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000
FXUS64 KLZK 280745
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
245 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

CURRENTLY:

As of 2AM CDT, a MCS or strong to severe squall line of
thunderstorms continues to extend across Missouri, Kansas, Oklahoma,
and Texas which is approaching the Arkansas border. At the present
time, winds of 60-70 mph and isolated QLCS tornadoes continue to
occupy this activity as it nears the Arkansas border. A gradual
weakening of this activity is forecast to begin over the next couple
of hours before the line begins to weaken considerably by daybreak
across western Arkansas.

TODAY (SUNDAY):

An upper lvl closed low is positioned over the Central Plains region
of the CONUS with an elongated trof that extends over Oklahoma and
Arkansas. Within this trof base is a 55 to 65 knot jet axis that
will eject through the base of the trof during the day on Sunday.
The right front entrance of this jet axis will be positioned
directly over southwestern Arkansas which will promote ascent.

At the sfc, a low pressure center will be positioned across Nebraska
which will track northeastward into Iowa during the day with an
attendant cold front extending back southward across Iowa, Missouri,
Kansas, and Oklahoma. Attached to this cold front in Oklahoma will
be a dryline that will extend southward across Oklahoma and Texas
just east of the I-35 corridor. The aforementioned sfc features in
place will open up a broad warm sector with a moisture-rich and warm
parameter space that will favor an unstable atmosphere. Current
model trends have dewpoint temperatures progged in the mid to upper
60s over the entire state of Arkansas with temperatures Sunday
afternoon in the low 70s to mid 80s across the state.

Although a squall line of showers and thunderstorm activity will be
ongoing during the early morning hours across western Arkansas, this
MCS overall is expected to quickly weaken and fall apart after day
break with strong southerly winds advecting moisture and warm
temperatures back into the state via Louisiana and creating a
parameter space that will be re-destabilized and present an enhanced
risk of severe weather over western Arkansas. Redevelopment of
thunderstorms are expected on Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening
in far eastern Oklahoma to far western Arkansas which all storm
modes will be possible from discrete supercells, clusters of
convection, and eventually a linear mode of storms that will sweep
eastward across the state Arkansas.

The enhanced parameter space overall will favor all modes of severe
weather with all necessary ingredients in place for each hazard:
damaging wind gusts of 60 to 70+ mph, large hail to the size of golf
balls with the possibility of some larger hailstones, and a few
tornadoes including a couple that may become strong (especially
across southwestern Arkansas).

A secondary threat of severe weather often forgotten about will be
the possibility of flash flooding as portions of the state may see
an additional 2 to 4 inches of rainfall with a few isolated areas
experiencing more than 4 inches of rainfall.

MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT:

The cold front will make partial progress into the state of Arkansas
during the day on Monday and rain will end from west to east across
the state throughout the day. Expect a few areas of rain and
thunderstorms throughout the day will all rain ending by late
Tuesday night across the entire CWA.

Temperatures over the short-term forecast period will be slightly
warmer than climatological normals for this time of the year with
respect to both low and high temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

Perturbed upper flow wl be in place acrs the Cntrl US early in the
PD, w/ a deepening trof extending acrs the N/Wrn US and Nrn
periphery of the Cont Divide. Locally, a stagnant warm and moist
airmass wl be in place acrs the Mid-South and greater extent of the
FA, w/ a stationary frnt positioned from W to E acrs the AR/MO
border region, demarcating cooler and drier air acrs Srn MO. Upper
level flow is set to weaken as ridging builds over the Srn Cntrl US,
and the stronger polar jet recedes Nwrd towards the US/Canada
border. Rain chances on Tues wl be largely diurnal isolated in
nature.

Wed thru Thurs, the aforementioned Pac-N/W upper low wl begin to
move Ewrd acrs the Cont Divide, and dig further S/Wrd into the Srn
Plains, w/ mean S/Wrly H500 flow overspreading the Srn Cntrl US. A
broad region of lee cyclonic sfc flow is set to develop under the
approaching trof. Stronger low-lvl ascent invof the developing sfc
low, and broad WAA/isentropic ascent wl drive more widespread PoPs
Wed and Thurs, including scattered thunderstorms.

Late in the PD, Fri, long range guidance remains indicative of the
trailing cdfrnt, asctd w/ the deepening sfc low, moving thru the
Plains and approaching the FA, sometime Fri mrng to aftn.
Uncertainties remain on timing and evolution of the frnt for now,
however, another round of scattered to widespread thunderstorms
along and ahead of the frnt wl be possible Fri into Sat if fcst
patterns cont to remain consistent. In the wake of the cdfrnt, sfc
high pressure wl settle over the region heading into the weekend,
and drier condns should prevail.

Expect warm and muggy condns thru most of the long term PD, w/ daily
high and low temps residing above normal values. Late in the PD,
towards next weekend, cooler and less humid condns are currently
fcst, as a cdfrnt is progged to move thru the FA.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024

All sites will begin the forecast period in VFR flight category.
Expect surface wind gusts at all sites in excess of 25 knots through
the entire day on Sunday. Multiple rounds of showers and
thunderstorms will impact the terminals of KHRO, KBPK, KLIT, KHOT,
KADF, and KPBF beginning Sunday morning and lasting throughout the
day. CIGS and VSBY during this period will drop to as low as MVFR
for CIGS and IFR for VSBY, especially within stronger thunderstorm
activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     79  63  76  59 /  60 100  70  10
Camden AR         82  63  78  59 /  50 100  70  10
Harrison AR       74  57  77  55 /  90  90  10   0
Hot Springs AR    79  62  80  60 /  80 100  40  10
Little Rock   AR  81  66  79  62 /  50  90  60  10
Monticello AR     84  67  75  62 /  30  80  90  20
Mount Ida AR      79  60  81  57 /  90 100  30   0
Mountain Home AR  76  59  78  55 /  80 100  20   0
Newport AR        81  64  73  60 /  40  90  80  10
Pine Bluff AR     82  65  75  61 /  40  90  90  10
Russellville AR   78  61  80  58 /  80 100  20   0
Searcy AR         79  63  75  58 /  50  90  70  10
Stuttgart AR      81  65  73  62 /  40  90  90  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 7 AM CDT this morning through Monday morning
for ARZ004-005-014-024-031-032-039-042>044-052>055-062-063-
066>068-103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-
221>223-230-237-238-240-241-313-340-341.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...74
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...74