385
FXUS63 KBIS 111959
AFDBIS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Bismarck ND
259 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very strong winds expected over most of western and central
  North Dakota Thursday into Thursday evening, with gusts up to
  70 mph.

- Periods of snow are possible Thursday/Thursday night primarily
  over northern locations. Greatest chances for accumulation
  remains over and adjacent to the Turtle Mountains where 1 to
  3 inches are possible, which combined with the wind could
  significantly reduce visibility.


- Snow again develops over much of the area Saturday into early
  Sunday. Greatest chances for impacts due to snow remain along
  and south of Interstate 94.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 132 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

Current surface analysis places low along the Alberta and
Saskatchewan border while high stretches from Manitoba south-
southwestward towards the central Rockies. Upper level analysis
places trough pushing over the Pacific Northwest with west-
northwesterly flow containing a few subtle waves over and to
the west of our area. Quiet weather remains in place for us.

For tonight, aforementioned Pacific upper wave quickly pushes
east over the Rockies while surface low deepens to the lee of
the Canadian/Montana Rockies and starts to shift over the
plains. Southerly winds will become breezy late tonight ahead of
this system, with precipitation chances as mainly snow starting
to increase over the west late.

On Thursday, aforementioned short wave deepens as it slides
near the International Border, closing off towards evening. In
the meantime, surface low slides over the state, pushing over
the Red River Valley by evening. Precipitation spreads through
the area, with the initial push coming as snow. Then a
transition towards rain is expected over many locations except
the far north before the cold push of air comes behind the low.
Once the cooler air pushes in, expect a transition from north to
south back to snow for any lingering precipitation. Winds will
quickly be on the increase with this deepening low as colder air
pushes into the area. Forecast soundings over western and many
central parts of the state continue to suggest very strong winds
mixing down, so will continue to advertise gusts to 70 mph. For
the Turtle Mountains and adjacent areas, expect snow to
continue through the afternoon into the evening, with
accumulations around one to three inches. Soundings there suggest
lesser winds, but still gusting to around 50 mph which,
combined with the anticipated snow, could result in some periods
of near blizzard conditions. Precipitation will taper off
Thursday evening as the system slides east, with winds gradually
tapering off from west to east late Thursday evening through
the overnight.

Friday will see cooler temperatures and medium snow chances
mainly west and south central as another wave moves through.

Saturday will be the next day of concern as an upper trough
approaches and pushes through the region and a surface low
slides through the central plains. There remains some
uncertainty with this system, but impactful weather remains a
concern, particularly along and south of Interstate 94. Latest
NBM guidance continues to show medium probabilities (~50-70
percent chance) of seeing 4 inches or more snow over this area,
lesser as you go north. System departs the area Sunday.

Cooler temperatures stick around to start the upcoming week,
with a notable warming trend possible by mid-week. NBM guidance
does show a notable spread in possible temperatures, but the
main message is that even with that, the trend is warmer. With
that said, some precipitation chances remain in the forecast
with the warm air pushing in.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Wed Mar 11 2026

A clipper system will push into the area on Thursday. Expect
periods of snow to push through the area early Thursday
morning, with a transition to rain later in the morning. The
exception may be far northern North Dakota where precipitation
may remain as snow. This could bring periods of MVFR to IFR
visibility. Southerly winds will increase tonight, shifting west
to northwest Thursday morning and increasing. Gusts to 50 kts
will be possible over western locations late Thursday morning.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
High Wind Warning from 10 AM CDT /9 AM MDT/ to 10 PM CDT /9 PM
MDT/ Thursday for NDZ001-009-017-018-031>033-040-041-043-044.
High Wind Warning from 1 PM CDT /noon MDT/ Thursday to 1 AM
CDT /midnight MDT/ Friday for NDZ002-003-010-011-019>021-034-
035-042-045-046.
Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM Thursday to 7 AM CDT Friday
for NDZ004-005-013.
High Wind Warning from 1 PM Thursday to 4 AM CDT Friday for
NDZ012-022-023-025-036-037-047-048-050-051.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JJS
AVIATION...JJS