Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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995 FXUS62 KMFL 170700 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 300 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Saturday) Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Overall, hazardous heat will continue to be the main weather headline across South Florida over the next few days with afternoon heat index values well into the triple digits. Today, a mid-level ridge over the southeastern Gulf will start to build over the Florida Peninsula, which will help stabilize the environment and keep conditions generally drier, but there will remain chances for a few showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon along sea breeze boundaries. While conditions will be less favorable for strong to severe storms than they have been in recent days, there could still be a storm capable of producing damaging wind gusts and small hail along the sea breeze. On Saturday, the mid-level ridge will remain over South Florida, while a trough pushes into the northern Gulf states and Southeast US. This setup will allow the airmass over the area to warm a bit more under south-southwest flow, and support isolated afternoon showers and thunderstorms along sea breeze boundaries. High temperatures today will peak in the low to mid 90s for most locations, with heat index values ranging from 103 to 107. A Heat Advisory has been issued for Miami-Dade County for heat index values above 105. On Saturday, high temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, reaching the mid to upper 90s across South Florida, with heat index values up to 110 possible. Additional heat advisories or warnings may be needed for several counties on Saturday afternoon. Overall, whether advisories or warnings are issued or not, anyone sensitive to heat should plan to avoid extended time outside or take cooling breaks and stay hydrated if required to be outside. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through Thursday) Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 The long term period will start off with one more day of hazardous heat as the hot and humid airmass remains over most of South FL on Sunday with south-southwest flow. Throughout the day, a frontal boundary associated with a mid-level trough over the Southeast US will gradually push across Central FL and into our area. Along and ahead of this frontal boundary there will be scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong. With the front not reaching our area until later in the day, high temperatures will be able to reach the low to mid 90s, with heat index values in the triple digits and potentially reaching advisory levels. As the front continues to slowly pass through the region on Monday, there will be chances for showers and thunderstorms, with some strong storms possible to start the new week. With a cooler airmass and more cloud coverage, high temperatures will be lower than on Sunday, generally in the upper 80s to low 90s, with heat index values near 100. After the front clears the area Monday night, a slightly cooler airmass will settle in through at least mid-week, providing relief from the recent stretch of heat with high temperatures likely in the upper 80s to low 90s across the area, and low temperatures in the 70s. With a drier airmass in place, shower and thunderstorm chances will be on the low side, but we could still see a few each afternoon along sea breeze boundaries. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 118 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Generally VFR conditions will prevail through the period, although some reduced flight categories in stratus will be possible this morning at all terminals. Additionally isolated-scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible at the east coast terminals from 18 to 00Z but low confidence in storm overage only warrants a VCSH with this package. Light and variable winds will trend W-SW at most sites, with the east coast sites seeing a shift to the SE in the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Mainly benign conditions today and over the weekend with light to moderate southwesterly to southerly flow. There will be some scattered showers and thunderstorms mainly over the Atlantic waters today and tomorrow, which could create locally chaotic seas at times and gusty winds. && .BEACHES... Issued at 257 AM EDT Fri May 17 2024 Light winds will lead to a low rip current risk along both the Atlantic and Gulf coasts today and over the weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 94 81 94 80 / 20 0 20 10 West Kendall 96 77 96 78 / 10 0 20 10 Opa-Locka 95 79 95 80 / 30 0 20 10 Homestead 95 79 94 80 / 10 0 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 92 80 93 80 / 30 10 20 20 N Ft Lauderdale 93 80 94 80 / 30 10 30 20 Pembroke Pines 96 80 96 80 / 30 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 93 76 94 77 / 20 10 30 20 Boca Raton 93 79 94 78 / 30 10 30 20 Naples 91 79 93 79 / 0 0 10 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ073-074-173-174. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Culver LONG TERM....Culver AVIATION...Carr