302
FXUS61 KCAR 110029
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
829 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A trough approaches from the west this evening and moves through
the area Friday. High pressure will cross the region Saturday
then begin to exit across the Maritimes Sunday. A cold front
will slowly cross the region Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
815PM Update...
A nearly stationary line of showers and thunderstorms has
developed from the Somerset/Aroostook County border into Quebec.
Long, skinny CAPE profiles and moderate to high PWATs around 1.4
inches will continue to support heavy rain and potential for
localized flash flooding over the North Woods this evening.
Minor adjustments were made to fog and sky cover, and heavy
rain wording was added to the North Woods with this update.

Previous Discussion...
An upper-level trough is currently positioned to the west of the
area and continues to progress east. Large-scale ascent
in combination with a surface trough is currently providing the
necessary forcing for the development of showers and storms just
to the west of Maine. These storms are expected to move into the
North Woods and strengthen in an environment characterized by
surface based instability of up to 1000 J/kg and 20-30 kts of
effective bulk shear. This could result in the development of a
few strong storms which may produce gusty winds.

Storms should decrease in intensity this evening as the
boundary layer stabilizes. Scattered showers and possibly some
thunderstorms are expected to persist tonight. Went lower than
NBM for thunder given the limited elevated instability. Fog is
expected to develop tonight as well due to the moist and stable
low levels, primarily over the coast, Interior Downeast, and
Central Highlands up through the North Woods.

Some breaks in the clouds are expected early tomorrow before
another round of showers and thunderstorms develop on Friday,
primarily over the north and west. With the lack of a strong
surface boundary initiating storms CAMs have had a difficult
time discerning exactly when and where storms fire but there is
decent agreement in scattered storm coverage during the
afternoon hours. Surface based instability around 1000 J/kg and
bulk shear near 30 kts should allow for a few strong storm
clusters that may produce some damaging wind. Storms weaken in
the evening as the heating shuts off. Some patchy fog may
develop, especially in areas that have received rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Surface ridging, along with a building upper ridge, will bring
generally partly sunny skies Saturday. However, low clouds/fog are
also possible Downeast early which should eventually erode and
retreat back across the Gulf of Maine. Surface high pressure begins
to exit across the Maritimes Saturday night, with ridging extending
westward back across the forecast area. Aloft, the upper ridge also
begins to exit across the Maritimes while an upper level disturbance
approaches late. Generally expect partly cloudy skies across much of
the forecast area Saturday night. However, low clouds/fog could
again move inland from the Gulf of Maine. The upper level
disturbance should begin to cross the region Sunday. Low
clouds/fog are possible early. Otherwise generally expect partly
sunny skies. With support from diurnal heating, could also have
a slight chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms across
mostly northern areas. Near normal, to slightly above normal,
level temperatures are expected Saturday/Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A slight chance/chance of showers and thunderstorms could persist
across mostly northern areas Sunday night. Otherwise, expect
partly/mostly cloudy skies. A cold front should begin to
approach Monday with a chance of showers/thunderstorms. The
front could stall across the region, while weakening, Tuesday.
At the same time, an upper level disturbance is also possible.
Expect a chance of showers/thunderstorms will persist Tuesday.
The remnants of the weakening front could help support the
slight chance of a shower/thunderstorm Wednesday. Otherwise,
expect mostly/partly sunny skies. A cold front could begin to
approach Thursday, though the timing is still uncertain.
Dependent on the timing of the cold front, could have a chance
of showers/thunderstorms Thursday. Near normal level
temperatures are expected Monday. Above normal level
temperatures are expected Tuesday through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NEAR TERM: Aroostook Terminals...Mainly VFR conditions the rest
of this evening although possible MVFR in any rain showers. FVE
has an isolated chance of a T-storm tonight, but confidence was
not high enough to include in the 0z TAF. Conditions
deteriorate to MVFR after midnight in lowering clouds.

BGR...Conditions deteriorate to IFR tonight in low clouds and
possibly fog, but should improve to MVFR/VFR Friday.

BHB...LIFR tonight in fog and low clouds. An improvement to
MVFR should occur Friday.

All Terminals...Light and variable winds tonight. Light S wind
Friday, then light and variable Friday night. Patchy fog also
possible Friday night.

SHORT TERM:
Saturday...IFR/LIFR early with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise,
VFR. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Saturday night...IFR/LIFR with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR. South/southeast winds 5 to 10 knots.

Sunday...IFR/LIFR early with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR with the slight chance of an afternoon shower
or thunderstorm mostly north. South/southeast winds 10 to 15 knots.

Sunday night...IFR/LIFR with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise,
VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers/thunderstorms mostly north. South
winds 5 to 10 knots.

Monday through Tuesday...Variable conditions with any showers or
thunderstorms. Also, with any low clouds or fog. Otherwise,
generally VFR. South winds 10 to 15 knots Monday. Southwest/west
winds 5 to 10 knots Monday night. Variable winds 5 to 10 knots
Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Beach Hazards Statement is in effect from 8 AM
Friday morning until 8 PM Friday night given the cold waters
despite mild air temperatures.

Winds and seas remain below small craft advisory levels through
Friday night. Patchy fog is expected to persist over the waters
through Friday night as well.

SHORT TERM: Winds/seas below small craft advisory levels Saturday
through Sunday. Patchy fog Saturday through Sunday.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Beach Hazards Statement from Friday morning through Friday
     evening for MEZ029-030.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...Melanson/MStrauser
Short Term...Norcross
Long Term...Norcross
Aviation...Melanson/MStrauser/Norcross
Marine...Melanson/Norcross