713
FXUS65 KPUB 282038
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
238 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Scattered to numerous showers spreads across south central and
  southeast Colorado tonight, with locally heavy rainfall possible.

- High impact system on track to bring periods of heavy rain, the
  potential for flash flooding, strong winds, and high mountain snow
  across southern Colorado Tuesday night through Thursday,

- Warmer and Drier weather for Friday into early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

Current water vapor imagery and upper air analysis has moderate southwest
flow aloft across the region, as an upper trough continues to dig across
the West Coast at this time. Water vapor imagery is also indicating
Hurricane Polo spinning off the central California Baja coast, with abundant
subtropical moisture continuing to spread across Old Mexico into the Desert
Southwest and Southern Rockies at this time.

Current forecast remains on track through the day Tuesday, as an ejecting
short wave ahead of the West Coast/Great Basin system spreads scattered to
numerous showers, and a few embedded thunderstorms, across south central and
southeast Colorado tonight. Showers and storms diminish from west to east
through the day Tuesday, bringing a brief lull in precipitation, as we wait
for a stronger system developing across the Desert Southwest. With the
abundant moisture in place, PWATs running 150 to 200 percent of normal,
locally heavy rainfall is expected, leading to possible flash flooding,
especially across the eastern San Juan mountains, with the enhanced southwest
orographics aiding in precipitation. Cloudy and cool conditions are expected
with the precipitation through the day, with the potential for a few inches
of snow across the highest peaks, generally above 12,000 feet.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 235 PM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

While models continue to differ on the details, specifically on the ingestion
of extra-tropical system Polo, and its movement northward across the southern
Rockies into southeast Colorado, there is enough agreement in ensemble data
to support a high impact system affecting southern Colorado through Thursday.

Current forecast supports moist south to southwest flow aloft across the
region Tuesday night, with increasing south to southeast flow through the
day Wednesday, as a strengthening upper low moves into northwest New Mexico.
This will bring widespread light to moderate rain across southern Colorado
Tuesday night with moderate to heavy deformation banded precipitation
spreading across south central and southeast Colorado through the day
Wednesday and Wednesday night, as the upper low continues across northern
New Mexico. Widespread precipitation then winds down northwest to southeast
through the day Thursday, as the deformation band lifts north and east into
the Central High Plains. The movement of this system, and its developing
surface low reflection, will also develop gusty northerly gradient winds of
20 to 40 mph, with locally stronger gusts across eastern Colorado later
Wednesday afternoon and Wednesday night, which could bring enhanced
orographic precipitation to the Palmer Divide and Pikes Peak region, as well
as the southern Sangres and Raton Mesa.

With that said, we have expanded flash flood watches in coverage and time
across most of south central and southeast Colorado, with current forecast
of 2 to 4 inches of liquid qpf, greatest across the southeast mountains
and adjacent plains over the 3 day period. For the flash flooding threat, the
lack of instability and its associated enhancement on precipitation rates,
is a concern, however, the shear amount of moisture (PWATs progged up to 250
percent of normal), dynamics, upslope and warm rain processes look to support
locally heavy rain and rates up to inch or more inch an hour at times. This
combined, with the long duration and expected increasing saturated soils,
especially across the southeast plains, which have already seen 2 to 4 inches
of rain this month, will support flash flooding, along with quickly rising
flows in streams and rivers across the area. The Aspen Acres fire area will
also be susceptible to flash flooding and mud flows, with the potential for
fallen trees, as the gusty northerly winds develop later Wednesday. Latest
model data also supports several inches of higher elevation (at or above
12,000 feet) through Thursday.

We will continue to monitor the track of this developing storm system,
with potentially higher impacts, if it tracks more north than currently
forecast, as well as lesser possible impacts, if it goes further south.
Either way, people should remain weather aware through Thursday, and have
multiple ways to receive weather warnings, especially those in flood prone
areas.

By Friday and into the weekend, warm and drier air within more westerly flow
works back into the region, as upper level ridging builds back across the
Great Basin and into the Rockies. This leads to a slow warming and drying
trend, as there may be enough residual moisture to support isolated afternoon
convection over the higher terrain.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1134 AM MDT Mon Sep 28 2026

KCOS, KPUB, and KALS: MVFR to IFR conditions are expected over the
next 24 hours. A highly dynamic storm pattern will start to push
across the region. This will bring, one, significant cloud cover to
the region. As cloud cover progressively increases and lowers, MVFR
to IFR ceiling heights are expected at all three TAFs and through at
least tomorrow. Secondly, widespread rain showers are anticipated,
with impacts also at all three TAF sites. These rain showers are
likely to bring periods of reduced visibility, with at least a drop
to MVFR visibility restrictions expected. Along with that, isolated
instances of lightning and thunder will be possible, though
confidence is low, less than 20%, in this. Otherwise, the strongest
winds are expected early in the TAF period this afternoon, with
gusty winds up to around 20 knots anticipated, especially for KALS
and KCOS. Winds are expected to lessen heading into the evening, and
remain at or less than 10 knots through the remainder of this TAF
period.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through late Tuesday night for COZ067-068.
Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Wednesday evening for
COZ069>071.
Flood Watch from Tuesday morning through Thursday morning for
COZ072>075-077>080-083-086>089-093>099.
Flood Watch from Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning
for COZ076-081-082-084-085.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MW
LONG TERM...MW
AVIATION...SIMCOE