156
FXUS65 KPUB 290904
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
304 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A front will move in today, bringing showers and storms to the
  area. Some strong to severe storms are expected over the
  plains later in the day.

- Temps around seasonable values through the long term period.

- Scattered afternoon and evening storms, with best chance over the
higher terrain

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Today and Tonight...

Today will start off warm and dry as a broad upper high sits off to
our southwest. High temperatures will be realized early in the day,
warm but less so than yesterday, with 80s over the valleys and mid-
80s to high-90s over the eastern plains. Shortly after midday, a
shortwave disturbance will pass through the flow as an upper trough
passes to our northeast. A cold front will surge south across the
plains, likely hitting the Palmer by 1-2 PM and moving south from
there through the rest of the afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms
will fire along the mountains/plains interface, with breezy steering
flow moving things east through the afternoon and into the evening.
Most of the short-term guidance is showing the storms organizing
somewhat, with a line of convection crossing into Kansas sometime
between 9 and 11 PM or so. There is a bit of variation between the
models as far as storm organization is concerned, mainly later in
the evening, but that will change based on how much outflow
interactions we get. Severe parameters look decent as well, with 500-
900 J/kg of CAPE (depending on the model), increasing over 1000 J/kg
closer to the KS border. Even so, mid-level flow looks a bit weak,
meaning shear may not exceed 20 knots in most places. There is a
slight outlook for severe storms over portions of the far eastern
plains, and a marginal back to the southeast mountains, but the
stronger storms might be a bit more dependent on either outflow
interactions or enhanced local forcing from the passing front.
Overnight, precipitation will move off to the east, with lows in the
50s to low-60s over the plains, and 40s in the high valleys.

Monday...

With the front through, Monday will be a fair bit cooler than the
last week or so, with highs only hitting the 70s to mid-80s over the
eastern plains. Precipitation coverage will quickly increase in the
afternoon, scattered over the plains while the mountains, valleys,
and I-25 corridor will see more widespread showers and thunderstorms
through the afternoon and evening hours. Given the increased
moisture, and more organized mid-level flow, a few stronger storms
will be possible as well. Will also have to keep an eye on the burn
scars for any flash flooding related issues, which will largely
depend on how long the heavier rainfall lingers in those areas.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 301 AM MDT Sun Jun 29 2025

Tuesday through July 4th weekend...

Weather pattern through this fcst period not vary all that much.
Some days will be a bit drier than others (Wednesday) but overall
expect scattered storms in the mtns, with more isolated activity
over the plains. Temperatures will be generally seasonable through
the period with mainly U80s to M90s plains, around 80 larger valleys
and 60s and 70s mtns.

Precip in the mtns will be driven by a monsoon pattern developing
over the west, i.e., broad trough off the West Coast and dominant
ridge over the central part of the country. This pattern will bring
a broad southerly wind flow over the SW CONUS, and will bring up
moisture from old Mexico. Given this setup, there will be a chance
of some locally heavy rain at times in the mtns during this period,
and some of this precip will likely linger into the nighttime
period.

With a major holiday coming up, 4th of July, it appears at this time
scattered afternoon and evening storms will be passable over the
entire region this day. Storms do not appear to be all that strong.
Temps on the plains ranging from the 80s on the ridges and mid 90s
over the lower Ark rvr valleys, and temps around 80 in the larger
valleys with 60s and 70s mtns. Weather for the July 4th weekend
appears similar to July 4th itself. /Hodanish

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1049 PM MDT Sat Jun 28 2025

Mainly VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours at
COS, PUB and ALS. Winds to become generally light and diurnally
driven through the overnight hours. A cold front is expected to
move across the eastern plains tomorrow morning, with breezy
northerly winds developing at COS between 16Z-18Z Sunday. Front
pushes south with breezy northeast to east winds at COS and PUB
through the end of the taf period. The front will usher in low
level moisture with low end chances for thunderstorms at both
COS and PUB after 21Z Sunday, with gusty outflow winds and brief
MVFR conditions possible with storms. Chances for storms at ALS
remain too low to include in the taf, however, will see gusty
easterly winds developing at ALS aft 00Z Monday, as front
backs up across the low eastern slopes.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...GARBEROGLIO
LONG TERM...HODANISH
AVIATION...MW