Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME

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000
FXUS61 KCAR 270129
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
929 PM EDT Tue Mar 26 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front approaches overnight and crosses the region
Wednesday. Low pressure will approach Thursday, cross the Gulf
of Maine Friday, then exit across the Maritimes Saturday through
Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
9:29 PM Update: Other than some drizzle in spots Downeast, most
of the FA is currently dry. Rain chances will increase
overnight as an inverted surface trough remains across the
region. Patchy fog from the Millinocket area south will also
develop across northern areas overnight as the lower level
moisten up. The 00Z Caribou sounding showed quite a bit of dry
air below 900 millibars. Did drop the winter weather advisory
for the western zones as temps got well into the 40s this
afternoon, and area radars are not indicating that there is
going to be much, if any, precipitation during the next few to
several hours. Otherwise, no significant changes at this time.

Previous discussion:
An inverted trof extending north from low pressure well to the
south will remain across the region tonight through Wednesday. A
warm front will also approach later Wednesday. The inverted
trof will focus moisture across the region. The approaching warm
front will provide additional lift Wednesday. Precipitation
will expand north across the region tonight. However, dry air
with retreating high pressure will slow the arrival of
precipitation across northern areas. Generally expect
precipitation in the form of rain tonight. However, pockets of
light freezing rain are possible across northwest areas where a
Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect. Any ice accumulations
are expected to be less than a tenth of an inch. Patchy fog is
possible across the region later tonight into Wednesday. With
the exception of any pockets of early light freezing rain across
northwest areas, expect precipitation in the form of rain
Wednesday. Low temperatures tonight will range from the lower to
mid 30s north, to the mid 30s Downeast. High temperatures
Wednesday will range from the lower to mid 40s north, to the mid
40s Downeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Wednesday night, an occluded front associated with the surface
low near Hudson Bay will approach the area. This front will
remain fairly stationary through Thursday, as the upper level
trough moves eastward and deepens. During this period a low will
develop along the front and move northward into southern Maine.
Ahead of the surface low, the remains of the occluded front
will become more of an inverted trough as the upper level trough
becomes more negatively tilted, enhancing lift ahead of the
surface low. The end result is a prolonged period of
precipitation, with enhanced precip rates beginning Thursday and
heading and Friday. Total QPF amounts during this period will
range from 0.75" near the Canadian border, to near 2.5" over
Interior Downeast and the Downeast Coast. With the main cold
front remaining back to the west, this precip is expected to
fall as all rain across the forecast area. Recent snowfall will
have melted somewhat, but melt will continue to be enhanced by
rainfall and warm temps/dewpoints ahead of this system. This
raises some concerns for elevated water levels toward the
weekend, which will be discussed more in the hydro section. The
water table will be high from the start, so ponding and poor
drainage is likely to be a problem even before the heaviest
rainfall occurs.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As the surface low winds up and baroclinicity increases, more
cold air filters in on the backside of the low and there is some
chance of a switch to snow on Friday night. However, the
heaviest QPF will be on the warm side of the system, so snowfall
accumulation is expected to be minor, and may be limited to the
western portion of the forecast area. This will not be a repeat
of last weekend, and the main concern for weather impacts
should be focused on the expected rainfall and snowmelt on
Thursday and Friday. Cold air advection and the tightening
surface gradient will cause surface winds to increase on
Saturday. This should help things dry out a little bit, but it
will be quite blustery.

After Saturday, the weather will become a little more stable as
an upper level ridge moves overhead. Temperatures on Sunday and
Monday will be seasonably cool, but by Tuesday, return flow will
begin to impact the state and a slow warm up will return.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NEAR TERM: MVFR across northern areas, with MVFR/IFR Downeast.
IFR/LIFR regionwide overnight through Wednesday. Rain and patchy
fog tonight through Wednesday. East/northeast winds 5 to 10
knots overnight and variable winds 5 to 10 knots Wednesday. Low
level wind shear overnight into Wednesday morning.

SHORT TERM:

Wednesday night and Thursday...IFR tempo LIFR due
to cigs/fog/drizzle. Light and variable winds.

Thursday night...IFR tempo LIFR due to cigs/rain. Winds
becoming NW 5 to 10 kt.

Friday...IFR cigs/vis in rain. NW winds 10 to 15 kt.

Friday night...IFR vis due to snow north of GNR and HUL.
Possible LIFR in snow late. MVFR tempo IFR due to rain/cigs for
BGR and BHB. Northwest winds 15 to 25 kt.

Saturday...IFR becoming MVFR in the afternoon mainly due to cigs
in the north. MVFR in the morning for BGR and BHB, becoming VFR
in afternoon. NW winds 15 to 30 kt.

Saturday night and Sunday...VFR. NW winds 15 to 25 kt.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the
waters tonight through Wednesday. Rain and patchy fog tonight
into Wednesday.

SHORT TERM: Winds increasing to greater than 25 kts Friday,
then becoming gale forecast by Friday afternoon. Winds falling
below gale force by midday Saturday, but remaining above 25 kts
until Sunday afternoon. Seas 3 to 5 feet, building to 6 to 8
feet on Friday, then subsiding below 5 feet gradually by Sunday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The heavy snow pack from this weekend is expected to melt
somewhat before heavy rains at the end of the week accelerate
the melting process. The snowpack is not quite ripe for melt
yet, but with heavy rainfall and somewhat saturated soils,
standing water could be an issue before water enters the main
stem rivers. In the north, main stem rivers will mostly be able
to absorb the additional input, but in the south, the
Piscataquis and Mattawamkeag are at risk for reaching minor
flood level by this weekend. The Penobscot will be slightly less
impacted, but some points on the lower reaches could reach
action stage. In the far north, the additional water input may
be enough to finally move the ice on the Saint John.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Wednesday for ANZ050>052.

&&

$$


Near Term...CB/Norcross
Short Term...LF
Long Term...LF
Aviation...CB/Norcross/LF
Marine...CB/Norcross/LF
Hydrology...LF


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