808
FXUS62 KCHS 301441
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1041 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will prevail through much of the week. A weak
disturbance will move through today and Wednesday, then a weak
cold front will stall in the vicinity this weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Today: Aloft, a mid-upper level ridge will be forced further
offshore as h5 shortwave energy progresses eastward across the
Southeast United States this afternoon. At the sfc, a lee side
trough will develop across the Midlands/Upstate while the local
area remains along the western fringes of Atlantic high pressure.
The pattern will result in mainly dry conditions into early
afternoon, before h5 shortwave energy arrives late day. A
southerly sfc wind will start to advection greater moisture
across the region this afternoon (PWATs 1.25-1.50 inches) while
ample sfc heating under thin cirrus leads to afternoon highs in
the low-mid 80s away from the beaches. Instability remains
modest mid afternoon, but a few showers can not be ruled out
near the vicinity of a seabreeze circulation moving inland. By
late afternoon, greater precip chances arrive across far inland
locations, where greatest moisture/instability aligns with h5
shortwave energy approaching from the west. Convection should
remain somewhat disorganized given modest CAPE and bulk shear.
However, a few stronger thunderstorms can not be ruled out well
inland when forcing and moisture convergence becomes enhanced as
the shortwave encounters the local seabreeze by early evening.
Gusty winds and small hail will be the main concerns should a
stronger thunderstorm occur. The highest chances for convection
should remain along and west of I-95, where 30-45% PoPs remain
in the forecast.

Tonight: The h5 shortwave passes through the forecast area, reaching
near the coast or offshore by Wednesday morning. The lee trough
remains in place, while the western side of the Atlantic ridge pulls
a bit further out to sea. There is just enough instability and ample
moisture for the shortwave to work with, so chance PoPs remain for
much of the night. Although with the passage of the shortwave,
probabilities drop off across Georgia late. The nocturnal environment
is not conducive for severe storms after the early evening.

There are indications of some fog forming across parts of Georgia
after midnight. But with perhaps too much lingering cloud cover, we
refrained from including in the forecast at this time. Given the
cloud cover, overnight lows should be more mild than previous
nights, generally in the lower 60s inland to mid-upper 60s closer to
the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A few showers could move through the Charleston Tri-County area
Wednesday morning in association with the tail end of the upper
shortwave. Weak upper level subsidence will develop during the
afternoon as shortwave ridging occurs. However, moderate
moisture will remain in place during the afternoon, and a decent
sea breeze will develop, potentially popping isolated showers.

Deep layered ridging Thursday into Friday should maintain dry
weather with above normal temperatures. A shortwave could
approach far western areas late Friday afternoon so it`s
possible some convection could drift into those zones late in
the day. Highs will reach the mid to upper 80s both days.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A relatively zonal flow will develop Friday night and continue
into early next week, with occasional shortwaves rippling
through. A weak cold front is forecast to stall across far
inland areas over the weekend. Tropical moisture will spread
into the area with PWATs hovering around 1.7" much of the
period. Isolated to scattered mainly diurnal convection is
expected, along with above normal temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KCHS/KJZI/KSAV: VFR will prevail at all sites through 12Z
Wednesday. There will be a few showers off the coast of KJZI
during the late morning and early afternoon, as they remain
offshore. Upstream from all terminals, scattered SHRA/TSRA will
occur during the mid and late afternoon, eventually progressing
east tonight. While flight restrictions are possible should any
directly impact a terminal, probabilities are too low to show
anything in the latest TAFs. All airfields will experience some
wind gusts of 15-20 kt in wake of the sea breeze after 18-19Z.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR will generally prevail.

&&

.MARINE...
Today and Tonight: High pressure centered across the western
Atlantic will extend toward the Southeast Coast while a trough
develops and remains inland. The pattern will favor a southerly sfc
wind around 15 kt or less across all local waters today and tonight
with the exception of the Charleston Harbor this afternoon, where 20
kt gusts are possible near a seabreeze circulation developing, then
shifting inland. Seas will range between 2-4 ft, largest across
offshore Georgia waters. Mariners should remain alert for thunderstorms
later today, but mainly this evening and/or tonight, with a few
potentially resulting in gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes.

Wednesday through Sunday, no marine concerns expected. Atlantic
high pressure will remain the dominant feature with a relatively
weak gradient in the area. Wind speeds will generally stay below
10 kt except right along the coast in the afternoon sea breeze,
and seas will mostly run 2-3 ft.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...DPB
SHORT TERM...JRL
LONG TERM...JRL
AVIATION...
MARINE...DPB