364
FXUS64 KBMX 131755
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1255 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

...New SHORT TERM, AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

A low pressure system will continue to move through the Ohio
Valley with southerly low level winds bringing plenty of moisture
to the area through tonight. For the rest of the day, clouds
should remain mostly overcast with high temperatures well below
normal for this time of the year in the upper 60s and lower 70s.
Though most of the area should remain rain free through much of
the afternoon and into the evening with stable cool air over the
state, a few isolated strong showers could develop in the far east
and south this afternoon into the early evening.

Overnight tonight, another wave of storms moves through the
southern half of the state. High res models have been consistent
with strongest activity remaining south of Central Alabama and
along the coast where a boundary sets up and lingers. Scattered
moderate showers are possible in areas of I20 and south, with an
isolated thunderstorm possible in the far southern counties.
Little to no instability is present, though PW values will remain
high and shear will be in the 50-60 kt range through the night.
This activity is expected to begin shortly before midnight and
last through much of the morning. Models have been consistent
today with this activity remaining weak, with the storms along the
coast cutting off most of the convection across Central Alabama.
Recent model runs have been trying to hint at isolated showers and
thunderstorms in the northern counties of Central Alabama. Will
have to see how much activity develops across the Gulf to
determine how much coverage could develop across the state
overnight.

There should be a break in coverage through mid morning and early
afternoon, with isolated to scattered convection expected again
through the afternoon and evening, mainly across the northern half
of the state. PW values will be lower with this activity, only
around the 75th percentile for this time of year, and shear will
be slightly lower around 30 to 40 kts. The redeeming factor will
be the instability between 1500 and 2000 J/kg. With these
parameters, can`t rule out strong thunderstorms with a few
possibly becoming severe. Highs Tuesday should remain a few
degrees below normal again in the mid 70s to low 80s.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 240 AM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

The main trough slides through the area and a weak shortwave will
slide along the backside of the trough across the northern
portions of the area. With it moving through during the daytime
there will be a chance of isolated to scattered showers with a few
rumbles of thunder, through the afternoon hours on Wednesday. Dry
weather on Thursday, with the next system approaching the area
from the southwest late Thursday afternoon, with increasing rain
chances overnight Thursday night. Showers and storms will become
widespread on Friday with quite a bit of rain expected. Some model
differences right now on how many rounds of moderate to heavy
rain we can expect, but right now we may see 1 to 2 inches from
Thursday night through Friday night, with locally higher totals,
especially in the south. Wet conditions may linger into Saturday,
but most of the heavier activity will be south of the area. After
Saturday, models are all over the place with another shortwave
moving through or high pressure setting up, so will go with
climate for Sunday.

16

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1235 PM CDT MON MAY 13 2024

Several waves of showers and thunderstorms will continue through
the state, with the next wave expected overnight through the early
morning. Low level moisture is expected to increase and lower
ceilings to IFR this afternoon through the end of the TAF period
tomorrow. With low levels so saturated, any strong shower or
thunderstorm that moves across the area could produce rainfall and
limit ceilings and visibilities even further.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain with embedded thunderstorms will overspread Central Alabama
this morning and continue on and off through Tuesday afternoon,
before dissipating in coverage Tuesday night. 20 ft winds will be
southeast 7-10 mph today with Minimum RH values at 70-75 percent.
20 ft winds on Tuesday will be west-southwest at 7-10 mp with
Minimum RH values at 60-70 percent. Isolated to scattered
showers/storms will be possible Wednesday afternoon across the
northeastern areas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     63  75  60  79 /  50  80  40  20
Anniston    63  76  62  80 /  50  70  40  20
Birmingham  65  76  63  80 /  60  70  30  10
Tuscaloosa  67  80  63  82 /  60  70  10  10
Calera      65  77  63  81 /  60  70  20  10
Auburn      63  76  64  81 /  60  70  30  10
Montgomery  66  79  64  84 /  70  80  20   0
Troy        65  80  65  85 /  80  80  20   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....16
AVIATION...24