Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
Issued by NWS Birmingham, AL
635 FXUS64 KBMX 081108 AFDBMX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Birmingham AL 608 AM CDT Tue Jul 8 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 111 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025 Weak 500 mb ridging, marked by anticyclonically-curved flow, will extended westward across Alabama today, while a trough axis spans the Mississippi Valley. Thunderstorm activity this afternoon is expected to be relatively isolated in nature due to the lingering weak ridging. However, the approaching upper-level trough and weak height falls may support slightly greater coverage across our northwestern counties. As 500 mb height falls continue on Wednesday, rain chances should notably increase on Wednesday, particularly north of I-20, where numerous afternoon and evening thunderstorms are expected. A deficit in PWAT values south of I-20, associated with a decaying weak 500 mb ridge, should result in somewhat lower coverage of afternoon convection. 87/Grantham && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 111 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025 Gradual weak height falls will continue into Thursday as a trough axis moves into our forecast area. This will support widespread afternoon thunderstorms, and a similar scenario is expected for Friday. There are some signs of very weak 500 mb ridging making a comeback for Saturday through Monday, but rain chances could remain elevated as deep moisture lingers across the region. 87/Grantham && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 605 AM CDT TUE JUL 8 2025 Some scattered MVFR vsbys are possible briefly this morning thru ~14z. The same thing is possible for tonight after 10z. Some diurnal convection is possible this afternoon. I have a mention in the TAFs after 20z. Otherwise, with mixing outside of convection, winds should be W-WNW ~4-7kts. NOTE: AMD LTD TO CLD VIS AND WIND has been added at MGM until further notice due to comms issues. 08 && .FIRE WEATHER... A moist summertime air mass will be in place through the foreseeable future with rain chances becoming elevated for Wednesday through the weekend. 20 foot winds should remain less than 6 mph from the west and southwest. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Gadsden 94 71 92 70 / 40 20 70 40 Anniston 92 72 90 71 / 30 20 60 40 Birmingham 92 73 91 72 / 40 20 60 40 Tuscaloosa 92 74 91 73 / 40 20 60 30 Calera 92 73 90 72 / 40 20 60 30 Auburn 91 73 90 72 / 30 20 50 30 Montgomery 93 74 93 73 / 30 20 50 30 Troy 92 72 92 72 / 30 20 50 20 && .BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...87/Grantham LONG TERM....87/Grantham AVIATION...08