Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND
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339 FXUS63 KBIS 121356 AFDBIS Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Bismarck ND 856 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening, along with continued mild temperatures. - Areas of smoke from wildfires in Canada are resulting in reduced visibility today. - Low temperatures tonight in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Patchy frost possible in the Turtle Mountain area. - Near average temperatures (highs mid to upper 60s and lows near 40) expected this upcoming week, as well as near daily chances for showers and thunderstorms. && .UPDATE... Issued at 856 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Showers continue approaching western North Dakota and will likely reach the state around noon, give or take an hour or so. CAMs continue suggesting showers will remain light, which makes sense considering model forecast soundings show lot of dry air to overcome. Very little instability looks to be available this afternoon, so while a few rumbles of thunder are not out entirely of the question, thunderless showers look to prevail. UPDATE Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Overall limited updates needed this morning, yet some items worth monitoring. The wave expected to move through the state later today is currently producing some weak returns in Montana. This could be a sign that perhaps isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible this afternoon into the early evening hours. Will continue to monitor the progression of this wave to see if any adjustments are needed. Meanwhile smoke from wildfires in Canada continues to push southward and is expected to bring visibility reductions for most of the CWA this morning, perhaps improving this afternoon. This could slightly reduce high temperatures today, although will hold off on any adjustments for now. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 421 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 A weak cold front in northwest flow will continue to push across the CWA today. This will bring a near breezy northerly wind and slightly cooler, yet still above normal, temperatures in the 70s. This northerly wind could also bring some areas of wildfire smoke from Canada. Currently, visibility reductions are already being observed mainly along and north of Highway 2. HRRR smoke doing a decent job showing this smoke progressing southward through the morning, becoming more scattered this afternoon and evening. Given current observations and HRRR smoke forecast placed in smoke mention. A weak wave looks to push across the area in northwest flow this afternoon into the early evening. This could still be the focus of some isolated showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms, although dry conditions will help limit the overall chance for precipitation. Instability today is fairly limited, with the more abundant amounts coming across the southwest. Thus kept thunder mention to just these areas. Severe weather is not expected today given the limited amounts of instability. Tonight, showers and thunderstorms should diminish early in the evening. A light easterly flow looks to form at the surface, with ridging aloft. Lingering cool air behind the mentioned front could bring some cooler overnight lows in the mid 30s to mid 40s. Areas across the northeast, and especially the Turtle Mountain area, could see some patchy frost as a result. Confidence is not high enough for any sort of highlight at this time, although should be monitored closely. Monday, ridging aloft flattens with zonal flow across the area. Meanwhile a surface low lee of the northern Rockies starts to form. The result is some warming temperatures to much of the area, and some modest instability with some modest shear. CSU- MLP is showing some small chances for an isolated strong storm Monday in the west. As this low becomes more developed chances for showers and thunderstorms should return to these areas. Thus something to keep an eye out for Monday. Surface low then starts moving into ND Monday night through Tuesday, with a shortwave aloft also moving through. This will bring increased chances for showers and thunderstorms during this time period. Lows Monday night look to be in the mid 40s to lower 50s, while Tuesday`s highs cool into the 60s and lower 70s. Clusters then indicate perhaps a small break in active weather mid week as a ridge builds off the west coast. Depending how this sets up the state could see a slightly warmer less active zonal flow pattern, or the early week trough could linger longer and bring closer to normal temperatures and lingering chances for precipitation. Current forecast has near normal temperatures, with NBM PoPs keeping in at least slight chances for showers and thunderstorms through mid week. Clusters then showing the next trough pattern arrives late week perhaps into next weekend. Temperatures spreads remain large with this pattern, although are generally favoring normal temperatures. Precipitation chances will likely be in the forecast each day, although the deterministic models are showing multiple progressive waves with this pattern that could lead to breaks in precipitation, although are hard to time this far out. Low temperature spreads are not quite as big and overall showing temps at lest in the 40s, limiting any frost/freeze potential for the upcoming week. && .AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/... Issued at 635 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024 Mainly VFR conditions expected through the forecast period. Areas of smoke will push from north to south this morning, becoming less widespread this afternoon. A BKN to OVC layer may be found during passage of this smoke as well as reduced visibilities. For now kept smoke at VFR visibility and ceilings, although some brief MVFR conditions are possible. Otherwise look for northerly winds today, along with some mid to high level clouds. An isolated shower or thunderstorm is possible this afternoon and evening, although confidence is not high enough to place in the TAFs at this time. Winds will go light and transition to more easterly tonight, while sky cover becomes mainly clear. && .BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE...Telken DISCUSSION...Anglin AVIATION...Anglin