairies and
placing wrap-around precipitation bands across northern Illinois
and southern Wisconsin. Expecting temperatures to remain above
freezing throughout the day, but a mix of rain and snow is
certainly possible across central Wisconsin where wet-bulb
temperatures are lower and the column is saturated. Going into
the evening hours however, temperatures will quickly cool as
winds shift to northerly and low pressure begins to pivot
eastward. This will lead to a transition to snowfall across the
majority of southern Wisconsin. Still, very warm ground
temperatures and temperatures hovering near freezing should keep
accumulations to a minimum unless a substantial band sets up
over a localized area. Currently expecting grassy and elevated
surfaces to see generally less than an inch, with little to no
accumulations on roads.

Precipitation largely tapers off into Sunday, but continued
northerly fetch off Lake Michigan may lead to a few waves of
lake-effect snow/rain showers near the shoreline. In addition,
some modeling (notably the ECMWF and Canadian) show another
shortwave bringing more widespread snow showers to the region
into Monday. Confidence, however, remains quite low at this
time. Expecting highs in the 30s and lows in the upper teens to
low 20s Sunday and Monday nights, with a recovery into the upper
40s and low 50s for highs and near freezing for lows Tuesday
through Thursday as shortwaves moving across southern Canada
bring a return to southwesterly winds from the central Plains.

MH

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 330 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

VFR conditions and southeasterly winds will continue through
this evening. Expect gusts of 20 to 25 kt to spread eastward
through the evening hours, remaining elevated through the
overnight hours. Ahead of a cold front late tonight, expect LLWS
to increase to approximately 40 kt, before all winds in the
column shift to southwesterly. Scattered showers develop along
this front as well, bringing in MVFR ceilings late tonight. After
the cold frontal passage, expect a wind shift to west-
southwest and gusts around 20 kt. Any lingering MVFR ceilings
will lift to VFR into Friday morning, with westerly winds
gusting to 20 kt throughout Friday. Winds become light and
variable overnight Friday and ceilings remain VFR.


MH

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 330 PM CST Thu Nov 6 2025

Low pressure over southeastern North Dakota will progress
eastward into Lake Superior tonight, bringing gusty south-
southeasterly winds to Lake Michigan this evening through
tonight. A Gale Warning is in effect for the open waters from
late this evening through early Friday morning, and a Small
Craft Advisory is in effect for nearshore waters. A cold front
will cross the lake into early Friday morning, shifting winds to
westerly and bringing gusts in the 20-30 kt range. The Small
Craft Advisory remains in effect through Friday evening. Low
pressure will deepen over Ontario Friday, bringing brisk
northwesterly winds through Saturday morning. An additional low
pressure system develops over the northern Plains into Friday
night, progressing southward into Illinois Saturday. Gales may
develop again Sunday across the southern half of the open waters
as this low deepens over Illinois. Northwesterly winds slowly
weaken through Monday, becoming southwesterly into Tuesday as
low pressure progresses across Ontario. Gales are possible once
again on Tuesday.

MH

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Gale Warning...LMZ080-LMZ261-LMZ362-LMZ364-LMZ366-LMZ563-
     LMZ565-LMZ567-LMZ669-LMZ671-LMZ673-LMZ675-LMZ777-LMZ779-
     LMZ868-LMZ870-LMZ872-LMZ874-LMZ876-LMZ878...8 PM Thursday
     to 6 AM Friday.

     Small Craft Advisory...LMZ643-LMZ644-LMZ645-LMZ646 until 6 PM
     Friday.

&&

$$

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