557
FXUS64 KLZK 062337
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
637 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

Some pulse, relatively short lived convection will be possible
across southern parts of the state this afternoon/evening with
some northward propagation possible. Other than locally heavy
downpours, an isolated storm or two may be able to briefly
produce gusty winds and hail.

Attention will be to the west of the state this evening and
tonight as conditions remain primed for widespread severe weather
across portions of OK/KS. Severe storms that develop from central
into northern parts of OK this evening are expected to eventually
merge into a robust line and head toward W/NW Arkansas. This line
of storms will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts,
torrential downpours and a few tornadoes.

Timing for this activity to reach NW Arkansas looks most likely
between 12-2 AM with a continued eastward progression through the
early morning hours. Latest CAMs continue to indicate a gradual
weakening of activity through 7-8 AM with the northern half of
the state most likely to see TS activity. Lowest confidence
for early morning precip lies along a corridor from west central
to central parts of the state. The southern extent of the line of
storms may impact these areas, but that remains uncertain.

Precip will depart by noon with little if any additional showers
and storms expected during the afternoon/evening hours on Tuesday.
Most of the state will see highs top out in the 80s F Tue
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Monday)
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

To begin the period, a strong storm system is expected to impact the
natural state...By Wednesday, Arkansas is expected to be located
within the warm sector of this system with dewpoints in the upper
60s to lower 70s and air temps in the 80s to lower 90s. With high
wind shear and high instability over the region, the chance for
severe weather looks likely with this system. All severe
weather modes will be possible (tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail).

By Wednesday evening into early Thursday morning...the front will
begin to move through the state with strong to severe thunderstorms
possible along and ahead of the front. Any discrete cells ahead of
the main line with pose a greater tornado risk. The line itself will
pose a greater damaging straight-line wind threat with quick spin up
tornadoes possible. Large hail is also a concern late Wednesday.
Please remain weather aware Wednesday as the threat for severe
weather appears likely across much of the state. Changes to the
forecast are possible so continue to check back for the latest
updates.

QPF values are expected to be highest across central and eastern
Arkansas in the long term. These areas could see anywhere from one
to two inches...elsewhere, locations could see up to an inch with
the least amounts expected across northwestern Arkansas.

Temperatures will be warmest head of the cold front on Wednesday
with highs in the mid 80s to lower 90s. Overnight temperatures will
be in the mid 60s to lower 70s. Post frontal passage...temperatures
will begin to feel more comfortable with highs in the upper 60s to
upper 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 635 PM CDT Mon May 6 2024

All sites will begin the period in VFR flight category on Monday
evening. A complex of thunderstorms will be making their way into
Arkansas and beginning to weakening impacting the central and
northern terminals directly by the early morning hours on Tuesday.
However, the CIGS will begin to lower to MVFR and the possibility of
IFR CIGS and VSBY at KHOT and KADF along with any northern and
central terminals impacted by the decaying thunderstorm complex. VFR
category in terms of CIGS will improve to VFR by Tuesday mid-day
across all terminals. Expect wind shear Tuesday morning across all
sites. Expect surface wind gusts in excess 25 knots across all sites
Tuesday afternoon and surface wind gusts in excess of 35+ knots in
any thunderstorm activity.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     69  86  67  87 /  50  40  10  60
Camden AR         69  87  69  89 /  20  10  10  30
Harrison AR       66  83  59  82 /  80  20   0  70
Hot Springs AR    69  86  65  87 /  30  20  20  40
Little Rock   AR  72  88  70  88 /  40  30  20  40
Monticello AR     72  88  72  90 /  20  20  10  20
Mount Ida AR      68  86  64  86 /  40  20  10  50
Mountain Home AR  66  84  60  85 /  80  50   0  70
Newport AR        70  85  67  87 /  40  40  10  50
Pine Bluff AR     70  86  70  89 /  20  20  20  30
Russellville AR   68  86  64  85 /  50  40  10  50
Searcy AR         69  86  67  87 /  40  30  20  50
Stuttgart AR      72  85  70  88 /  30  30  20  40

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...67
LONG TERM....73
AVIATION...74