515
FXUS65 KREV 170832
AFDREV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Reno NV
132 AM PDT Sun Aug 17 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Showers and isolated thunderstorms expected this afternoon with
  mild temperatures and breezy winds.

* A warming and drying trend is expected this week with hot
  conditions returning late week into the weekend.

* A monsoon pattern may result in increasing thunderstorm activity
  and heightened fire concerns late this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Minimal change in the governing weather pattern will support yet
another day of cooling with breezy winds, showers, and thunderstorms
in the afternoon. Highs today will be just about as mild as it gets
for mid-August as temperatures peak in the mid-upper 70s/80s for
Sierra and western Nevada communities, respectively. West winds
become breezy again this afternoon, but should be a skosh weaker
than yesterday and more on par with our usual zephyr breezes.

The most favorable area for showers and thunderstorms today
continues to be Lassen and N Washoe counties (20-40% chance) where
the overlap of instability and moisture is maximized. Elsewhere,
thunderstorm potential is less certain but it`s possible (10-20%
odds) that isolated t-storms extend southward to Tahoe/Reno, and
develop within the Mono-Lyon-Mineral County vicinity in the mid to
late afternoon. All activity should persist into the early evening
before ending by 9 PM PDT.

High pressure expands westward after today and anchors near the Four
Corners region into the weekend. In response, temperatures steadily
warm through Friday with daytime highs back in the upper 80s and
upper 90s by the weekend. Antecedent Pacific moisture will be
scoured out, limiting shower and thunderstorm activity Monday
through Wednesday. However, it`s becoming increasingly likely that
we`ll see our first true monsoonal moisture surge Thursday and
Friday as high pressure deviates farther west. Thunderstorm activity
likely trends upward Thursday into the weekend as a result, which
also heightens fire concerns as dry lightning potential increases.
Heat impacts may also be compounded by warm nighttime temperatures
owing to greater cloud cover. It appears that high pressure does not
breakdown until next Sunday, so these impacts may continue over the
weekend. There is still much to be sorted out so be sure to stay up-
to-date with the latest forecast this week.

-Salas

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light winds persist through the morning with W/SW
surface gusts of 20-30 kts arriving in the afternoon. Minor LLWS
impacts remain possible at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV between 23-03Z. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms are possible at KRNO-KCXP-KMEV and KMMH
this afternoon, but odds are around 10-20%. Should thunderstorm
impacts occur at these terminals, it would likely be between 22Z and
02Z.

-Salas

&&

.REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NV...None.
CA...None.
&&

$$