291
FXUS65 KABQ 111138 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
538 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 528 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

- Hot temperatures today in the lower elevations of New Mexico
  (under 7000 feet) will increase the risk of heat-related
  illnesses for those without access to adequate cooling or
  hydration.

- Gusty north winds in eastern New Mexico this afternoon and east
  winds in the Rio Grande Valley tonight will create hazardous
  crosswinds on roadways.

- Thunderstorm chances trend higher on Friday, especially over
  central and eastern New Mexico. A few storms may become severe
  in central New Mexico Friday afternoon. Rounds of showers and
  storms continue each day through Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Very dry conditions around the state along with clear skies will
result in impressive diurnal temperature changes tonight. The change
will be the most drastic in western NM where upper 40s this morning
will make way for temps in the upper 80s and low 90s in the
afternoon. The hottest temps today will be in the SE Plains where
highs are forecast to top out in the triple digits. The first Heat
Advisory of the year was issued for Roswell, where there is a 60%
chance that the high reaches 105F.

The cold front currently racing southward across Colorado and Kansas
will push into far northeastern NM around sunrise, but its progress
will be stalled in the central and northeast highlands thanks to
westerly winds aloft mixing down to the surface. North wind gusts as
high as 45 mph may occur in the eastern plains during the afternoon
hours, but blowing dust shouldn`t be a concern given the recent
rainfall. After sunset, the front will surge south and westward,
pushing through the gaps of the central mtn chain overnight.
Forecast wind gusts have trended slightly lower, but given the
timing of the frontal passage, wouldn`t be surprised if winds
outperform guidance.

Moisture in the wake of this frontal passage will provide the energy
for showers and storms on Friday afternoon. It would be a slow start
to the afternoon with low clouds blanketing eastern NM, but they
will eventually clear out and sfc heating should generate scattered
convection. Drier convection along the Cont Divide will be falling
into a dry boundary layer so rainfall will be harder to come by here
and lightning strikes will pose a threat to start new fires given
the very dry fuel conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

A weak shortwave will interact with anomalously high moisture
content on Saturday to generate another round of scattered
convection. Rain chances increase in the SW mountains, but storm
chances will once again generally favor eastern NM. Another backdoor
frontal passage Saturday night into Sunday will replenish moisture
across eastern NM, setting the stage for a more active afternoon
Sunday. Increasing westerly winds will also enhance shear, favoring
the development of at least a few severe storms and pushing low to
moderate rain chances westward all the way to the Arizona border.
The stronger westerly flow will begin to scour out moisture on
Monday and Tuesday, with rain chances trending lower from west to
east. However, the advection of dry air aloft will steepen mid-level
lapse rates in eastern NM, likely elevating the risk of severe
storms, particularly in northeast NM as storms come off the Sangre
de Cristo mountains. Drier weather is favored mid next week, but
that could be short-lived as moisture sneaks back into the area from
the south by the end of the workweek.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 528 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Light winds this morning will become a light to moderate breeze in
western and central NM during the afternoon. A backdoor cold front
will enter from the northeast later this morning, stalling out in
the eastern plains this afternoon before pushing south and west
tonight. Gusty north winds will shift around to the east in
eastern NM during the afternoon and evening. MVFR cigs will begin
to develop in far eastern NM after 06Z, lowering and expanding in
coverage across the eastern plains around 12Z tomorrow morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 127 AM MDT Thu Jun 11 2026

Westerly winds will be weaker today, but a few gusts upwards of 30
mph still may occur across western and central NM. Winds will shift
around to the north then the east in eastern NM behind a backdoor
cold front today. The frontal passage will stall out in the
highlands this afternoon, eventually surging south and westward
overnight. Moisture will increase significantly behind this front
and low clouds are likely to blanket eastern NM Friday morning.
Scattered showers and storms will develop Friday and Saturday
afternoons, with wetting rain chances favoring areas along and east
of the central mountain chain. Isolated dry convection along the
Continental Divide Friday afternoon could start new fires and
generate dry microbursts. Storm chances increase Sunday, with at
least isolated coverage extending westward to the Arizona border.

Dry westerly flow will begin to scour out the moisture from west to
east early next week, with storm chances once again limited to
eastern areas. Drier and hotter weather is likely around the middle
of next week, with west to northwest breezes prevailing.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  90  55  95  60 /   0   0   0   0
Dulce...........................  89  43  91  48 /   0   0   0   0
Cuba............................  88  53  89  57 /   0   0  10   0
Gallup..........................  91  48  92  54 /   0   0   0   0
El Morro........................  88  52  88  57 /   0   0  10   0
Grants..........................  93  53  91  58 /   0   0  10   0
Quemado.........................  89  54  90  58 /   0   0  20   0
Magdalena.......................  91  62  88  63 /   0   0  10   0
Datil...........................  89  58  87  59 /   0   0  20   0
Reserve.........................  97  53  96  55 /   0   0  10   0
Glenwood........................ 101  55  99  57 /   0   0   5   0
Chama...........................  83  43  84  48 /   0   0   5   0
Los Alamos......................  89  60  86  62 /   0   0  20  10
Pecos...........................  91  53  87  55 /   0   0  20  10
Cerro/Questa....................  88  50  85  55 /   0   0  10   0
Red River.......................  79  40  77  44 /   0   0  10   0
Angel Fire......................  82  39  80  42 /   0   0  10   0
Taos............................  91  49  88  52 /   0   0  10   0
Mora............................  88  48  83  53 /   0   5  40   5
Espanola........................  97  56  94  60 /   0   0  20   0
Santa Fe........................  91  59  88  61 /   0   0  10  10
Santa Fe Airport................  94  57  91  59 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Foothills...........  97  67  95  69 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Heights.............  97  64  96  66 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque Valley.............. 100  64  98  66 /   0   0  10  10
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  98  64  96  67 /   0   0  10  10
Belen...........................  99  62  97  64 /   0   0  10  10
Bernalillo......................  98  64  97  66 /   0   0  10  10
Bosque Farms....................  98  61  97  63 /   0   0  10  10
Corrales........................  99  64  97  67 /   0   0  10  10
Los Lunas.......................  99  63  97  64 /   0   0  10  10
Placitas........................  94  64  93  66 /   0   0  10  10
Rio Rancho......................  98  64  96  66 /   0   0  10  10
Socorro......................... 102  69  99  69 /   0   0  10  10
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  91  59  89  62 /   0   0  20  10
Tijeras.........................  92  59  91  62 /   0   0  20  10
Edgewood........................  93  57  90  59 /   0   0  20  10
Moriarty/Estancia...............  95  55  91  56 /   0   0  20  10
Clines Corners..................  90  55  86  57 /   0   0  20  20
Mountainair.....................  94  56  91  58 /   0   0  20  10
Gran Quivira....................  93  58  89  59 /   0   0  30  10
Carrizozo.......................  97  66  92  64 /   0   0  40  20
Ruidoso.........................  91  61  83  59 /   0   5  70  20
Capulin.........................  78  46  82  53 /   0   0  20   0
Raton...........................  87  48  87  52 /   0   5  20   0
Springer........................  89  50  88  54 /   0   5  20   0
Las Vegas.......................  91  53  85  56 /   0   5  30  10
Clayton.........................  83  54  87  61 /   0   5  10  20
Roy.............................  86  54  84  57 /   0   5  20  20
Conchas.........................  94  61  92  63 /   0   5  20  30
Santa Rosa......................  95  59  89  61 /   0   5  20  30
Tucumcari.......................  94  62  94  66 /   0   5  20  40
Clovis.......................... 100  65  93  66 /   0   5  20  20
Portales........................ 102  65  94  66 /   0   5  20  20
Fort Sumner.....................  99  64  93  64 /   0   5  20  20
Roswell......................... 105  70  96  68 /   0   0  30  20
Picacho......................... 100  63  90  61 /   0  10  50  30
Elk.............................  99  62  89  59 /   0  10  70  30

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM MDT this evening for
NMZ238.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...16
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...16