503
FXUS65 KPUB 200151
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
751 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Burn scar flash flooding and marginally severe storms possible
this evening.

- Daily afternoon showers and storms will continue into early
  next week, along with slowly warming temperatures.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 747 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Quick update to the forecast grids for expiration of the Flash
Flood Watch across the Aspen Acres burn scar. Convection
coverage and intensity is decreasing for the most part, though
there is some storm activity to the north that needs monitoring.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Currently...

A few showers have already formed over the higher terrain as of 1pm.
Latest mesoanalysis shows 2000+ J/kg of surface-based CAPE along and
east of the mountains, though there is a bit of a cap in place that
may keep things from intensifying for a few more hours. Meanwhile,
30-40 knots of effective bulk shear is in place, though with the
best conditions just slightly north of our area.

Rest of Today and Tonight...

Storms will continue forming over and near the mountains this
afternoon, before spreading southeast and intensifying into tonight.
Main concern will initially be flash flooding, particularly over the
Aspen Acres burn scar, due to heavy rain. As storms move east, they
will enter more unstable air and intensify, becoming strong to
severe. Outflow winds to 60 mph and hail to 1.5 inches will be
possible, along with heavy rain and flash flooding for urban and low-
lying areas. Storms will continue for a few hours after sunset,
though most of the CAMs have the last of the activity dissipating by
around midnight. That could push a bit longer if we get any stronger
outflow interactions, but at this time the chance isn`t very high.

Thursday...

Upper ridge will continue building in over the region on Thursday.
The plains will be a bit warmer, with highs in the mid-90s, while
the valleys remain in the 80s. Less available moisture and a lack of
large-scale forcing will keep afternoon convection tied to the
mountains, with mostly scattered POPs aside from the San Juans and
southern Sangres, which show better potential for some localized
upsloping. Moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible at times, so
we will have to continue monitoring the burn scars for flash
flooding potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 1246 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

The pattern for the long-term forecast remains consistent with
previous model runs. The upper ridge will continue dominating the
region, with the center of the high slowly shifting east through the
weekend. Temperatures will remain warm, with some areas over the
eastern plains creeping back into triple digits. Daily showers and
thunderstorms will continue each day as moisture moves around the
upper high. Most convection will be over the mountains, but the
eastern plains will see isolated to scattered storms each day as
well.

Flash flooding will still be a concern over the burn scars, as even
a brief period of moderate to heavy rainfall can cause major
impacts in these areas.

As of now, this pattern looks to persist into early next week,
though model solutions begin to diverge quickly after about Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM MDT Wed Aug 19 2026

Showers and thunderstorms will continue across the forecast area
through 02z-03z, affecting main TAF sites of KCOS, KPUB and KALS.
Variable gusty outflow winds up to 30-35 kts possible with any
storms in the vcnty. After 03z, and def by 05z, VFR conditions
anticipated across the forecast area through the remainder of the
period. SE surface flow reestablishing around 18z tomorrow for all
three sites, with VCTS mentioned for KALS after 22z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...MOORE
SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...MOORE