035
FXUS61 KCAR 130719
AFDCAR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Caribou ME
319 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits across the Maritimes Monday. A storm system
approaches from the west Monday night and Tuesday, crosses the
region Wednesday, then exits across the Maritimes Thursday. High
pressure builds in Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
An upper low over the area will slowly drift east into the
Maritimes today and fill. In its place, a shortwave upper ridge
will build eastward over the area today and crest over the
forecast area tonight. The upper ridge will bring subsidence
and warming to the area today. As a result, inland temperatures
will surge into the mid to upper 60s inland today. A few 70F
readings cannot be ruled out. The exception will be on the coast
where onshore winds will limit highs closer to 60F.

The air mass remains very dry and have reduced dew points and
relative humidity. The dry air mass will also produce another
very deep mixed layer that should produce high temps on the high
side of guidance. In fact, today will be one of the warmest days
of the year to date for inland locations.

In terms of clouds, fair weather cumulus will develop for the
afternoon. Thicker clouds arrive tonight ahead of the
approaching warm front. The increasing clouds and strengthening
south winds led to Monday low temperatures dropping no lower
than the low to mid 40s.

Precip with the warm front will likely hold off until early
Tuesday morning for the western edge of the forecast area.
At the same time, increasing humidity could result in some fog
by early Tuesday morning...mostly in higher terrain of
Piscataquis County and along the Hancock County coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The aforementioned warm front will lift through the area on
Tuesday, while a cold frontal boundary approaches from the
northwest. This will set up a zone of rain from the Central
Highlands to the north and west. Amounts up to 0.30 inches are
possible during the day Tuesday in the North Woods. Less rain to
the south and east, but showers and drizzle will still be
possible. Although dew points will rise into the 50s, onshore
flow, clouds, and precipitation will limit highs to the upper
50s to lower 60s. Patchy to areas of fog are expected across the
area on Tuesday and Tuesday night.

The boundary will slowly shift southward Tuesday night into
Wednesday, with weak waves riding along it. Kept likely PoPs for
rain in place through Wednesday for much of the area, with high
chance of showers far northwest and at the coast. PoPs begin to
decrease Wednesday night. However, there is still some
uncertainty as to how fast things dry out. Thus, kept chance
PoPs through the night. Patchy fog will be possible once again
Wednesday night. Highs on Wednesday will mainly be in the upper
50s to lower 60s. Lows both nights in the 40s to near 50
degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Ridging will begin to build towards the area on Thursday.
However, there will still be enough upper troughing nearby for
the threat of at least a few showers on Thursday. However, there
will be a bit more sunshine than previous days, resulting in
warmer temperatures. The ridging will build in Thursday night
and Friday, reducing the shower threat. Not out of the question
that many places away from the coast reach or exceed 70 degrees
on Friday. The only fly in the ointment as a weak shortwave
passing north of the area on Friday. This could bring some
clouds and an afternoon shower or two. Models continue to
disagree on the timing of a system over the weekend along with
threats of showers. That said, temperatures remain above normal
through the weekend.


&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NEAR TERM: VFR through late tonight at all sites. IFR cigs are
likely to move northward into BGR and BHB by late tonight into
early Tuesday morning. LLWS is possible by early Tuesday
morning.

SHORT TERM:
Tuesday-Wednesday night...MVFR/IFR in rain and patchy/areas of
fog at times. S 5-15kts with gust to near 25kts on Tuesday,
then S 5-10kts Tuesday night/Wednesday becoming N 5-10kts late
Wednesday night over Aroostook terminals.

Thursday-Friday...Mainly VFR with ocnl MVFR cigs with -SHRA.
BCFG at Coastal Terminals Thu AM and Fri AM. NNE 5-10kts
Aroostook terminals, E-SE SE5-10kts Downeast Thursday/Thursday
evening, then E-NE 5-15kts Friday.

&&

.MARINE...
NEAR TERM: South winds develop this morning and slowly
strengthen tonight with some gusts to around 15 kt. Seas slowly
build today into tonight to around 3 feet by early Tuesday.
Humid air moving over the cold waters stands likely to generate
at least some patchy fog by late Monday night into Tuesday
morning.  This stability also led to reductions in model winds.


SHORT TERM: Winds and seas build to borderline Small Craft
Advisory levels on the outer waters Tuesday night. Conditions on
the Intra-Coastal waters remain below SCA criteria. Winds and
seas subside to sub-SCA for Wednesday. Wave heights could build
above Small Craft Advisory criteria Thursday into Friday. Fog
and rain will reduce visibility on the waters at times Tuesday
night through Thursday night.

&&

.CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$


Near Term...MCW
Short Term...Clark
Long Term...Clark
Aviation...MCW/Clark
Marine...MCW/Clark